11-3-13

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CKO
10 *BUFFALO over Kansas City
Late Score Forecast:
*BUFFALO 26 - Kansas City 20
Eight cheers for Kansas City, which has likely surprised even themselves by getting off to a
perfect 8-0 start. But the oddsmakers are now exacting a heavy price for supporting the Chiefs,
who have been favored in every game except one in 2013 and have now failed to cover the last
two weeks. Those who have watched the team
closely are beginning to notice a few flaws in their perfection. Injuries have thinned the team’s
TEs, and RB Jamaal Charles is showing wear and tear while breaking fewer big runs. QB Alex Smith
has been sacked 8 times the last two games. Meanwhile, the Bills are 4-0 vs. the spread at home
under new coach Doug Marrone, 2-2 SU, with the two losses by 2 and 3 points. The Buffalo
defense sacked Drew Brees four times last week in the Superdome, where the Saints are virtually
unbeatable. And speed back C.J. Spiller (ankle) has a good chance to return this week after being
held out in New Orleans. This does not figure to be an easy day for K.C.

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THE GOLD SHEET
♦♦♦♦♦ KEY RELEASES ♦♦♦♦♦
DALLAS by 22 over Minnesota
INDIANAPOLIS by 12 over Houston
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
OVER the total in the - Chicago-Green Bay - game

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PLAYBOOK / MARC LAWRENCE
5* BEST BET
Pittsburgh over NEW ENGLAND by 6
How phony are the 6-2 AFC East division two-game leading
Patriots, you ask? Plenty. Not only are they being outgained 19
YPG, their sure-fi re Hall of Fame QB Tom Brady (74.9) doesn’t even
rate in the Top 20 starting quarterbacks in the current rankings.
That’s directly attributable to the lack of receiving personnel – and
sooner or later, you just know it’s going to bite the Pats in a hard
way. To make matters worse, Brady’s meat-hammer of a throwing
hand (thanks, Tom Pelissero) was good for only 116 yards in last
week’s ‘smoke-and-mirrors’ win over the Dolphins as the Pats have
now lost the stats in four of their last fi ve contests. Today, they
look to hold on with the Bye Week up next knowing they’ve yet
to eclipse 30 points in a game this season and are just 1-4 SUATS
in their last fi ve games against teams from the AFC North. The 2-5
Steelers enter in desperation-mode, sporting a 4-0 SUATS mark
in their last four games against teams from the AFC East. They
are also 8-1 SU and 7-2 ATS in games off a SU favorite loss under
Mike Tomlin when facing a .600 or greater foe off a win, including
4-0 SUATS away. Going back to the basics, Pittsburgh pounds out
an all-important win in Foxborough at the Patriots’ expense. The
Clincher: Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger is 8-0 SUATS as a
dog in his NFL career versus a sub .800 opponent off a win.
4* BEST BET
There was a time when just the mention of a defending Super Bowl
champion sent shivers into an opposing team’s locker room. It was
always a ‘get up’ game for the opponent, for sure. And by the
DNA that surrounds these two teams, it’s never a diffi cult thing for
Cleveland to circle the calendar when Baltimore comes to town.
But what should be and what is are two different things whenever
these Hatfi elds and McCoys lock horns. That’s confi rmed by the
fact the Ravens have owned the Browns since their departure to
Baltimore, going 22-7 SU – including 11-0 the last eleven meetings,
and 5-0 SUATS the last fi ve here. And if ever a defending Super
Bowl champion was in need of a victory, it’s this week as the Black
Birds limp into the Dawg Pound riding a two-game losing skid.
That sets the table for today’s fray as our tell-all database reports
that defending Super Bowl champions, sporting a losing record
off a pair of losses, are 12-1 SU and 11-2 ATS in division games
since 1980. While the Browns have shown improvement under
new coach Rob Chudzinski, they are -34 net YPG in games since
October as opposed to the fi rst four weeks of the season, meaning
regression is beginning to settle in. And while the post-Tomlin
trend (teams in games after facing Pittsburgh’s Mike Tomlin teams)
is present, the week of rest for the Ravens is a negating factor. It’s
time the champs return to form and the Browns look to be the
perfect punching bag. The Clincher: the Ravens are 5-0 SUATS
in games off a Bye Week under John Harbaugh.
INCREDIBLE STAT OF THE WEEK
The Kansas CIty Chiefs are 1-13 SU in games against teams hailing from the AFC East,
including 0-9 ATS the last nine.

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POINTWISE
PROFESSIONAL
FOOTBALL PROPHECY
NFL KEY RELEASES
TENNESSEE over St Louis RATING: 3
SEATTLE over Tampa Bay RATING: 4
PHILADELPHIA over Oakland RATING: 4
GREEN BAY over Chicago RATING: 5
CAROLINA over Atlanta RATING: 5

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POWERPLAYS
Pro Football
4* panthers 31 falcons 18
3* cowboys 37 vikings 16
3* saints 33 jets 16
2* seahawks 32 bucs 8

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SPORTS REPORTER
BEST BET
*CAROLINA over ATLANTA by 20
The Panthers have been pulverizing people. Most of those people have been
bad teams: 38-0 vs. the Giants; 35-10 at the Vikings; 30-15 vs. St. Louis;
31-13 at Tampa Bay. Is Atlanta a bad team? We’ll see. We didn’t think much
of the Falcons before the season began, picking them to be “Poor” against
the spread. Atlanta is currently 2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS. They won and covered by
the thinnest of slivers against St. Louis and Tampa Bay, who are relatively
awful. Running is Carolina’s strength, and Atlanta has had a bunch of injuries
at the linebacker spot – the spot that happens to be the point of most of
the tackling against runs if your defense and team are going to survive the
typical football game. If Carolina’s strength is destined to assert itself again
in this match-up, then the Panthers can stick to what has been working,
which is relatively simple: In the 18-point vs. Tampa Bay (a good run defense
that allowed had been allowing 3.8 yards per carry), the Panthers rushed
for 4.8 yards per carry. Carolina QB Cam Newton was 20-for-24 on passes
that went just 10 yards or less in the air from the line of scrimmage. In their
current three-game winning streak, 55 of Newton’s 75 pass attempts have
been in that relatively short distance range. The Panthers have long been a
team that when playing well, ran plays the opponents knew was coming yet
couldn’t stop or contain well enough. “It’s the culmination of a lot of things,”
said Newton, who has kept it 50 times on rushes and has 3 rushing TDs so
far. “When you’ve got an offensive line that’s protecting the way they protect,
when you’ve got a running back that’s running, you’ve got receivers making
plays after the catch, it’s really not hard.” Alrighty, then.
CAROLINA, 34-14
BEST BET
*DALLAS over MINNESOTA by 24
Vikings owner Zygi Wilf is facing massive fines for his involvement in a fraud
and racketeering case in New Jersey -- where it is charged that he acted with
“bad faith and evil motive.” Ironically, the event in question wasn’t when the
Vikings’ alleged braintrust gave the then-winless Giants that Monday Night
victory by playing the horrible Josh Freeman at quarterback for the entire
game! The Vikings, as noted here a few weeks ago, have three lousy quarterbacks.
In the weeks since they returned from London, where they got their
only win against then-reeling Pittsburgh, go-to running back Adrian Peterson
has not emerged a savior because no running back can make significant
yardage against decent 8- and 9-man fronts. In their fantasies, people see
Peterson rushing for 180 yards and the Vikings winning every game. In reality,
Peterson has done that in the past, and the Vikings have still lost and not
covered. Receiver Greg Jennings, the ex-Packer who knocked Aaron Rodgers
after he joined his new team, probably wanted to crawl back into his
old team’s locker room after Minnesota’s 44-31 home loss to Green Bay on
Sunday night. That was yet another game where the Vikings’ return squad
scored first, leaving a lot of time on the clock for the offense and defense
to screw up royally. The defensive secondary was already missing its best
interceptor Harrison Smith, and now strong safety Jamarca Sanford could
be out. The Cowboys, to the outside world, are in turmoil because they lost a
close one (just as we predicted, by 1 point!) and WR Dez Bryant is yelling at
everyone. The 1-6 SU and 2-5 ATS Vikings would probably welcome that kind
of aggravation.
DALLAS, 41-17
RECOMMENDED
*NEW ENGLAND over PITTSBURGH by 16
After adding a little life to their listless season with two straight wins, the
Steelers fell on their faces against the Raiders – a team who has bedeviled
them for two years running. Now they travel to Gillette Stadium to face a
team that has always given them problems. The problem is, New England
isn’t playing that great, even with that shiny 6-3 record. No one’s missing more throws this year than Tom Brady and the bad receivers aren’t wholly at
fault. But that, and season ending injuries to Vince Wilfork and Jerrod Mayo,
hasn’t completely dented this resilient squad. Stevan Ridley is playing better
and giving the running game legs while Aqib Talib is playing the best football
of his career and holding it down in the secondary, which ranks 11th in football
with only 225.6 yards allowed per game. Except for 27 points to the Saints –
understandable given the competition – the Patriots have given up a mere 30
points in three home games. That kind of effort will be more than enough to
keep it competitive against a dysfunctional Steelers offense that lacks identity
and confidence. This squad hasn’t cracked 30 points all season and has
only cracked 20 points twice this year, against Chicago and Minnesota. That’s
not going to be enough against a Patriots team looking to enter the bye on
a high – and not the Aaron Hernandez kind of high.
NEW ENGLAND, 33-17

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PLAYBOOK / VICTOR KING
'TOTALS' TIPSHEET
2* Colts @ Texans - ‘UNDER’
2* SPEEDEE'S 'UNDER' OF THE WEEK
Ravens @ Browns

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RED SHEET
PRO FOOTBALL
Indianapolis 31 - HOUSTON 17 - (8:30 - NBC) -- Line opened at Indianapolis minus 1, and is
now minus 2½. These 2squads had last week off, which was badly needed by a banged up Texan
outfit which has seen all ofits aspirations melt, with 5 straight losses after opening with a pair of
narrow wins. By the way, that 5-game slide is its worst since '05. Indy has proven its worth with
a pair of noteworthy wins, namely a27-7 triumph at SanFran (30-pt cover, & a 39-33 win over
Denver - the relentless Broncos' lone flaw).Luck is healthy & 10/3 for the season, with Houston's
QB & RB troubles proving disastrous.
RATING 88: INDIANAPOLIS

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Fairway Jay

10* Bengals -3

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River City Sharps - 3 Units Redskins

San Diego Chargers at Washington Redskins

Redskins PK

We really like the angle playing against the West Coast team travelling East for a 1 p.m. start. The Redskins are coming off a tough loss last week to the Broncos and even though they are 2-5 on the season, they still can stay in touch of the division lead with a win Sunday. Philip Rivers has been much more consistent this season for the Chargers and he will face a porous Redskin defense. Fortunately for Washington, they do get Merriweather back this week, which should help the pass defense. This just feels like a game the Chargers lose and the east coast travel is difficult for any team. The Skins take it to keep their slim division hopes alive! The Sharps say...

SHARPS PLAY - 2 UNITS ON REDSKINS

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Today's NBA Picks

Minnesota at New York

The Knicks take on the 2-0 Timberwolves and look to build on their 13-5 ATS record in their last 18 games against a team with a winning SU record. New York is the pick (-4) according to Dunkel, which has the Knicks favored by 8. Dunkel Pick: New York (-4). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 3 Time Posted: 6:00 a.m. EST

Game 701-702: Boston at Detroit (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Boston 117.216; Detroit 118.943 Dunkel Line & Total: Detroit by 1 1/2; 184 Vegas Line & Total: Detroit by 9 1/2; 191 Dunkel Pick: Boston (+9 1/2); Under

Game 703-704: Washington at Miami (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Washington 111.905; Miami 132.626 Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 20 1/2; 208 Vegas Line & Total: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 705-706: Brooklyn at Orlando (6:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Brooklyn 119.224; Orlando 110.785 Dunkel Line & Total: Brooklyn by 8 1/2; 204 Vegas Line & Total: Brooklyn by 6; 196 Dunkel Pick: Brooklyn (-6); Over

Game 707-708: Phoenix at Oklahoma City (7:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Phoenix 115.432; Oklahoma City 123.884 Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 8 1/2; 195 Vegas Line & Total: No Line Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 709-710: Minnesota at New York (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 114.182; New York 123.290 Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 9; 202 Vegas Line & Total: New York by 4; 195 Dunkel Pick: New York (-4); Over

Game 711-712: Atlanta at LA Lakers (9:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 112.567; LA Lakers 119.033 Dunkel Line & Total: LA Lakers by 6 1/2; 197 Vegas Line & Total: Atlanta by 2 1/2; 205 Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers (+2 1/2); Under

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Today's NHL Picks

New Jersey at Minnesota

The Wild come in riding a 5-1 record in their last 6 home games and look to take advantage of a Devils' team that is 4-22 in it last 26 road games. Minnesota is the pick (-175) according to Dunkel, which has the Wild favored by 1 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-175). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 3 Time Posted 7:00 a.m. EST

Game 51-52: Dallas at Ottawa (1:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 11.064; Ottawa 10.750 Dunkel Line & Total: Dallas by 1/2; 6 Vegas Line & Total: Ottawa (-135); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+115); Over

Game 53-54: Calgary at Chicago (7:30 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: Calgary 10.753; Chicago 11.747 Dunkel Line & Total: Chicago by 1; 5 Vegas Line & Total: Chicago (-245); 5 1/2 Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-245); Under

Game 55-56: New Jersey at Minnesota (8:00 p.m. EST) Dunkel Ratings: New Jersey 10.783; Minnesota 12.060 Dunkel Line & Total: Minnesota by 1 1/2; 4 Vegas Line & Total: Minnesota (-175); 5 Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (-175); Under

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NY POST WILDCAT

Balt/Cleve UNDER

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Sixth Sense
Minnesota +10
Minnesota/Dallas over 48
St Louis +3
Buffalo +3
Washington PK
San Diego/Washington over 51
Pittsburgh +7
Houston +1.5

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bookiemonsters
166-124-3 run

POD devils under 5