1-5-14

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NCAAF

Go Daddy Bowl Mobile AL, Jan 5
Since 2004, teams that won a bowl game and go back to same bowl next year are 11-14 vs spread; Arkansas State is in this bowl game for third year in row, splitting first two visits- last year was school's first win in three bowls. ASU will have its 5th HC in five years next year- they've had an interim coach in all three bowls here. Ball State is 0-6 in bowls, losing this game to Tulsa five years ago-- they lost last three bowl games by average score of 45-20. Cardinals are 10-2, scoring 27 points in both losses- they're 6-3 vs spread as favorite this year, 3-2 in games with a single digit spread. ASU is 3-3 as an underdog, 4-3 in games with single digit spread; they covered four of last five games, after 0-6 start. Faves are 7-2-1 vs spread in this bowl the last decade; MAC teams won three of last four, but MAC teams are 0-4 in bowls this year and were favored in three of the four.

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Hondo

102-149 40% for the year
0-4 yesterday

Bengals & the under
49ers & the under

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Sports Cash System

extra pick:

Green Bay Packers +3 over the San Francisco 49ers (Spread Bet) (NFL Football) - Game Starts at 4:40 PM EST

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Rickie Robbins

GB +3

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty pushed with the Chiefs (+1) on Saturday and likes the 49ers on Sunday.

The deficit remains 60 sirignanos.

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Al DeMarco
15 Dime Wildcard Release
49ers

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BANKROLL SPORTS

10* San Francisco 49ers -2.5 (NFL)
5* San Diego Chargers +7 (NFL)
4* Ball State Cardinals -7 (CFB)
3* Chargers @ Bengals Over 46 (NFL)
2* Memphis Grizzlies +2.5 (NBA)

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Northcoast

No late phones today.
Top opinions
Cincy -7
Arkansas st +7
Under cincy


Reg opinions
Under ark st
Under sf/gb
GB +3

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Ross Benjamin

10* 49ers -2.5

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Nelly

San Diego Chargers

Green Bay Packers

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Mark Franco

Bengals -6.5

49ers -2.5

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ArlonSports

cbb

1* Wisconsin -6

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Irish Mike Moran

SDG+7(-105)
SF-2.5(3x)

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Bryan Leonard | NFL Side
pick
107 SFX -2.5 (-125) 5dimes vs 108 GBP

Analysis: 107 San Francisco at Green Bay
Here we have two teams on the complete opposites when being compared by strength of schedule. The 49ers had one of the strongest slates in the league while Green Bay faced one of the easiest. The Packers toughest game of the year was the opener against these 49ers. After that they played just two other teams that made the playoffs, Cincinnati and Philadelphia. Green Bay lost all three of those games by a combined margin of 24 points. Despite the easy slate of games the Packers could only out gain the opposition 6.0 to 5.9 yards per play. We are well aware of the Aaron Rodgers injury situation but those numbers are hard to ignore, yet I haven't seen the mainstream media talking much about them. That is why we find value on what we consider the far better team.
San Francisco was 12-4 in the regular season despite playing twice as many playoff opponents than the Packers. In fact, the only losses on the season came against playoff foes. Unlike the Packers, the 49ers out gained the opposition 5.4 to 5.0 yards per play. This despite running the ball 53% of the time, which makes the ypp numbers even more impressive. 5.4 ypp despite facing the defenses of Seattle and Arizona twice. Because San Francisco traded away Alex Smith before the season we felt the team was very reluctant to put Colin Kaepernick in peril by having him run the ball. The brass knew they could survive the regular season with conservative play calling and a sound defense. But now that the playoffs have arrived we wouldn't be surprised to see the 49er offensive playbook opened up.
Many will give an edge in this game to the Packers because of the frigid conditions, saying Green Bay is used to playing in these conditions because of where they live. We don't buy into that. San Francisco has one of the toughest environments to play in with a swirling wind and cold conditions of their own. Besides the most important offensive player on the team played his college ball in Reno Nevada. The 49ers are the better team in just about every facet except quarterback and Rodgers is one game removed from the injury list. The freezing conditions can't be good for his recently healed collar bone. One hit and this game could be a complete domination.
PLAY SAN FRANCISCO

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MTI Sports

4.5-Star San Diego at Cincinnati OVER 46

These two met four weeks ago and the Bengals won 17-10 in San Diego. The Bengals were laying a point in that game, but here they are a TD favorite. The score in their first meeting is keeping this line very reasonable, but on the road, the Chargers will have to take it to the Bengals if they are going to win and this should get it over this number.
San Diego is off a 27-24 overtime win over the Chiefs in which they had 186 rushing yards and Philip Rivers had three TD passes to three different receivers - one of whom was Antonio Gates. This is an OVER indicator, as the Chargers are 11-0 OU the week following a win in which Antonio Gates caught a TD pass, as long as he had fewer than ten receptions. The SDQL text is:

0=20081201

Also, San Diego is 8-0 OU on the road after a game in which they had at least 150 yards rushing, going over the total by an average of 12.6 ppg. This was last active in week 12 vs the Chiefs and the Chargers won 41-38 with the OU line at 43.

team=Chargers and A and p:RY>=150 and date>=20090101

The Bengals are VERY confident. They have faith in Dalton and will not rein him in here. We have a couple of trends involving wide receivers working here. The Bengals are 7-0 OU (+12.1 ppg) the week after a win in which Mohamed Sanu did not have a 20-plus yard reception and 6-0 OU (+13.50 ppg) after a game in which AJ Green caught a touchdown pass.

The weather here is indeed an issue, which is why this play was not released last night. The radar this morning indicates that the temperature during the game will be in the forties and there will be scattered showers that will increase throughout the afternoon. If this game was a later kickoff, I would be more concerned.

Yesterday's forecast said, "driving, freezing sleet," so the outlook has improved considerably.

In the Bengals' last five home games, they scored 49, 41, 42, 42 and 34 points. The Chargers cannot be thinking they are going to win this one with 20 points and simply cannot afford to be conservative on offense.

Yesterday's games are a compelling reminder that no lead is safe in the playoffs and the team with the lead will not be trying to burn clock until it is very late. The OVER is the play.

MTi's FORECAST: CINCINNATI 31 San Diego 27