1-5-14

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WINNING POINTS

COLLEGE BASKETBALL

***BEST BET
Minnesota* over Purdue by 16
Ten players are playing more than 10 minutes per game for Purdue, but that’s not necessarily a good thing. They are young, so as conference season hits, it’s just a matter of which young guy’s minutes are cut in favor of another young guy. Or, continuing auditions. The Minnesota team that Little Pitino inherited from Tubby Smith – with upperclassmen guards and a penchant for thievery with 9 steals per game -- seems to have been built to handle situations like this.
MINNESOTA, 74-59.

Michigan* over Northwestern by 16
Minor-minute stiffs Jordan Morgan and John Horford will have to step up and crash
the boards for Michigan now that Mitch McGarry is out for the season. Their roster
is beginning to look like a CAA team in terms of height and weight. Good thing for
them that Northwestern ain’t much.
MICHIGAN, 69-53.

Kansas* over San Diego State by 9
A lingering non-conference affair as conference season begins for nearly everyone else. The Big 12 chiefs, KU, host the Mountain West invader after they’ve already taken apart the Aztecs’ Mountain West cousins New Mexico on a neutral floor a few weeks ago. SDS has a little more backbone than the Lobos.
KANSAS, 75-66.

Illinois State* over Southern Illinois by 5
Wouldn’t lay more than two treys with Illinois State. When they were close to being
good, they were never good favorites, and now they’re not close to being good.
ILLINOIS STATE, 63-58.

Wichita State* over Northern Iowa by 18
Their horrible offensive performance at defensive-minded Virginia is eerie foreshadowing
for Northern Iowa here.
WICHITA STATE, 70-52.

UCLA* over USC by 17
Bruins are likely to be laying double-digits. But there are reasons why. One of them is
52% shooting from the field. Another is a +7 Assist to Turnover Ratio.
UCLA, 84-67.

Missouri State over Loyola-Chicago* by 7
The Missouri Valley Conference’s newest member, Loyola, has a head coach who
played and coached in the conference, Porter Moser. But his resume/profile actually
lists, “lost 11 games by 10 points or less” last season, as if that’s a good thing.
MISSOURI STATE, 72-67.

**PREFERRED
Oregon over Colorado* by 11
These Thursdays to Sundays, instead of Thursdays to Saturdays, give Pac 12 roadies
more time to get ready between the first game of the road trip (and less time to get
back home and get ready for the new week.) Will it help Oregon overcome altitude
issues? Probably. They lost by 23 points here last year (but they already had 23 wins
at that point and could afford to not show up), and had lost to Colorado at home earlier, a loss that snapped a very long home winning streak. Ducks with double-revenge!
OREGON, 82-71.

Villanova* over Providence by 11

Wisconsin* over Iowa by 10
Iowa might seem like a hot road dog at the number, but if Roy Devyn Marble goes
out early with two fouls, and Wisconsin drags down the tempo that Iowa like to push,
then the scoreboard goes tick-tick-tick against them while the clock goes tock-tocktock against them.
WISCONSIN, 70-60.

Wake Forest* over North Carolina by 1
Demon Deacons have really ratcheted up the rebounding to where they almost lead
the nation in collected boards. You’ll remember that UAB, when they were leading
the nation in rebounds, pulled off a home court win against the Tar Heels. Whoa, ho,
look out, now.
WAKE FOREST, 71-70.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WINNING POINTS

NBA BASKETBALL

*Detroit over Memphis by 7
It's the Pistons who now have the dominant big men not Memphis minus Marc
Gasol. Detroit also is well rested having last played on Monday.
DETROIT 102-95.

***BEST BET
*Washington over Golden State by 11
The Wizards are tough enough at home with a backcourt of John Wall and Bradley
Beal to match Golden State's high scoring duo of Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson.
The Wizards can take advantage of the Warriors playing in their fifth road game in
eight days and third in four days.
WASHINGTON 113-102.

Indiana over *Cleveland by 7
The teams just met on Tuesday. Prior to that matchup, the Cavs had averaged only
85.1 points per game during the past six meetings versus Indiana.
INDIANA 92-85.

*Miami over Toronto by 8
Be careful with Miami here. Dwayne Wade doesn't always suit up in the second of
back-to-back games because of his troublesome knees and LeBron James was dealing
with a sore groin and ankle coming out of December.
MIAMI 101-93.

*Oklahoma City over Boston by 11
Except for a one-point upset of the Heat in early November, the Celtics have failed to
defeat an elite opponent and lack a defensive stopper to slow down Kevin Durant.
OKLAHOMA CITY 105-94.

*Dallas over New York by 9
Now that Jose Calderon is steadily contributing at point guard, the Mavericks are
much closer to elite level than New York's lowly level. Just when the Knicks get Tyson
Chandler back they lose Carmelo Anthony (check status) while their point guard situation remains highly troublesome.
DALLAS 107-98.

Denver over *Los Angeles Lakers by 3
Entering the final Sunday of December, the Lakers were 9-4-1 ATS at home.
However, the Lakers were no match for the Nuggets when the teams met in Denver
losing 111-99 on Nov. 13.
DENVER 106-103.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POINTWISE

NBA BASKETBALL

(1:05) DETROIT PISTONS 103 - Memphis Grizzlies 98 _____ _____

(6:05) Golden State Warriors 110 - WASHINGTON 106 _____ _____

(6:05) Indiana Pacers 105 - CLEVELAND CAVS 98 _____ _____

(6:05) MIAMI HEAT 108 - Toronto Raptors 101 _____ _____

(7:05) OKLAHOMA CITY 110 - Boston Celtics 103 _____ _____

(7:35) DALLAS MAVS 108 - New York Knicks 97 (NBA) _____ _____

(9:35) Denver Nuggets 102 - LOS ANGELES LAKERS 95 _____ _____

BEST BETS
BOSTON
DENVER (4)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

POINTWISE

Collegiate
Basketball Prophecy

COLLEGE KEY RELEASES
ILLINOIS STATE over So Illinois (Sun) RATING: 5

(12:00) MINNESOTA 79 - Purdue 74 (BIG10) _____ _____

(12:00) MICHIGAN 75 - Northwestern 53 (BIG10) _____ _____

(1:30) KANSAS 88 - San Diego State 70 (CBS) _____ _____

(2:00) ILLINOIS STATE 72 - Southern Illinois 57 _____ _____

(2:00) WICHITA STATE 89 - Northern Iowa 61 _____ _____

(3:00) UCLA 73 - Southern California 68 (FOX1) _____ _____

(4:00) Missouri State 64 - LOYOLA-CHICAGO 62 _____ _____

(5:00) COLORADO 79 - Oregon 78 (FOX1) _____ _____

(6:00) ARIZONA ST 67 - Washington State 61 (ESPNU) _____ _____

(7:00) VILLANOVA 70 - Providence 59 (FOX1) _____ _____

(7:30) WISCONSIN 68 - Iowa 67 (BIG10) _____ _____

(8:00) North Carolina 83 - WAKE FOREST 76 (ESPNU) _____ _____

BEST BETS
KANSAS
ILLINOIS STATE (5)
WICHITA STATE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
IOWA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BOB BALFE Free Play

Ball State -7 over Arkansas State

I don’t understand how this can be the second to last bowl game of the year. Should this game not be played with the other crappy bowl games before Christmas? Ball State has a great passing game with a quarterback who has NFL ability. I just think this Cardinal team will put up a ton of points and if Arkansas State gets down they don’t have ability to pass to get back in this game. Ball State is great at winning the turnover battle and are searching for their very first bowl win as a school. Arkansas State has an interim coach taking over for this game. The time is now for Ball State to bring home a bowl trophy. Take the Cardinals

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

CBB SAN DIEGO ST at KANSAS
Play On - Home favorites of 3.5 to 9.5 points (KANSAS) team from a major division 1-A conference against a team from a second tier conference, off a home win by 10 points or more
137-77 since 1997. ( 64.0% 52.3 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% -1.2 units )

CBB IOWA at WISCONSIN
Play On - Home favorites of -165 to -500 vs. the money line (WISCONSIN) top caliber team - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game, after leading their last 2 games by 10+ points at the half
209-41 since 1997. ( 83.6% 83.0 units )
3-2 this year. ( 60.0% -6.6 units )

CBB TENN-MARTIN at MURRAY ST
Play On - Road underdogs of 6 to 11 points vs. the first half line (TENN-MARTIN) excellent ball handling team - committing <=12 turnovers/game, after 2 straight games forcing opponent to commit 11 or less turnovers
63-29 since 1997. ( 68.5% 31.1 units )
8-5 this year. ( 61.5% 2.5 units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations™ - FoxSheets

NHL VANCOUVER at LOS ANGELES
Play On - Home Favorites against the money line (LOS ANGELES) after failing to cover the spread in 5 or more consecutive games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season
48-7 since 1997. ( 87.3% 36.9 units )

NHL VANCOUVER at LOS ANGELES
Play On - Home teams against the money line (LOS ANGELES) after failing to cover the spread in 5 or more consecutive games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season
51-13 since 1997. ( 79.7% 34.0 units )

NHL VANCOUVER at LOS ANGELES
Play On - A favorite against the money line (LOS ANGELES) after failing to cover the spread in 5 or more consecutive games, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season
58-15 since 1997. ( 79.5% 37.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% 1.0 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

THE GOLD SHEET

GO DADDY.COM BOWL
ARKANSAS STATE (7-5) vs. BALL STATE (10-2)
Sunday, January 5 Night at Mobile, Alabama (Field Turf)

*Ball St. 31 - Arkansas St. 28—For the third straight year, Arkansas State
will enter the GoDaddy.com Bowl led by an interim head coach. This time it’s
defensive coordinator John Thompson replacing Bryan Harsin, who’s now at
Boise State. Thompson is familiar with this drill, as he was in charge when the
Red Wolves beat 11-win MAC representative Kent State in last season’s
GoDaddy. North Carolina o.c. Blake Anderson will get the full-time ASU job for
next season.

Arkansas State is led by sr. QB Adam Kennedy, a 5th-year sr. transfer from
Utah St. who ranked among the nation’s leaders in completing 69% of his
passes. Kennedy ran for 663 yds. and 4 scores in addition to his 2349 YP and
11 TDP, and he connected regularly with a pair of reliable targets in soph J.D.
McKissic (73 catches) and sr. Julian Jones (51). All-Sun Belt RB David Oku
lost his starting job to effective soph Michael Gordon. Gordon gained 717 YR
(6.8 ypc) and became a staple of the offense down the stretch, averaging 109
ypg rushing & scoring 8 TDs in the final 4 games, and was named 2nd-team allconference.

The Red Wolves take care of the ball, as only 4 teams committed
fewer turnovers than Arkansas State’s 13. The ASU defense was average,
allowing 26.7 ppg, but it was tough in the red zone, ranking 23rd defensively,
allowing only 20 TDs in 52 opponents’ red-zone trips.

Ball State HC Pete Lembo is a solid, under-the-radar coach who’s led the
Cardinals to a 22-9 spread mark since midway through the 2011 season. Vet
QB Keith Wenning threw for 3933 yards and 34 TDs with only 6 ints. in 2013,
and he’s got a ton of targets, led by WR Willie Snead (97 catches, 1429 yards,
14 TDs). Jahwan Edwards fought through some injuries to gain 964 rushing
yards, scoring 13 TDs, although he wasn’t as productive as in 2012, when he
had 1410 YR and averaged 6.1 ypc (almost a full yard more on average than
the 5.2 ypc in 2013). But the Ball State defense is sub-par, especially considering
the level of competition in the MAC. The Card “D” ranks 86th overall and 93rd
against the run, allowing 195 ypg rushing & 4.7 ypc on the ground.

The MAC has had a rough time in bowl games the last two years, covering
just 2 of its last 11 postseason games. Ball State contributed to that record
with a 38-17 loss to UCF in last year’s Beef O’Brady’s Bowl, and the Cardinals
are 0-6 SU all-time in bowl games. Arkansas State has a bit better defense,
can run and throw efficiently, and has been through this drill before. It’s ASU’s
third straight trip to this bowl, and the Red Wolves grabbed a win with
Thompson in charge last season. Can’t trust a MAC rep to win by double-digits
considering the conference’s recent bowl results.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

THE GOLD SHEET

NFL Wild Card Playoffs
SAN DIEGO (9-7) at CINCINNATI (11-5)
Sunday, January 5, 2014
CINCINNATI 29 - San Diego 16— Perhaps we should check with Al Roker
and the chance of a weather forecast similar to the last time these two met in
the playoffs, a memorable 1981 AFC title game at old Riverfront Stadium, also
referred to as the “Freezer Bowl” when the kickoff temperature was an icy -
9 and wind chill an even more frigid -38. All part of a 27-7 Cincy win that
propelled it into Super Bowl XVI against the 49ers.

There is more recent history between the Bengals and Bolts, who met five
weeks ago at Qualcomm Stadium in a game won by Cincy, 17-10. Off of
their bye, the Bengals ran the ball effectively (164 YR) and held Philip
Rivers and the San Diego “O” to its lowest output of the season. At the
time, the Chargers’ playoff chances appeared about as remote as ice
freezing over Mission Bay, but the Chargers proceeded to win their last
four and barely squeezed into the postseason when the Dolphins and
Ravens both cooperated by losing last Sunday.

This might anger San Diego "homers" like Padres play-by-play voice Ted
Leitner (which is our intent–sort of), but we wonder about the playoffworthiness
of a San Diego squad that, gifted with a “win and in” scenario,
was outplayed much of last Sunday by a K.C. squad using backup QB Chase
Daniel, surviving into OT only because Chiefs PK Ryan Succop missed a 41-
yard FG by inches at the death of regulation. Meanwhile, Cincy enters the
playoffs 8-0 SU and vs. the line this season at Paul Brown Stadium. Which is
an important distinction, as the Bengals suffered wildcard exits the past two
seasons on the road at Houston.

Cincy, which effectively dealt with many injuries TY, appears better
equipped to advance in its third postseason try behind QB Andy Dalton, who
tossed a career-best 33 TDP while WR A.J. Green (98 catches) blossomed
into one of the NFL’s most feared deep threats. Rookie RB Gio Bernard also
added a big-play element absent the past two years. And if there are clues
from the first meeting, the Bengals’ ability to run effectively as the game
progressed and wear down the Bolts (who allowed a hefty 4.7 ypc TY), not
to mention keeping Ryan Mathews and the S.D. infantry in relative check,
appear to be significant indicators for the rematch.

SAN FRANCISCO (12-4) at GREEN BAY (8-7-1)
Sunday, January 5, 2014
San Francisco 29 - GREEN BAY 22—The Packers are delighted to have
back QB Aaron Rodgers and WR Randall Cobb after substantial absences.
The dynamic pair combined for the winning TD last week against the sloppy
Chicago defense. Too bad for G.B. that this has been a nightmare matchup
for the Pack since former Bear QB Jim Harbaugh arrived in San Francisco.
The 49ers out-muscled G.B. 30-22 at Lambeau in 2012’s opener (Alex Smith
at the controls for S.F.). Then, with Colin Kaepernick at QB in the Divisional
Round in 2012, the Niners ran away from Rodgers & Co. 45-31 at
Candlestick, with Kaepernick rushing for an NFL-record 181 QB yards. In
this year’s season opener, with the Pack looking for revenge and determined
to shut down Kaepernick’s runs, the long-limbed QB burned the G.B.

secondary for 412 YP and 3 TDP in a 34-28 win—and that was before
former top target Michael Crabtree had returned from an offseason torn
Achilles. During those three meetings, the Harbaugh 49ers have won the
rushing battle in all three contests, by a cumulative count of 599-222.
Yes, the Pack still wants a piece of Kaepernick and the Niners after LY’s
startling playoff loss in San Francisco. And G.B. now has a ground force of
its own in rookie RB Eddie Lacy (1178 YR), who boasts considerable
seasoning. Aforementioned deep-threat WR Cobb returned just in time last
week from a fibula fracture. But can you count on Rodgers and Cobb to be
at their best vs. the well-balanced S.F. defense, which bends a little, but
rarely breaks? The Packers are still missing a slew of quality players (e.g.,
OLB Clay Matthews, TE Jermichael Finley, DT Johnny Jolly, RB/KR DuJaun
Harris), and their OL and secondary have not exactly been bastions of
consistency.

Meanwhile, the 49ers are getting healthier, regaining WR Crabtree and
powerful G Mike Iupati in recent games to go with the veteran likes of RB
Frank Gore, WR Anquan Boldin, and TE deluxe Vernon Davis. With rookie S
Eric Reid and emerging CB Tramaine Brock now fixtures on defense, S.F.
has won six straight games and 11 of its last 13. Kaepernick (only 4 ints. his
last 13 games)—born in Milwaukee—will have to be at his mistake-free best
to beat the renowned Rodgers. But the same for the latter, who will be
facing a much more conscientious and bruising defense than Aa-Rod saw
last week in Chicago.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R.A.W. FOOTBALL - SUNDAY

3* = SAN DIEGO CHARGERS
2* = BALL STATE

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Lee Sterling
25 SF
20 SD
20 under SF

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Intpicks
2* Ball St -7
1* Cincinnati -7
1* San Francisco -2.5
1* Oklahoma City -9
1* Wichita St -11.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NCAAB

Sunday, January 5

Purdue won three in row, seven of its last eight games with Minnesota; they won two of last three visits here, with loss by 3. Both teams lost their first league game; Boilers won by 3 at West Virginia in their only true road game. Gophers won five of last six, are 2-3 vs top 100 teams, but they were 5-19 from arc and forced only 10 turnovers vs Michigan.

Michigan won its last five games with Northwestern, winning last three played here by 9-2-22 points. Wolverines miss injured McGary (back); three of their last four games were decided by 3 or less points. Michigan is 3-4 vs teams ranked higher than #189, with wins by 2-3-3. Wildcats are 0-5 vs top 100 teams, with all five losses by 11+- they lost league opener by 27 to Wisconsin at home.

'Young Kansas team is playing sixth game in row vs top 100 team, with Jayhawks winning last three by 17-22-10 points. Kansas has conference opener Wednesday at Oklahoma- they've gotten better because they did not have game in Lawrence for 29 days, going 3-3 but improving. Aztecs won last eight D-I games, beating Creighton/Marquette on neutral court; they have true road wins at San Diego/Colorado State.

Illinois State won its last three games with Southern Illinois by 20-14-36 points; young Redbirds won last four home games, but lost at Missouri State in OT Thursday in Valley opener, after being up 16 in first half. Salukis lost six of last eight games, coach blasted the players, then two days later the coach's son-in-law died-- been a tough time for him. SIU lost conference opener at home by 15 to Wichita State.

Wichita State won four of last five games with Northern Iowa, but got beat in last meeting LY; Shockers won by 25-25 points last two times teams played here. Wichita is 14-0; its last three wins are by 11+ pts. UNI is 0-4 in true road games, losing by 11-6-11-14 points, but they've won four of last five overall, with home wins over VCU and Iona.

USC-UCLA will be spirited rivalry, on/off court; Bruins won five of last six meetings, but Trojans split last six visits here. USC won five of last six games, with wins over Dayton/Xavier away from home- they're 1-2 in true road games, losing at Utah State/Long Beach, winning at Dayton. UCLA is 3-2 vs top 100 teams, #4 in country with a 57.5eFG%- you'd expect an Alford team to shoot well- they're 39.9% from arc.

Missouri State won Valley opener in OT over Illinois State; they're 2-1 in true road games, beating ODU/Oral Roberts, losing at Louisville by 30. Loyola lost its last three games, by 6-14-12 points, losing opener in Valley 70-58 at Indiana State Wednesday- they were outscored 15-3 on foul line, were -5 in turnovers. Ramblers are 4-1 at home, with only loss to Northern Illinois.

Colorado is 4-1 vs Oregon in Pac-12 play, with three of four wins by 1 point- they whacked Ducks by 23 here LY. Buffs are 2-2 vs teams in top 30, losing to Baylor/Okla State, beating Harvard/Kansas. Ducks are 13-0 after rallying for OT win at Utah Thursday (with 13:45 left, were down 10); they've now won both their true road games in overtime, at Utah and Ole Miss- they shoot 41.7% from arc.

Washington State got crushed at Arizona Thursday with leading scorer Lacy out (appendicitis); Coogs lost four of last five games with Arizona State, losing by 25-2-4-12 points in last four visits here. ASU got waxed at home by Washington Thursday, trailing by 17 half- they were 2-16 on arc. Wazzu is 1-2 in true road games, losing by 16 at Gonzaga, winning by point at Idaho in addition to the Arizona debacle.

Providence won three of last four games with Villanova, sweeping 'nova LY, but Friars are last in country in bench minutes, lost last two games in OT, losing to UMass/Seton Hall by total of 3 points. Wildcats won league opener by 3 at Butler, after Syracuse loss- they force turnovers 22.5% of time. Only one of Friars' last five losses here was by more than 11 points.

Iowa won three of last four games with Wisconsin; Badgers' last couple series wins were in OT. Hawkeyes lost seven of last eight visits to this gym, with five of last six losses by 12+. Iowa is 3-2 vs top 100 teams, losing by 5 to Villanova on neutral floor, 3 at Iowa State. Badgers' last four wins are all by 25+ points- they already have seven top 100 wins.

North Carolina won its last four games with Wake Forest by 9-14-15-25 points; Tar Heels won four of last five visits here, are 1-1 in true away games, losing at UAB, winning at Michigan State. 10-3 Deacons played #320 schedule to get here; they're 0-3 vs top 50 teams, losing by 9-19-15 points. Wake defends arc well, but Carolina doesn't shoot many 3-balls.

UT-Martin upset Murray State LY; they're 2-17 in last 19 series games,. with last eight losses here all by 13+ points, but Racers are down this year, with PG Jackson (knee) out for year- they're 6-7, making 59.8% on foul line, not as good as previous years. Skyhawks lost four in row, are 3-12 vs D-I teams; opponents are shooting 58.4% inside arc- not good.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

From the PLATINUM SHEET
STATFOX FORECASTER

AFC WILD CARD:
SAN DIEGO (105) AT CINCINNATI (106)
Latest Line: Cincinnati -6.5; Total: 45.5

Two red-hot teams meet in cold weather Sunday when the Bengals host the Chargers. San Diego won five of its final six games (4-2 ATS) to earn the last playoff spot in the AFC, but its one loss during that stretch was a 17-10 home defeat to Cincinnati, which is also 5-1 (SU and ATS) in its past six contests. In that Week 13 matchup, the Bengals outrushed the Chargers 164 to 91. San Diego has pulled off two straight impressive road wins at K.C. and at Denver, but Cincinnati is 8-0 (SU and ATS) at home this year, outscoring opponents 34.4 to 16.7 PPG. The Bengals are also 5-1 ATS (4-2 SU) in this series since 2003.
FORECASTER: Cincinnati 26, San Diego 20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

From the PLATINUM SHEET
STATFOX FORECASTER

NFC WILD CARD:
SAN FRANCISCO (107) AT GREEN BAY (108)
Latest Line: Green Bay +2.5; Total: 45.5

The 49ers look to beat the Packers for the fourth time in 16 months when they visit Lambeau Field on Sunday. San Francisco has averaged 36.3 PPG and 483.3 total YPG in these three victories, and enter this matchup with six straight SU wins by an average margin of 10.8 PPG. But Green Bay is 3-1 SU in its past four games and finally has both QB Aaron Rodgers (collarbone) and WR Randall Cobb (leg) back healthy, as the duo hooked up for two scores in last week’s 33-28 division-clinching win in Chicago. These teams have met six times in the playoffs since 1996, with Green Bay holding a 4-2 SU edge (2-0 at home).
FORECASTER: San Francisco 27, Green Bay 21