11-3-13

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Free Selection from Arthur Ralph Sports

Our Free Plays are 1120-847 (57% ) over the last 5 1/2 years !

Free winner Sun Carolina Panthers -7

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The Gold Medal Club NFL Selections 03/11/2013
#401 Atlanta +7.5
#403 Minnesota +10
25* # 407 Tennessee -2.5

25* # 410 Buffalo +4

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R.A.W. FOOTBALL - SUNDAY

4* BEST BET = SAN DIEGO
3* = CAROLINA
3* = KANSAS CITY
2* = OAKLAND
2* = GREEN BAY (Monday night)

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ATS lock club

7u dal/minno over49
7u baltimore -2
2u 2t parlay of previous plays
5u Pitts +6-
5u Philly/oak under 45

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Sharps share NFL season's biggest betting surprises

Football bettors have hit the halfway mark of the NFL schedule, and boy has it been a wild ride so far. There have been plenty of surprises and a lot of preseason predictions have gone up in smoke. Even the wiseguys have been shocked by some of the events in the first half of the season.

We ask some of football betting’s sharpest minds – our Covers Experts – about which first-half result has surprised them the most as we heading into Week 9 of the schedule:

Marc Lawrence – “The continued success of both the Seahawks and Colts is a bit surprising. Each team overachieved behind rookie quarterbacks and figured to take a step back this season. Especially so for Indianapolis, which made the playoffs behind Andrew Luck despite allowing more yards than they gained for the season. With Luck's favorite target, Reggie Wayne, out for the year, look for the expected plunge to happen sooner than later.”

Bruce Marshall – “The Texans looked almost flawless entering the season, with offseason upgrades that seemed to push them even closer to their first Super Bowl bid. But no one really believed the worst-case scenario for Matt Schaub, who is effectively done as the QB in Houston at midseason after being bypassed in favor of Case Keenum for the starting assignment this week against Indy. Gary Kubiak's job could be in jeopardy.”

Bryan Power – “Though I had the Chiefs improving drastically this year and making the playoffs, I think it’s safe to assume no one had them standing as the NFL's last remaining unbeaten at 8-0. One more win and they will have already exceeded their projected win total in Vegas from before the season. Some may have already won that bet as the number opened at 7.5.”

Teddy Covers – “The Chargers looked nothing short of inept in the preseason. Their offensive line was in shambles, their defense torched, and their receiving corps limited. Yet this team is a couple of plays from being 6-1. Philip Rivers looks like a Pro Bowler again and their suspect offensive line has been blowing open holes for a strong running game that was non-existent last year or in August.”

Jesse Schule – "I'm definitely surprised that the Patriots have been able to win six of their first eight games. I bet on New England to go under the total of 11 wins. They have been lucky to win close games in Buffalo and a miracle comeback against the Saints. But once again Brady and Belichick are weaving their magic in New England, keeping the Pats a contender."

Matt Fargo – "I'm going more outside the box and going with 0-7 Tampa Bay. While they likely weren't going to contend for the NFC South title, they were expected to make a playoff push as proven by their season win total of 7.5. The Buccaneers finished 7-9 last season, so expectations were high but now they have a new quarterback, a star running back lost for the season and a lame duck coach on the sidelines that many seem to think has lost his team. He very well might have."

Doc’s Sports – “I think the biggest surprise for the NFL season is the top-to-bottom strength of the AFC West. We all knew Denver would be dominant. I had the Chiefs tagged as a playoff contender, and my Over 7.5 bet on their season win total was one of the easiest bets I have ever made. However, the Chargers and Raiders have been huge surprises. Philip Rivers looks like he is playing in his prime again, and the Raiders look like they have finally found a capable quarterback in Terrelle Pryor. I think there is a good chance that the AFC West will send two teams into the playoffs as wild cards.”

Will Rogers – “The Houston Texans, despite out-gaining all but one opponent this season, are 2-5 and almost a surefire bet to miss the playoffs. With Andrew Luck already well on his way to becoming one of the best QBs in the league, it appears as if the Texans' window has already closed in the AFC South.”

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Football lines that make you go hmmm...
By JASON LOGAN

NFL

New Orleans Saints at New York Jets (+5.5, 45.5)

As mentioned above, the Jets allowed the Bengals to light it up for 325 yards passing and five TDs through the air this Sunday. And somehow, books expect them to keep Drew Brees and the Saints within six points?

Yeah, this game is outside in the Meadowlands, where early weather reports say temperatures in the low 50s and 11 mph winds. And yes, the Jets will definitely have the pride factor, wanting to make up for last weekend’s letdown.

Head coach Rex Ryan didn’t want to further poison his team after the loss to Cincinnati and skipped film session Monday, stating “If we don't play better pass defense than we played this past week, (Brees) will throw for 700 yards."

With the bye around the corner and plenty of questions surrounding the team after alternating wins and losses all season, New York could be counting down the days until some time off.

The Saints average 269.7 yards passing away from the Big Easy – compared to 341.5 at home – and don’t score nearly as many points on the road as they do inside the Superdome. But getting a 6-1 team that just put up 332 yards passing and five TDs at this spread seems like a belated Halloween treat.

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NFL line watch: Wait out Seahawks' big spread
By ART ARONSON

Each week during the pro football season, Covers Expert Art Aronson looks at the NFL odds and tells you which spread to bet now, which one to bet later, and which total to watch as the week plays out.

Spread to bet now

Atlanta Falcons (+9.5) at Carolina Panthers

If you don't mind laying about 20 cents extra, you can still get the Falcons at 9.5. The line is dropping though, with 9’s and 7.5’s starting to predominate.

How the mighty have fallen. After getting shellacked 27-13 by Arizona last weekend, Atlanta enters this game at just 2-5. The surging Panthers are second only to the Saints at 4-3 in the NFC South, winners of three straight.

Carolina has scored a combined 96 points on its recent three-game surge but bettors aren't being fooled, as those three victories have come against teams with a combined four wins between them (Vikings, Rams, Bucs).

If you think that Atlanta has something up its sleeve this weekend, likely best to jump on board as soon as possible.

Spread to wait on

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks (-18.5)

No team in the NFL enjoys a home-field advantage more than the Seahawks. The fans, dubbed the "12th Man", are so loud during the opposing teams' offensive series that they've consistently induced the most false starts penalties over the last half decade. Players are simply unable to hear their quarterback making the calls.

This line opened at a whopping 18.5 points, but is starting to drop already. Seattle is coming off back-to-back divisional road contests and barely escaped St. Louis with a win Monday night. With a game in Atlanta next week, bettors are wary of a letdown vs. the lowly Bucs, who have nothing to lose.

Look for the Seahawks to roll in this one, but wait a little closer to kickoff before getting down.

Total to watch

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (45)

Over bettors have feasted on Sunday night's this season, so if you think the Colts and Texans are going to follow suit this weekend, you may want to wait a bit closer to kickoff. This line opened at 45, but for the most part 44.5 dominates the board.

While the Colts are coming off a big 39-33 win at home over the Broncos two weeks ago, they have gone 3-4 O/U this year, including 0-3 O/U on the road. Indianapolis may have a hard time duplicating its points output in Houston.

Despite their 2-5 record, the Texans are the highest-rated defensive unit in the league, giving up an average of just 267.7 total yards per game. And the Colts give up an average of just 18.7 points per game this year.

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Inside the stats: AFC East is Kansas City's Kryptonite
By MARC LAWRENCE

Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards. Here are this week’s findings:

Standing eight count

Imagine being a 10-win team last year and now a losing squad at this stage of the season. How difficult of a job is it for a coach to get his team psyched to play this week? Plenty.

According to our database, losing teams in Game 8 of the season who won 10 or more games last year are 23-43-1 ATS since 1980, including 15-40-1 ATS if these same teams allow 21 or more PPG on the season.

A total of three teams on this week’s card figure to taking “Standing 8-Counts”, namely Arkansas State, Kansas State and Tulsa.

Talk about being staggered: After going 32-8 combined in 2012, this triumvirate enters this week sporting a cumulative 7-13 record.

Worse, if these wobbly teams are off a win in their last game, they become a 5-10 SU and 2-13 ATS punching bag, including 0-10 ATS when off a double-digit win. With that, look for the K-State Wildcats to take it squarely on the chin this week.

Tougher than the rest

College football teams who face the toughest schedule one season are solid pointspread plays the next season.

That’s confirmed by a rock-solid 56 percent ATS overall mark on nearly 400 plays since 1980.

Bring them into a game off a SU/ATS loss and they improve to 60 percent (55-37). Better yet, when they are playing off back-to-back SU/ATS losses they zoom to 19-4 ATS.

We’ll see just how tough the Florida Gators are this Saturday when they take on Georgia in the “World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party” in Jacksonville.

Smoke and mirrors

Following up with our “leaking oil” theory (playing against favorites who have lost the stats in each of their previous three games), and after a tumultuous run the past two weeks, these plays now stand at 11-15 ATS overall this season, including 8-10 in CFB and 3-5 in the NFL.

Plays would be against Air Force and Rutgers on the college gridiron, along with Indianapolis in the NFL.

ITS

There’s no change in the accounting of teams that are 100 percent perfect “In The Stats” (ITS) in all games played this season these perfect squads. They include:

• Arizona State, Baylor, BYU, Florida State, Michigan State, Oregon, and (surprise) Western Kentucky.

• Miami Ohio and New Mexico State remain winless.

In the NFL the only perfect ITS team – winless - is Minnesota.

Overwhelming

There have been 65 Overs and 54 Unders in the NFL this season.

And once again, leading the charge have been the totals results in non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC). These games have gone 27-11 O/U, including 3-0 O/U last week.

This week’s potential non-conference Overs would be New Orleans at N.Y. Jets, Tennessee at St. Louis, San Diego at Washington, and Philadelphia at Oakland.

Stat of the Week

The Kansas City Chiefs are 1-13 SU against teams hailing from the AFC East, including 0-9 ATS the last nine games.

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Football Jesus Free pick : Steelers+ points 18-8-1 on football freebies

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NFL Opening Line Report Books limp into Week 9

Sportsbooks in Nevada limp into Week 9 of the NFL schedule after taking a beating from the betting public this Sunday.

NFL Week 8 favorites are 8-4 ATS, heading into the Monday nighter, serving books their worst week of the 2013 football season, according to media sources in Las Vegas. On top of that, the Over hit in eight of those 12 games, another popular parlay pick of the public.

“The public is 7-1 and going for the throat (Monday) with residual parlays overflowing to Seattle,” Jay Kornegay, sportsbook director at the LVH Superbook, told Matt Youmans of the Las Vegas ***************.

That rough weekend may or may not prompt sportsbooks to inflate the spreads for Week 9’s action. Favorites are 63-53-3 (54.31%) on the year, with home chalk boasting a profitable 42-31-3 record (57.53%) heading into Monday.

“I preach it every week, ‘Jack up those favorites’,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club. “I tell them every week, stick a number out there and if you start taking money on it, move it. Get to that number where you’re getting money on the underdog.”

“The thing is, a lot of places are too worried about getting middled. That rarely happens,” Korner says. “They’re afraid to put the favorites too high. They’re afraid of money on the underdog. I say get as much money on the underdog as you can before the weekend.”

Korner is pointing at next Monday’s game between the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers, which his oddsmakers sent out with Green Bay as an 11-point favorite.

Korner believes the injury to Chicago QB Jay Cutler will push this line higher and says books only have to look to this Monday’s game between Seattle and St. Louis as an example. That spread has climbed as high as Rams +14 with QB Sam Bradford out for the season.

“It’s basically a good team versus a bad team,” Korner says of the Green Bay-Chicago matchup. “On Monday, books should jack up the favorite and the total. Be higher than the guy next to you.”

San Diego Chargers at Washington Redskins (Pick, 51)

Robert Griffin III is the big “What if?” in this matchup. The Redskins QB left Sunday’s game against Denver with a knee injury in the fourth quarter but told the media his knee was fine and that the team held him out as a precaution.

Korner says his stable of oddsmakers brought spreads from Washington -2 to a pick’em to the table, settling on Redskins -2 with the expectation that RG3 would be in action versus San Diego.

“They’re playing much better and should be the favorite if he’s in,” Korner says of Griffin and the Redskins. “San Diego is a good team and we do respect them, but San Diego is in double trouble being in the AFC West, with Denver and Kansas City heading to the playoffs and everyone else - besides division leaders - fighting for one spot.”

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (+1, 45)

The Texans and Colts both come off a bye week, heading into this Sunday Night Football matchup. Korner says some of his oddsmakers had Houston as a favorite, however, they sent out Colts -1.

“I had to fight for this one,” he says. “I didn’t yield to the other guys.”

Korner is interested to see how Houston’s QB situation impacts the line. Matt Schaub is questionable to return from a leg injury in Week 9, leaving third-stringer Case Keenum as the starter. Keenum was impressive in his first NFL start versus Kansas City in Week 7, passing for 271 yards a score in a close loss to the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium.

“He looked good and confident,” Korner says of Keenum. “As bad as Schaub was playing, there’s not much of a drop off here. Now, perception wise there is. We did this (spread) with Keenum playing. We’ll see if the line moves if Schaub comes back.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-7, 44)

A few years ago, this matchup would be a possible AFC Championship preview. But, with the Steelers stumbling and Tom Brady and the Patriots looking less like contenders every week, this AFC showdown has lost its luster.

Korner sent out this game at New England -7.5 but had some of his oddsmakers bring a spread as high as Patriots -9 to the table. Most books opened with the spread at a touchdown.

“This is now just an average game,” says Korner. “And where New England is playing better, it warrants more than a touchdown. It’s a boring game really. New England is the better team and I think (the spread) goes a little higher.”

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StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets

NFL BALTIMORE at CLEVELAND
Play On - Road favorites (BALTIMORE) off a road loss, in November games
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% 26.2 units )

NFL CHICAGO at GREEN BAY
Play On - Any team vs the money line (GREEN BAY) good team - outscoring opponents by 4 or more points/game, after a playing a game where 70 total points or more were scored
45-16 over the last 10 seasons. ( 73.8% 0.0 units )
2-1 this year. ( 66.7% 0.0 units )

NFL ATLANTA at CAROLINA
Play Against - Road underdogs of 2 to 6 points vs. the first half line (ATLANTA) after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7 games against opponent after having won 4 out of their last 5 games
59-26 since 1997. ( 69.4% 30.4 units )

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NFL's Biggest Betting Mismatches Week 9

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 9:

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-9.5, 43.5)

Falcons’ injured LBs vs. Panthers’ QB Cam Newton

Those 9.5 points may seem like a lot, even for the fumbling Falcons, but you can point the finger at one man as to why the Panthers are near double-digit chalk hosting their NFC South rivals Sunday. Carolina QB Cam Newton has been a thorn in Atlanta’s side since coming into the league. Last year, the dual-threat QB scrambled for 202 yards and a TD in two meetings with the Falcons and is coming off 50-yard rushing day, with a score, in last Thursday’s win over Tampa Bay.

The Falcons defense is missing its two most important defensive cogs when facing a running threat like Newton and the Panthers’ read-option. Linebackers Sean Weatherspoon and Kroy Biermann – used best as a QB spy – are both on the shelf with injuries. Atlanta hasn’t faced many passers with legs like Cam, but did give up 21 yards on the ground to rookie QB Geno Smith in Week 5’s loss to the Jets.

Tennessee Titans at St. Louis Rams (+1, 39.5)

Titans’ coaching staff vs. Rams’ head coach Jeff Fisher

You don’t coach a franchise for 16 years and not pick up a little info along the way. Rams head coach Jeff Fisher squares off against his former team Sunday, a rematch of Super Bowl XXXIV. However, this time Fisher is on the other sideline. Fisher downplayed Week 9’s game, stating that he’s only coached 16 players on the Titans’ current roster. But Fisher does have some heavy-hitting intel on the Tennessee coaching staff.

Current Titans head coach Mike Munchak served under Fisher during his tenure in Tennessee, as did Titans offensive coordinator Dowell Loggain and senior defensive assistant Gregg Williams, who would have been a part of Fisher’s staff in St. Louis if not for the “Bounty-Gate” scandal. With a spread this tight, expect some gutsy calls from both coaching staffs. And Fisher could have the inside edge when it comes to those decisions.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks (-15.5, 40)

Bucs’ jumpy offense vs. Seahawks’ 12th Man

CenturyLink Field in Seattle has the reputation as the loudest and toughest venue in the NFL. Look no further than the Seahawks’ stunning 34-16-1 ATS record in their last 51 home games as evidence. “The 12th Man” recently set a record for loudest fans in sports – later broken by Chiefs fans in Arrowhead – and make it hard on even the most seasoned QB to communicate at the line of scrimmage, let alone a rookie like Tampa Bay QB Mike Glennon.

The Bucs already are among the most careless teams at the line, getting whistled for 10 false start penalties and five delay of game calls – both among the league leaders in those infractions. Tampa Bay also has been dinged for 11 offensive holding penalties, handing opponents a total of 108 yards. With Glennon’s play calls drowned out by the Seattle faithful, expect plenty of laundry on the field Sunday.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-6, 44)

Steelers’ slow starts vs. Patriots’ first-half play

A big part of Pittsburgh’s poor start to the season has been its poor start to games. The Steelers are averaging only 2.7 points in the opening quarter – getting outscored 54-19 in the first 15 minutes – and mustering just 7.7 points in the first half this season. Last week against Oakland, Pittsburgh dug itself a 14-0 hole and couldn’t climb out, eventually losing 21-18.

The Patriots offense is starting to gain traction, having averaged 28 points in their last three games. New England is scoring 13.7 points per first half in that span. Even more important is the Pats’ defense in the opening frames. They’ve limited opponents to only 3.8 points per first quarter and 8.4 points per first half – second lowest in the AFC. The Steelers may find themselves down again at the break Sunday afternoon.

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NFL Betting Week 9 Preview Hot Bets & Moving Odds

Sports Interaction betting analyst Frank Doyle previews Week 9’s NFL action.

All odds current as of noon ET, Oct. 31

Trend setters

NFL betting trends come and go as bettors and oddsmakers play their weekly game of cat and mouse. It’s a fluid situation so you just don’t see prolonged trends very often. Bookies adjust to the games and the action they see and try to keep action relatively balanced.

That’s why when you see a trend hitting at almost a 60 percent clip over a full month, it’s worth looking into. Over the past 30 days, 59 percent of NFL games have played over their posted totals. We all know the NFL has been a passing league for a while, but that’s a significant trend especially when you consider the over is hitting at a 55 percent clip through the first eight weeks of the season.

Sure, Peyton Manning and the Broncos have a lot to do with it. They’ve played over in each of their eight games so far and bookies just can’t set totals high enough for them on a weekly basis. Lots of other teams are just hammering totals too though. Chicago and Minnesota have played over in six of seven games, St. Louis and Buffalo have the over at 6-2, while Miami and Atlanta have seen five of their seven games check in above the total.

Will this even out? Sure, with winter on its way, over time it will even out. But for now, it’s something to keep in mind as you go through Week 9’s odds.

Movers and shakers

The Miami Dolphins opened as 1.5-point home underdogs as they get set to host the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday Night football, but bettors are all over the Bengals. After putting up 103 points over the last three weeks (and seeing the over go 3-0), Cincinnati is now a 3-point favorite (-125) at Sports Interaction. Right now, about 87 percent of the action is on Cincy.

Another home team that isn’t seeing any love is the New York Jets. They started off as 4.5-point home underdogs for their Week 9 matchup with the Saints but are now at +6 with even more heavy action coming in on New Orleans. This line could move to a touchdown by kickoff.

New England’s matchup with the Steelers will be one to keep a close eye on. The Pats opened as 6.5-point favorites but moved to -7 shortly after. Now New England, which is coming off a 10-point win over Miami, is holding as a 6-point favorite.

Hot Bets

The 8-0 Kansas City Chiefs are seeing 86 percent of Sports Interaction’s action as they get set to visit the Buffalo Bills as 3-point favorites (-120).

About 92 percent of bettors are backing the Indianapolis Colts this week. Indy is a 2.5-point favorite (-120) at Houston.

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Where the Action is NFL Mid-Week Line Moves

The second half of the NFL schedule gets underway in Week 9. Books and bettors have a good idea what teams are made of at this point in the season, but that’s hasn’t stopped action from moving this week’s NFL odds.

We talk with Aron Black of bet365 and Michael Stewart of CarbonSports about the biggest adjustments to the Week 9 odds and where those lines could end up Sunday.

New Orleans Saints at New York Jets – Open: +4.5, Move: +6.5

A week after getting blown away by the Bengals' passing attack, the Jets welcome Drew Brees and the Saints' high-flying offense to MetLife Stadium. It could be more of the same, with Brees coming off a five-TD performance versus the Bills. According to Stewart, action has pounded the Saints all the way past the key number of -6.

“All this just on Sunday night,” says Stewart. “Come Monday afternoon, with us seeing even more money come in on the Saints we had no choice but to go to -6.5 and that's the number we've been dealing since. I can't see this game going any higher than that and we're starting to see some money come in on the Jets. I believe are sharper players are waiting for us to reach 7, but that's not going to happen. We've reached out limit on this game and we won't be going any higher.”

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks – Open: -18.5, Move: -15.5

The Seahawks face another mountain of chalk versus Tampa Bay, despite a poor showing against the Rams on Monday Night Football. However, the Bucs are winless and have plenty of rumors swirling around head coach Greg Schiano.

“Before Monday, there wouldn’t be any reason to go against Seattle,” says Black. “Normally, Seattle at a line like this is going to be well played. It’s a lot quieter than it would normally be, so it’s possible this line drops a bit further. But over two-touchdown favorites is still going to be where they end up.”

San Diego Chargers at Washington Redskins – Open: Pick, Move: +1.5

Washington was dealt a scare when Robert Griffin III left last Sunday with a knee injury. However, it looks like RG3 will be OK for Week 9, taking on an underrated Chargers team making their second cross-county hike this season.

“I believe the betting public is seeing exactly what we're seeing, that RG3 isn't the same guy as last year,” says Stewart. “Regarding the health of his knee, that's irrelevant to me. It's his accuracy or lack thereof that I'm concerned with. Regardless, after seeing the early money show on the Chargers, we moved this game quickly to Chargers -1 and we're currently dealing Chargers -1.5.”

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BURNS main event.. Houston Texans