11-28-13

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StatFox Super Situations - FoxSheets.

NHL VANCOUVER at OTTAWA
Play On - Road Teams when the money line is -100 to -150 (VANCOUVER) after 2 or more consecutive losses, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%) in the first half of the season
31-9 since 1997. ( 77.5% 20.8 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% -1.1 units )

NHL VANCOUVER at OTTAWA
Play On - Road Teams when the money line is -100 to -150 (VANCOUVER) after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games, a marginal losing team (40% to 49%) playing a bad team (25-40%)
74-35 since 1997. ( 67.9% 33.5 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% -0.1 units )

NHL VANCOUVER at OTTAWA
Play On - Road teams against the money line (VANCOUVER) good offensive team - averaging 29.5 or more shots on goal per game, hot team - 3 straight games with 8+ more shots on goal than opponents
50-25 over the last 5 seasons. ( 66.7% 26.1 units )
3-0 this year. ( 100.0% 3.0 units )

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Sean Michaels

100 DIME
Teaser Winner

7PT Teaser
Dallas / Detroit

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Harry Bondi

4* Texas
3* Oakland

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Executive

250 texas tech
250 pitt/balt over

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SPORTS REPORTER
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
*TEXAS over TEXAS TECH by 8
Turkey on the field! Oh, not fair. Coach Mack Brown’s Texas Longhorns are 6-1 SU
in Big 12 play, losing only to the Oklahoma State team that just clocked #4-ranked
Baylor. An underwhelming 3-3-1 ATS, but they’ve beaten Texas Tech each of the
last three seasons by 10, 32 and 9 points. We’ve said it before, will say it again:
Texas Tech was due to crash as Big 12 play got tougher and deeper. They hit 7
wins – all against nobody special -- then the soft defense and lack of a running
game showed that they weren’t your tough, November football kind of team. If
Texas can’t be pushed around at the line of scrimmage, then the Longhorns usually
look okay going in, and coming out.
TEXAS, 34-26.

MISSISSIPPI over *MISSISSIPPI STATE by 8
Mississippi State is 15-23 SU in SEC play under head coach -- turkey on the field!
-- Dan Mullen. Quarterback Tyler Russell has been playing hurt and was knocked
silly near the end of regulation last Saturday, when this offense somehow turned
‘easy field goal’ into 2nd and 32. Russell’s back-up Dak Prescott has also been
hurting. Mississippi State is 5-6 and needs this for bowl-eligibility, but the annual
rivalry game is no gimme. It was reported that Ole Miss #1 QB Bo Wallace was
ill Friday night and played sick in Saturday’s home-finale loss vs. Missouri. The
second part was definitely true. MISSISSIPPI, 31-23.

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THE GREEN SHEET
PRO FOOTBALL
DETROIT (NL) Green Bay 11:30 AM
The Packers missed a golden opportunity to climb back into the thick of the
NFC North even without Aaron Rodgers with Detroit and Chicago losing last
week but the Green Bay wound up with a tie, just picking up a relatively meaningless half game. Green Bay won the first meeting in this series but
the Lions played without Calvin Johnson. The Packers do own the top point
differential in the division with the fewest points allowed despite the recent
struggles of the defense. Rodgers is unlikely to be back and this is a critical
game for the Lions with a chance to move to 4-1 in division play with only the
Vikings left, setting up an edge in potential tiebreakers. The Packers are
slightly stronger statistically on a yards per play basis on both sides of the
ball and Detroit can’t be counted on to hold a lead.
LIONS BY 3

DALLAS (-9½) Oakland (45½) 3:30 PM
The Cowboys moved back on top of the NFC East, sitting with a glowing 4-0
division record. Dallas has only lost once at home this season but the
Cowboys have been a terrible home favorite performer. Only five teams have
scored fewer points than the Raiders this season but Dallas is just 2-11 ATS
since 2010 when laying a touchdown or more. Dallas has won and covered
in six of the last eight Thanksgiving games but Oakland has had the far
better defense this season as Dallas is the second worst team in the NFL in
yards per play allowed.
COWBOYS BY 6

BALTIMORE (-3) Pittsburgh (40½) 7:30 PM
The Steelers have had a lot of success in this series and they are getting
some attention with three straight wins to climb back into the playoff picture.
The road results have been ugly for the Steelers however and this is a
second straight division road game. Baltimore had first down and yardage
edges in the first meeting despite Pittsburgh escaping with a 19-16 win and
the Ravens still hold a tough home field with the lone loss coming by two
points against the full strength Packers.
RAVENS BY 6

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THE GREEN SHEET
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
TEXAS (-4) Texas Tech 6:30 PM With Baylor losing last week there are still scenarios for Texas to win the Big
XII though they will need Oklahoma to beat Oklahoma State next week and
Texas will have to beat Baylor next week as well. It has been a hard fall for
Texas Tech with four straight losses after a 7-0 start. Statistically these
teams are pretty close on both sides of the ball and while Texas has won four
in a row S/U in this series there have been many close games. The Red
Raiders have been exploited on the ground in Big XII play, out-rushed by at
least 150 yards in all four losses and a Texas attack posting 192 yards per
game on the ground could have a big day. The Longhorns seem to have the
higher ceiling even through consistency has been a problem. Given the extra
time and the big showcase Thanksgiving stage the home team should be
able to pull away with a small spread historically for the series.
UT BY 7

Mississippi (NL) MISSISSIPPI STATE 6:30 PM With the win over Arkansas last week this is a huge game for the Bulldogs
with a chance to get to a bowl game by reaching 6-6 this week. Ole Miss
came up short in a big game last week at home against Missouri and while
this is a big rivalry there will be less at stake for the Rebels. Mississippi State
had won three in a row before losing 41-24 last season in Oxford with the
Rebels posting 527 yards. Ole Miss has been stronger on both sides of the
ball statistically but both teams have allowed similar point totals and the
home team has won S/U in eight of the last nine meetings. Mississippi State
is banged up but value may be with the home team with more to play for as
the Rebels saw greater goals extinguished last week. MSU BY 3

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PLAYBOOK
COLLEGE FOOTBALL
TEXAS over Texas Tech by 8
After a surprising 7-0 start, 1st-year Texas Tech HC Kliff Kingsbury became
the toast of the town in Lubbock. But following a sobering 0-4 SUATS
run, requests for photo ops with Coach K have dropped signifi cantly. We’d love to tell you how teams on a 4-game losing streak fare if they
opened the season with 7 straight wins but the fact is NO TEAM has been
in this spot in the history of our database dating back to 1980! However,
we do know that road teams with rest riding an 0-4 SUATS exact losing
streak are an abysmal 2-14 ATS – more than enough to put us off the
Red Raiders here. Head Longhorn Mack Brown has been in and out of the
doghouse with fans all season but he should get a reprieve since Oklahoma
State – the team that handed Ol’ Mackie his worst home loss ever two
weeks ago – proved its mettle by blowing out previously unbeaten Baylor
in Stillwater on Saturday, 49-17. Now Brown can get his Horns ready for
Senior Day knowing he’s won and covered the last three showdowns with
TTRR. Bevo’s cause is also aided by the team’s timely bye last week (Texas
4-1 ATS with rest) and the fact that the Longhorns have won the stats in
their last fi ve games by an average of 102 YPG. And with a little help from
Oklahoma next week, Texas could still walk away with this year’s Big 12
Championship. Step One begins here and the Horns respond with a Turkey
Day win and cover.

Ole Miss over MISSISSIPPI ST by 10
Dan Mullen’s 3-year string of bowl appearances with MSU looks to be in
serious jeopardy here as the 5-6 Bulldogs face a must-win situation against
hated rival Ole Miss in the second half of our Turkey Day two-step. That’s
a tall order for a team that’s been manhandled by all fi ve quality SEC foes
this year, especially when a possible postseason berth hangs in the balance.
Mullen’s team has proved to be a moneyburner in Weekday games, going
1-10 ATS, and the Bulldogs don’t fare much better as home pups, going
1-6 ATS in their last seven tries when getting 7 or fewer points. Despite
Mississippi’s embarrassing effort against Missouri last Saturday night, the
Rebels have no problem getting the money in Weekday games, going 6-1
ATS in the last seven. Head coach Hugh Freeze needs a win here to avoid a
second straight losing season in SEC play and we think he’ll get it. Freeze
is an impressive 14-1 SU and 11-3 ATS versus a foe off a loss, including
11-1 SUATS if the Rebs scored fewer than 50 points in their last game.

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Armchair Sports Advisors
Purdue +13

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FOX SHEETS STATS!

NCAAB

Play against Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (WASHINGTON ST) - good foul drawing team - attempting >=25 free throws/game, poor shooting team - shooting <=42% on the season.
(88-36 over the last 5 seasons.) (71%, +48.4 units. Rating = 4*)

Play on Neutral court teams (LSU) - an explosive offensive team (>=76 PPG) against a good offensive team (74-76 PPG), after scoring 80 points or more 2 straight games.
(34-8 over the last 5 seasons.) (81%, +25.2 units. Rating = 4*)

IUPUI is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) vs. poor rebounding teams - outrebounded by opponents by 4+ per game over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was IUPUI 76.3, OPPONENT 80.6 - (Rating = 4*)

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Prediction Machine

Against the Spread Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times - Print Table):
Rot Time (ET) Pick Opp Line Margin Pick% $ Calc Box Analyze Live
305 4:30 PM OAK @ DAL 9.5 -7.0 57.0
304 12:30 PM @DET GB -5.5 8.0 56.4
307 8:30 PM PIT @ BAL 3 -1.9 52.8




Over/Under Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times - Print Table):
Home Rot Time (ET) Matchup Line Total Points Pick Pick% $ Calc Box Analyze Live
304 12:30 PM GB @ DET 50 53.8 Over 55.5
308 8:30 PM PIT @ BAL 40.5 41.9 Over 52.5
306 4:30 PM OAK @ DAL 46.5 47.3 Over 51.3

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Godfather Locks

5K* NFL WINNER #1 Detroit Lions -6.5


5K* NFL WINNER #2
Oakland Raiders +8.5


5K* NFL WINNER #3
Baltimore Ravens -2.5

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Prediction Machine
Here is today's college Against the Spread Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times - Print Table):

310	7:30 PM	@ TEX	TXTCH	-4.5	10.3	56.1
312	7:30 PM	@ MISSST	MISS	3	-1.1	52.9

Over/Under Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times - Print Table):

312	7:30 PM	MISS @ MISSST	52	55.4	Over	54.9
310	7:30 PM	TXTCH @ TEX	66.5	64.0	Under

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Prediction Machine
Against the Spread Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times - Print Table):

305	4:30 PM	OAK	@ DAL	9.5	-7.0	57.0
304	12:30 PM	@DET	GB	-5.5	8.0	56.4
307	8:30 PM	PIT	@ BAL	3	-1.9	52.8

Over/Under Picks (Based on Games Played 50,000 times - Print Table):

304	12:30 PM	GB @ DET	50	53.8	Over	55.5
308	8:30 PM	PIT @ BAL	40.5	41.9	Over	52.5
306	4:30 PM	OAK @ DAL	46.5	47.3	Over	51.3

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Anthony Redd
100 Dime
College Winner # 5 of 6
Texas