11-3-13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

King Creole
Total of the week
Over Eagles

[Can'tPickAWinner]

cappersports

oak+1
sea-14.5
balt-1
ne-5.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL

Week 9

Falcons (2-5) @ Panthers (4-3)—Atlanta is in freefall, losing four of last five games, with only win over winless Bucs; they’ve run ball for less than 65 yards in each of last four games, and in last two, ran ball 32 times for 45 yards- with star WR Jones out for year, Ryan can’t win games throwing ball 61 times, like he did last week in Arizona. Carolina has yet to allow first half TD this season, outscoring foes 82-23 in first half; they’ve won last three games, all by 15+ points, outrushing those teams 362-186 with a +6 turnover margin, leading to field position advantages of 18-5-16 yards. Panthers won last two home games 38-0/30-15; they’ve only allowed two TD drives of less than 74 yards all year (both at Arizona in Week 5) as they’ve forced teams to drive whole field to score on them. Falcons have won five of last six series games; winning side scored 28+ points in last nine series games. Five of last six Atlanta games and last three Carolina games went over the total. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 16-8 vs spread so far this season.

Saints (6-1) @ Jets (4-4)—Ryan brothers square off here with Saints playing second game off their bye, while Jets have theirs after this game. Gang Green lost 49-9 last week in Cincy, allowing 10.4 yard/pass attempt, bad news vs Saint team that has averaged 7.6+ yards/pass attempt in three of last four games. Jets are -11 in turnovers in their four losses, -1 in wins, but they haven’t lost consecutive games yet this season (3-0 vs spread after loss)- they’re 3-1 at home, with three wins by total of 11 points and a 19-6 loss to Steelers. Saints are 2-1 on road, winning by 2-8 points, losing 30-27 in last minute at Foxboro; they’re 4-1 vs spread when favored this year. 16-14 as road favorite under Payton. NO has only four takeaways (even) in three road games, compared to 11 (+8) in Superdome. NFC South road teams are 2-7 vs spread out the division, 0-3 as road favorites; AFC East home teams are 7-2 outside the division, 4-1 as home dogs. Five of last six Jet games, three of last four Saint games went over the total.

Vikings (1-6) @ Cowboys (4-4)—Minnesota has to decide on a QB; all three are about the same, none are very good, but starting a different guy every week is self-defeating. Vikings won eight of last nine games with Dallas, but this is their first visit to Big D since ’07. Dallas is 4-0 vs spread at home this year, 3-0 as home favorites, winning by 5-24-15 points with the 51-48 loss to Denver- they’ve got 11 takeaways in last four games and are 4-0 vs spread when allowing less than 30 points. Cowboys allowed 30+ points in its last three losses; they were outgained 623-268 in Detroit last week, with Calvin Johnson catching 329 yards worth of passes, so how bad are Vikings to be double digit dog here? Minnesota is 0-3 since coming back from England, losing by 25-16-13 points, allowing 11 TDs on 29 drives, with only one takeaway (-4). NFC North teams are 3-6 vs spread in non-divisional road games, 1-3 as road dogs. Cowboys are 3-0 vs NFC East rivals, 1-4 vs everyone else, with only win 31-7 over the Rams. Six of seven Minnesota games went over the total.

Titans (3-4) @ Rams (3-4)—Jeff Fisher coached Oilers/Titans for 17 years, going 142-120, leading them to Super Bowl XXXIV, where they lost to …….the Rams. This is first time he faces his old team, six days after Rams’ game-winning drive died on 2-yard line on last play of a 14-9 home loss to first-place Seattle. Backup QB Clemens isn’t quite NFL-caliber (15-31/139 Monday), but defense played butts off vs Seattle, outgaining Seahawks 339-135 and St Louis ran ball for 200 yards, in OL’s best game in years. Rams are 4-3 as home underdog under Fisher; they’re 0-4 this year when scoring less than 27 points, but they’re 2-2 at home, beating Cards/Jags. Titans lost last three post-bye games by 12-34-5 points; they’re 1-2 on road but were underdog in all three- they turned ball over seven times in last three games (-3) after having zero turnovers in first four games (+9). Tennessee has zero giveaways in its three wins, seven in its losses- they’re 1-3 as road favorites under Munchak. Six of eight St Louis games, three of last four Titan games went over the total.

Chiefs (8-0) @ Bills (3-5)—Buffalo won five of last six series games, winning 41-7/35-17 last two years; Chiefs lost their last six visits here, with last win here in ’86, but they’re on a serious roll now, winning road games by 26-10-9 points. KC’s four wins when they have 3+ takeaways (+8) are all by 9+ points; only one of the four other wins was by more than six points (28-2 at Jaguars in Week 1). Buffalo split its four home games, which were decided by total of nine points; last week was first time this year they scored less than 20 points. Bills are 5-3 vs spread this year, an underdog in every game. Only two games they’ve been smoked this year were the two games they didn’t have a takeaway, vs Browns/Saints- they’ve forced 15 turnovers in their other six games. AFC West teams are 15-7 vs spread in non-divisional games, 4-2 as road favorites. AFC East home teams are 7-2 vs spread outside their division, 4-1 when home underdogs. Six of eight KC games stayed under the total; six of last seven Buffalo games went over.

Chargers (4-3) @ Redskins (2-5)—Cross country trip off bye week for San Diego club that didn’t allow offensive TD in its last two games (Colts/Jags); they didn’t turn ball over in either game, after -5 debacle in Sunday night loss at Oakland in Week 5. In its other six games combined, San Diego turned ball over five times, same as that night in Oakland. Not sure what to make of Washington after they gave up 38 unanswered points in second half at Mile High last week, after leading 21-7 early in third quarter; RGIII’s knee isn’t what it was LY, which hurts his mobility. Skins allowed 101 points in their first three home games (1-2), losing to Eagles/Lions, beating Bears (and backup QB McCown) 45-41 two weeks ago. Bolts won six of last nine post-bye games, but that was under different coaches- they won last three games vs Washington, after losing first six- they’ve lost four of five visits here, winning 23-17 in OT in ’05, their last visit here. Under is 3-1-1 in San Diego’s last five games. Bolts averaged 6.5+ yards/pass attempt in each of its last six games.

Eagles (2-6) @ Raiders (3-4)—Why is Philly favored on the road? Iggles are 3-1 away from home, with only loss 52-20 at Denver; they’ve won at Wash/NJ/ Tampa, teams with combined 6-17 record. Foles starts at QB after getting KO'd by Dallas two weeks ago. For first time since ’99, Eagles didn’t score an offensive TD in consecutive games, outscored 32-10 by two divisional rival in games where their starting QB got KO’d both games. Vick heard hamstring pop and Foles had concussion two weeks ago; wouldn’t feel good about laying points on road with rookie Barkley under center. Oakland grabbed quick 14-0 lead over Steelers last week and held on for 21-18 win, their third win in four home games this year (lost 24-14 to Redskins when Flynn (since released) started). Raiders allowed 21+ points in all four losses, 18 or less in their three wins. Philly lost three of last four series games, losing last three visits here by 24-31-4 points. NFC East non-divisional road teams are 2-9 SU this season (2-2 as road favorite); AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 6-1 vs spread. Under is 5-1-1 in Oakland’s games this season.

Buccaneers (0-7) @ Seahawks (7-1)—These teams came into NFL together in ’76, have met only 11 times (7-4 Seattle) with Bucs winning last three meetings by 10-17-20 points, but those Bucs ain’t these Bucs. Winless Tampa is 1-6 vs spread, 0-2 as road underdogs, losing 18-17 (-3) at Jets, 23-3 (+7) in Foxboro, 31-23 (+7) in Atlanta, while Seattle is 2-1 as home favorites, winning by 26-28-7 points- only home game Seattle didn’t cover was when Titans scored 90-yard TD on fumble off botched Seattle FG right before halftime. Short week for Hawks after escaping St Louis with 14-9 win after being outgained 339-135 by Rams and backup QB Clemens. Seattle has had 2+ takeaways in every game, is +9 for season, but even in last three games. Bucs allowed only 17.5 ppg in four pre-bye games, have given up 31 in all three post-bye games, losing by 11-8-18 points. NFC South non-divisional underdogs are 3-6 vs spread, 2-4 on road; NFC West favorites are 8-3, 5-2 at home. Last three Tampa games and four of last five Seattle games went over the total.

Ravens (3-4) @ Browns (3-5)—Baltimore won five in row and 10 of last 11 post-bye games (10-1 vs spread); they’ve won last 11 games in this rivalry by average score of 22-7, winning last five visits here, all by 10+ points. Ravens won 14-6 (-6.5) in first meeting this year in Week 2, after being down 6-0 at half- they were 8-16 on 3rd down in game where neither team gained 300 yards. Cleveland played better last week (L17-23 @ KC) in Campbell’s first ’13 start, but they’re 0-5 in games not started by Hoyer and are 1-2 at home, with only win over Bengals- in their last three games Brown opponents are 25-46 (54.3%) on 3rd down, as Cleveland defense is having trouble getting off field- they’ve been outscored 78-30 since halftime of Detroit game in Week 6. Last four Raven games were all decided by 3 or less points; Baltimore is 1-3 on road, with only win 26-23 at Miami. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 7-5 vs spread. Five of last six Raven games stayed under total; three of last four Cleveland games went over.

Steelers (2-5) @ Patriots (6-2)—In its last four games, NE defense allowed average of 156.5 rushing yards/game, so they’re having trouble getting off field; foes are 19-38 on 3rd down against them last two weeks. Their 6-2 record is misleading; besides a 23-3 win over winless Tampa Bay, Patriots have three wins by 3 or less points, a 30-23 win at Altanta and last week’s 27-17 win, when they trailed Miami 17-3 at the half. NE is somehow 3-1 as home favorite this year though and 31-18-2 as a non-divisional home favorite since ’03 (2-0 this year). Steelers are 2-5 despite being favored in five of seven games; they’re 1-3 away from home, losing by 10-7-3 points, with win at the Jets- they allowed QB Pryor to run 93 yards on first play of game last week, longest run ever by a QB. Are they ready to play? Pitt lost by 10-17 in its two games as a dog. Pats won four of last six series games; this is Steelers’ first visit here in five years. AFC East non-divisional home teams are 7-2 vs spread, 3-1 when favored; AFC North dogs are 7-4-1 against spread, 4-2-1 on the road.

Colts (5-2) @ Texans (2-5)—Houston lost its last five games, with three losses by 21+ points; they’re going with UH alum Keenum at QB over healthy Schaub; Keenum gets 2nd NFL start after going 15-25/221 in 17-16 loss at Arrowhead two weeks ago, first time in six games Texans didn’t throw a pick-6- he had bye week to prepare full for Colts, team that is 18-4 vs Houston, but lost last three visits here by 10-27-12 points. Texans are -11 in turnovers, scoring 16 or less points in four of last five games. Colts won four of last five games, with only loss in primetime at San Diego; Indy won its other two road games easily, at SF/Jax. Houston’s only win in three home games was 30-24 in OT over Titans in Week 2; they’ve been outscored 70-16 in second half of last five games. With Cushing/ Daniels/Foster hurt, big part of Houston’s nucleus is out. Both teams are off their bye; Indy won seven of last eight post-bye games, Texans won last two. This will be first game WR Wayne has missed for Colts since 2001, but Indy scored 27+ points in four of last five games.

Bears (4-3) @ Packers (5-2)—Simply put, Green Bay is 4-0 vs spread when they have zero or one turnover, 0-3 if they have 2+. Bears have four takeaways in last three games, after having 14 in first four. Much like Texans, Chicago had bye week to get backup QB McCown ready for 2nd ’13 start, vs Packer squad that won eight of last nine series games, winning last six in row, all by 7+ points. Bears lost last five visits to Lambeau, with three of five by 13+. Bears won six of last seven post-bye games under Smith; they lost pre-bye game 45-41 at Washington, as McCown did well in relief of injured Cutler (leg) but if they gave up 45 and last-minute score to banged-up RGIII, what will well-balanced Pack attack score? Green Bay won its last four games; they’re 3-0 as home faves this year, winning by 38-20/22-9/31-13 scores at Lambeau. Pack converted 20 of last 31 third down plays, as Nelson emerges as Rodgers’ go-to guy in clutch. Six of seven Chicago games went over total; three of last four Packer games stayed under. NFL-wide, double digit favorites are 8-5 vs spread this year, 2-1 in divisional games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Scott ferrall paid picks
Kansas City
BUFFALO +3 ½ (1)

Pittsburgh
NEW ENGLAND -6 ½ (2)

San Diego
WASHINGTON +1 (3)

Minneapolis
DALLAS -10 (4)

ATLANTA +7 ½ (5)
Carolina

NEW ORLEANS -5 ½ (6)
Jets

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BIG BUCKS SPORTS

Miami under 200
Orlando under 194'
Lakers over 205

[Can'tPickAWinner]

For tonight's football game:

Game 421-422: Indianapolis at Houston (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 139.088; Houston 126.179
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 13; 41
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 2 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-2 1/2); Under

INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 2) at HOUSTON (2 - 5) - 11/3/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 36-18 ATS (+16.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 2-2 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

8:30 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. HOUSTON
Indianapolis is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Houston
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Houston is 4-18 SU in its last 22 games when playing Indianapolis

BEN BURNS
main event.. Houston Texans

Colin Cowherd
Texans

Mike O'Connor (Dr Bob Site)
Texans

Winning Angle Sports
Colts

EZWINNERS
5* Texans +2

Totals 4 You
2013 Sunday Night AFC Super Total of the Year!!!!!
Indianapolis/Houston under 44 1/2

Platinum Plays
Best Bets Houston Texans +2

Best Bets
500K NBC Shocker/Month
the Indianapolis/Houston Game UNDER
the Total Of 44 Points

Cappers Access
Texans +2

Intpicks
1* Texans

From This Week's NFL PLATINUM SHEET
STATFOX FORECASTER
INDIANAPOLIS (421) AT HOUSTON (422)
Latest Line: HOUSTON +2.0; Total: 43.5
FORECASTER: Indianapolis 23, Houston 22

THE GOLD SHEET
♦♦♦♦♦ KEY RELEASES ♦♦♦♦♦
INDIANAPOLIS by 12 over Houston

PLAYBOOK / VICTOR KING
'TOTALS' TIPSHEET
2* Colts @ Texans - ‘UNDER’

RED SHEET
PRO FOOTBALL
Indianapolis 31 - HOUSTON 17
RATING 88: INDIANAPOLIS

Sixth Sense
Houston +1.5

Hammering Hank
colts

Gamblers Data
Free Play Sunday
Colts -2

Hondo best bet
Indy

Football Crusher
Indianapolis Colts -125 over Houston Texans

sportsexperts 17
Take: (422) HOUSTON TEXANS
Reason: "TITANIUM RELEASE" HOUSTON TEXANS +1.5 OUR PICK IN THIS GAME

Bookieshunter
2* HOU +2.5

Bob Balfe
Texans +1.5

David Banks
Texans

Marc Lawrence
3 Units - Texans

Championship Football
Texans +1.5

Bankroll sports
10* Colts @ Texans Under 44 (NFL) / 8:30pm

northcoast
top opinions
under indy / houston

TMC Sports Advisors
Houston +2

ROOT
Pinnacle HOUSTON

Dave Cokin:
texans +2.5

9xSports
(nfl) 8:30pm houston texans+2

ExNFLPlayersPicks
8:30 et Houston +1

Chris Jordan
1000 --> Colts -2

J Clifton
Indy - 1 1/2

Scott Spreitzer Division Tapout GOY
Houston