10-6-13

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Baseball Play of the Day October 06, 2013 6:12 AM by GT Staff

Baseball National League Divisional Playoffs Game 3

St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates (Total 6½) at 1:30 p.m. PST on TBS

Both pitchers Kelly Liriano have been dominating against these teams this season. We expect no different in this critical Game 3.

923 St. Louis Cardinals / 924 Pittsburgh Pirates UNDER 6½.

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Best Weekend Wagers with Weekend Warrior October 06, 2013 6:16 AM by Mark Mayer

Baseball National League Divisional Playoffs

921 Atlanta Braves +135: No Kershaw or Greinke to face so this game is Atlanta’s shot at winning this playoff series. Not many are favoring Braves, which puts us on their side.

NFL Football

418 St. Louis Rams -11½: Doesn’t everybody beat Jags by at least 2 TDs?

423 Detroit Lions +7: Lions ended one long road losing streak at Washington. Now they are after another (0-21-1 in Wisconsin in last 22).

432 Oakland Raiders +5: Chargers will feel the loss of defensive standout Freeney. Raiders play better with Pryor.

435 Houston Texans +6: Time for Schaub to rise up otherwise Twitter world will have him for dinner.

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NFL

Week 5

Eagles (1-3) @ Giants (0-4)—Both teams in freefall; winless Giants have 12 turnovers (-9) in four games, have been outscored 100-21 in last five halves and have only one TD on 25 drives in last two games, as banged-up OL can’t open holes or protect immobile QB Manning. Big Blue has been inside opponents’ 20-yard line once in last two games. Philly has been outscored 131-74 in last seven halves, as gimmicky fast-break offense flopped because defense can’t keep other team off field- they’ve allowed first down on 21 of last 41 3rd plays) and special teams allowed two TDs last week in Denver. Eagles are 17-8 vs spread in last 25 games as road underdog (1-1 this year); since ’09, Giants are 10-18-1 as a home favorite. Philly won eight of last ten series games, splitting last four; their 42-7 loss here LY was their first in last six visits to Swamp. Home favorites in divisional games are 9-4 vs spread so far this season. Three of four Eagle games went over the total.

Chiefs (4-0) @ Titans (3-1)—Unbeaten KC was 2-14 LY, so great story being written by Reid, canned after 14 (mostly good) years in Philly; Chiefs (+9) have 12 takeaways already, have given up only four TDs on 51 drives, allowing opponent inside its red zone four times (one TD, two FGs). On offense, they’ve run ball for 120.8 ypg, converted 24-59 (40.7%) of 3rd down plays, using scatback McCluster on key plays. Titans are off to solid 3-1 start, but lost QB Locker (hip) last week; in steps veteran Fitzpatrick, making 68th (23-41-1 W-L as starter Rams/Bills) NFL start, so he’s decent backup. Tennessee is also +9 in turnovers, with no giveaways in four games. Home side lost four of last six series games; Chiefs split two visits here, with last one in ’04. AFC West teams are 11-2 vs spread outside its division, 6-1 when favored; AFC South teams are 3-8 outside its division, 2-4 as an underdog (0-2 as HU). All four Chief games stayed under the total.

Ravens (2-2) @ Dolphins (3-1)—Well-coached Miami is 7-3 vs spread under Philbin in games where spread was 3 or less points; they’re 6-4 in last 10 games as home favorite (3-2 under Philbin). Fish lost first game Monday night, getting torched by Brees’ (30-39/397) passing- they won only home game so far on last-minute TD vs Falcons. Flacco threw five picks in 23-20 loss at Buffalo last week; Ravens covered once in last five games as a road dog- they’re 0-2 on foreign soil this year, converting just 11-38 on 3rd down—think Flacco misses Boldin/Pitta? Would expect Harbaugh to try and run ball more; they had only nine carries for 24 yards at Buffalo, with 54 dropbacks. Baltimore won last three series games by 14-18-16 points; they’ve won last two visits here, after losing four of previous five. Eight of last ten series totals were 38 or less. Last three Miami games went over the total; last three Raven games stayed under.

Jaguars (0-4) @ Rams (1-3)— Immense pressure on disappointing Rams to win this game, after getting smoked last three weeks, trailing 21-0/24-0/24-3 in three games; St Louis is double digit favorite for first time since ’04- they have total of 122 rushing yards in last three games, so expect them to try to establish some type of run game early on, vs Jaguar defense that allowed 177 rushing ypg in its last three tilts. Jax has been outscored 75-8 in first half of games, and that includes safety they got on blocked punt for first score of season. Rams won two of last three series games, with home side winning all three, all decided by a FG. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 4-1 vs spread this season; AFC South teams are 3-8 vs spread outside their division. Three of four Jaguar games stayed under total; three of four St Louis games went over. Jags owner Kahn tried to buy Rams but Kroenke had first dibs, as former minority (40%) owner.

Patriots (4-0) @ Bengals (2-2)—You get feeling Brady could have Tweeter from Varsity Blues as a WR and Pats would still score 30 points; they’ve only turned ball over once in last three games (+5) while converting 13-28 on third down in last two games. Unbeaten NE’s run defense will miss NT Willfork (achilles); they’ve allowed total of 155 rushing yards in last two games. Bengals scored 20-34 points in winning their two home games; they’re 4-2-1 in last seven games as home favorites, after being 3-13 in 16 games prior to that. Cincy lost field position battle in all four games, in part due to converting just 8 of last 25 third down plays. Pats are 7-2 in last nine games where spread was 3 or less points; Bengals are 16-8-1 in their last 25. Bengals lost four in row and seven of last eight series games, allowing 36.3 ppg in last four. Three of four NE games stayed under total, as Patriots allowed only one TD, four FGs on opponents’ last eight red zone drives.

Seahawks (4-0) @ Colts (3-1)—Unbeaten Seattle was down 20-3 at half in Houston last week, but defense shut Texans out in second half, scored tying TD with pick-6 in last 3:00 before they won with FG in OT, their ninth straight regular season win. Hawks ran for average of 169 ypg last three weeks, with mobile QB Wilson doing as much damage with his legs as his arm. Seattle is 3-2 in last five series games but lost two of three visits here; they’re 3-4 as road favorites under Carroll, 2-0 this year (won 12-7/23-20). Indy allowed one TD on 21 drives in sweeping road swing, including impressive 27-7 win at SF; they’re 7-4 as home dogs in post-Manning era, 8-2 SU at home under Pagano. Three of four Indy games stayed under the total. NFC South teams are 3-8 vs spread outside its division; NFC West teams are 7-4, 4-1 when favored. NFL-wide, non-divisional home underdogs are 9-6 vs spread this season.

Lions (3-1) @ Packers (1-2)—Green Bay won 14 of last 15 series games (Rodgers didn’t play in loss), taking last four by average score of 31-24; Lions have lost 22 games in a row in Wisconsin, 19 in row at Lambeau, with last three all by 7 or less points. Last Lion win at Lambeau was 1991. Pack won its last four post-bye games, scoring 31.5 ppg, but they’re 1-2 this season, despite scoring 11 TDs on 34 drives- they lost last game in Cincinnati on fumble return for TD by Bengals in last 4:00. Detroit scored 27+ points in all three of its wins; they’ve averaged 7.4+ yards/pass attempt in three of four games. Lions had four TDs last week; one by defense, other three on drives of 51 or less yards, so defense/special teams are creating easier chances for what is a good offense. Bush returned to spark run game (159 yards) last week (76.3/first three games). NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 9-5 vs spread this year, 3-3 if spread is more than five points. All three Packer games went over the total.

Saints (4-0) @ Bears (3-1)—Curious to see Saints in second road (outdoor) game; offense was dominant (11 TDs/31 drives) in three home wins, but they were lucky to win 16-14 on stormy Week 2 day in Tampa, kicking three FGs on four trips in Bucs’ red zone, plus throwing a pick-6. Lack of running game (81.3 ypg) could hurt here by prolific Bear team scoring 31.8 ppg (9 TDs on last 37 drives, plus three defensive TDs in last three games). Chicago has 3+ takeaways in all four games (+5). NO is 9-5 in last 14 games where spread was 3 or less points, 6-4 in last ten non-divisional road games. Home side won last five series games with average total in last four, 51.3; Saints lost last6 three visits here by 25-8-3 points. NFC South road teams are 0-4 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC North teams are 3-4-1 outside their division. All four Chicago games went over total, with average total, 60.3; three of four New Orleans games stayed under total.

Panthers (1-2) @ Cardinals (2-2)—Carolina won seven of last nine series games, winning four of last five visits here; Rivera is 0-2 in post-bye games, losing 30-2/19-14. Panthers are 5-14 in first half of season in his tenure, 9-7 in second half. Carolina’s two losses are by total of six points, as Bills drove length of field in last minute to nip Carolina 24-23 in its only road game. Arizona beat Detroit in its only home game, despite giving up a defensive TD; three of their four games were decided by 4 or less points. Cardinals 2-0 in games with spreads of 3 or less points this year, after being 4-10-1 in last 15 such games under Whisenhunt. NFC South non-divisional road teams are 0-4 vs spread this season; NFC West teams are 7-4 outside their division. Arizona struggled on offense (two TDs/24 drives) in splitting pair on road last two weeks; they’re 7-34 on 3rd down last three games, but Fitzgerald had strong half last week, as Redbirds rallied from 10-0 down at half to win at Tampa.

Chargers (2-2) @ Raiders (1-3)—San Diego won last three series games by 12-8-3 points; they’ve won eight of last nine visits here, with only loss in ’10. Three of Bolts’ four games were won by exactly three points; Rivers seems rejuvenated (25-50 on 3rd down, only two INTs), averaging 8.6/6.7/8.2 yards/pass attempt in last three games. Flynn was disappointing (18-31/217, two turnovers) in first Oakland start; Raiders are 3-7-1 in last 11 games as a home underdog- they’ve had only 13 plays of 20+ yards in first four games. Chargers scored 28+ points in three of four games, and lost fourth game in last minute in Nashville- they’re 7-12 in last 19 games as a road favorite. Divisional home dogs are 4-2 vs spread this season. Three of four Charger games went over total; three of four Oakland games stayed under. Game has been pushed back to 11:30 ET Sunday night because of time needed to switch from baseball configuration to football.

Broncos (4-0) @ Cowboys (2-2)—Dallas plays Tampa 2 defense which Colts ran when Dungy coached there, so Manning practiced against it for seven years; Rivers was 35-42/392 against Cowboys last week, what will #18 do here? Chargers averaged 8.2 yards/pass attempt vs Dallas, Eli Manning averaged 9.5 in opener; Pokes will need to play their A game to stay in this one. Denver is a juggernaut right now, scoring 39.8 ppg in first four games (20 TDs on 44 drives, only eight 3/outs, with three special teams TDs as well). Broncos wear defenses out; they’ve scored 31+ second half points in three of four games and have 13 TDs, one FG in 17 red zone drives. Dallas scored 67 points in winning its two home games this year; they’re 4-2 as home dogs since ’06, 2-1 under Garrett. Broncos are 7-2 as road favorites under Fox, 14-2 as favorites with Manning at QB. NFC East teams are 3-9 vs spread outside the division, 2-5 on road, 1-4 if getting points.

Texans (2-2) @ 49ers (2-2)—Schaub has thrown pick-6 in three straight games, including horrific one last week in last 3:00 while Houston was in Seattle territory nursing 20-13 lead; brutal loss for Texans, who led 20-3 at half and have struggled beating the better teams. Houston has only two TDs on 24 drives in last two games; they had 6-0 lead at Baltimore in Week 3 before giving up TDs on offense/special teams in 90-second span, so they’ve been beating themselves. 49ers scored 34-35 points in two wins, 3-7 in two losses; they turned ball over seven times (-6) in two losses. Niners are 12-4-1 as home favorites under Harbaugh, 1-1 this year. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 4-1 vs spread; AFC South teams are 3-8 outside the division, 2-4 on road, 2-4 as underdogs. Home side won only two games in series, with both games decided by FG. Non-divisional home favorites of 7+ points are 7-4 vs spread. Three of four Houston games went over the total.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence

3* houston
3* oakland

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Bob Akmens basports

Patriots over 45.5
Packers -7
Denver over 56.5

Pirates
Dodgers

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Erin Rynning

20* Miami Under 43.5

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SB Professor NFL Picks

NFL 3.0:

1 PM
424. Green Bay Packers -7

11:30 PM
431. San Diego Chargers -4

NFL Original:


417. Jacksonville Jaguars +11.5

Rest of Games
424. Green Bay Packers -7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

"Mr Chalk" 2013 MLB Season

Ben lee lost a tough one on Saturday with the Tigers -$120/A's.

For Sunday "Mr Chalk" likes the pirates -$150Cardinals.

Ben lee is 4-5 -$332 for the week 105-67 +$505 for the 2013 MLB season.

For Sunday Ben lee likes for $50 each.

(1) Cowboys +8/Broncos

(2) Lions +7/Packers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Northcoast
3'* New Orleans -1
3* Atlanta -9'

marquee under 42 hou/sf

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POWERSWEEP

KEY SELECTIONS
4* New Orleans by 7 over CHICAGO - NO is coming off their Monday Night’r and they’ve covered 3 straight the week after. At some point the Saints emotions will run dry in this season of redemption but it won’t come this week versus an NFC div leader. All the Saints talk has centered around the reunion of Payton and Brees while new DC Rob Ryan keeps dialing up defenses which has held its first 3 opp’s to 296 ypg and 16 FD/gm. Some may be impressed with the Bears offense avg 32 ppg but much of that has been on big plays incl 2 last week leading to 97 yards. Excluding the Minnesota game, Chicago has been held to 17 FD/gm meaning teams will play bend but don’t break D forcing the mistake prone Cutler (25-17 ratio L2Y) to beat them. On the flip side the Bears defense is allowing 65% comp vs Dalton, Ponder, Big Ben and Stafford and now must face Drew Brees who has avg’d 351 ypg & 68% excl the rain soaked TB game. If NO’s covered Monday then Payton & Brees have gone 15-1 ATS and if they are off a loss the duo has covered 6 straight.

3* CLEVELAND by 10 over Buffalo

OTHER SELECTION

2* Carolina by 7 over ARIZONA - Prior to the bye the Panthers posted their first shutout since 2008 and it must be noted teams that earn a shutout prior to their bye are 0-7 SU/ATS losing by a 25-19 avg score being outgained by 75 ypg. The bye week however came at an opportune time for CAR as a mobile Newton will help alleviate the man-to-man coverage the Cardinals prefer while giving him time to work with new WR Ginn (6 rec, 22.2, 2 td’s L/2 gms). He along with Smith (14, 10.1, 1 td), LaFell (7 rec. 9.4, 2 td L/2 gms) and TE Olson (16, 12.1, 1 td) give Newton options he was unaccustomed to. LW’s results also give some very good value vs ARZ as while they stayed out on the East Coast all week to acclimate to the humidity they only outgained TB by 43 yds. TB’s rookie QB masked the fact that ARZ lost 3 OLB’s to IR LW (get stud LB Washington back from susp here) and that’s a great matchup vs CAR run game vs an overrated #16 Def giving up 3rd Dn conversions at 40% TY. Add in the fact ARZ lacks a run game (79 ypg 3.6) and we’ll take the road team here.

SYSTEM
Play on a double digit favorite that gave up 35 or more points.
2002-2012: 19-7 73%
THIS WEEKS PLAY:
ST LOUIS

NFL OVER - UNDERS

3* SD/OAK - OVER

3* CAR/ARZ - OVER

3* KC/TEN - UNDER

2* NE/CIN - UNDER

2* JAX/STL - UNDER

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JMR SPORTS CONSULTANTS

10/6/2013 Plays

MLB Sides (6-5...890)

No Plays

MLB Totals (5-3...430)

No Plays

NCAAF Sides (11-6...1,330)

No Plays

NCAAF Totals (8-6...620)

No Plays

NFL Sides (5-1...1750)

New England pk

Jacksonville +10-

Arizonia +3

New York -2

NFL Totals (4-0...2,600)

Green Bay Over 54

New York Under 53

Denver Over 56

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EAGLE EYE SPORTS---Randy Rose
Phil Eagles+112
KC Chiefs-2.5
----------------------------
EAGLE EYE SPORTS----Winning-Points
10* Tenn Titans+2.5

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The Winners Circle

Sunday Football Plays

10* Play St. Louis -11.5 over Jacksonville (TOP NFL PLAY) 1:00 PM EST

Jacksonville has lost 4 consecutive games against the spread and they have also lost 15 of the last 20 games against the spread coming off an UNDER the total in their last game. Jacksonville has lost 20 of the last 31 games against the spread when playing as an underdog and they are only averaging 7 points a game on offense this season.


10* Play Green Bay -7 over Detroit (TOP NFL PLAY) 1:00 PM EST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TheSportsCapper Football

Sunday

100* Play Indianapolis +3 over Seattle (NFL TOP PLAY)

Indianapolis has covered the spread in 18 of the last 24 games coming off two or more wins by ten points or more and they have also covered the spread in 6 of the last 7 games after allowing 14 points or less in their last game. Indianapolis has covered the spread in 7 of the last 8 games after gaining 400 or more total yards in their last game and they are averaging 26 points a game on offense this season.


100* Play Dallas +7.5 over Denver (NFL TOP PLAY)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

XpertPicks

Sunday Football Plays


· Play Indianapolis +3 over Seattle (TOP NFL PLAY)---RISK 10% OF YOUR BANKROLL
1:00 PM EST

Indianapolis has covered the spread in 7 of the last 11 home games when playing as an underdog and they have also covered the spread in 7 of the last 9 games after having won three of the last four games. Indianapolis has covered the spread in 11 of the last 13 games coming off a road win by 21 points or more and they are only allowing an average of 12 points a game on defense this season.


· Play Philadelphia +1 over New York Giants (TOP NFL PLAY)---RISK 10% OF YOUR BANKROLL
1:00 PM EST

Philadelphia has covered the spread in 18 of the last 25 games coming off a loss by 21 points or more and they are averaging 24 points a game on offense this season. New York has lost 5 of the last 6 games coming off three or more losses by ten points or more and they are allowing an average of 36 points a game on defense this season.


· Play Oakland +4.5 over San Diego (TOP NFL PLAY)---RISK 10% OF YOUR BANKROLL
11:30 PM EST

San Diego has lost 14 of the last 16 games against the spread coming off two or more OVER the totals and they have lost 8 of the last 10 games against the spread after gaining 400 or more total yards in their last game. San Diego has lost 5 of the last 7 games against the spread when playing in the month of October and they are allowing an average of 25 points a game on defense this season.




· Play Baltimore +3 over Miami (TOP NFL PLAY) ---RISK 5% OF YOUR BANKROLL
· Play Houston +6 over San Francisco (TOP NFL PLAY) ---RISK 5% OF YOUR BANKROLL