1-5-14

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JOE GAVAZZI FOOTBALL

4% Bengals -6.6
3% Packers +3
4% Arkansas St +7.5
3% Ball St/ Ark St OVer 63

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MTI Sports

4-Star GREEN BAY +3 over San Francisco
We'll start the reasoning with a very compelling trend involving the fact that the 49ers are 12-4 and the Packers are 8-7-1. The reason why this one is in Green Bay rather than San Francisco is that the 49ers were the Wildcard behind the 13-3 Seahawks and the Packers were a division winner.
In the NFL playoffs, home teams with fewer wins than their opponent are a 18-8-1 ATS in the history of our database - including 8-2 straight up and 8-2 ATS recently. Even more compelling is the fact that home teams with at least three fewer wins on the season are a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS and these are worth checking out with this SDQL text:

playoffs=1 and o:wins - wins >= 3 and H

The four games include: the Patriots' 20-17 win over the Rams as a 14-point dog in the 2001 Super Bowl, the Chargers 23-17 win over the Colts in 2009, the 8-8 Seahawks huge 41-36 upset over the Saints as a double-digit dog in 2010 and The Broncos' 29-23 win over the Steelers as an 8.5-point dog led by Tim Tebow in 2012.

Teams in this spot have covered by an average of 13.4 ppg.

Fitting in perfectly here is the fact that the Packers themselves are 6-0 ATS versus any team with more wins after playing on the road, covering by an average of 15.3 ppg. Two of these wins came in the playoffs, as you can see by running this SDQL text:

team=Packers and o:wins>wins and p:A and date>=20101219

It is also worth mentioning that the Packers are 9-0 ATS at home after a road game in which fullback John Kuhn did not catch a pass, covering by an average of 16.6 ppg. The SDQL text is:

H and Packers:John Kuhn:receptions=0 and p:A and date>=20091201

Green Bay is 0-4 ATS at home after a road game in which John Kuhn DID catch a pass.

The 49ers have a lot of good numbers, and it would be easy to make a case for them by quoting stats. However, but a closer inspection reveals major flaws. San Francisco is 0-7 SU and 0-7 ATS on the road after a road win in which they had at least one TD pass. The SDQL text is:

team=Fortyniners and A and p:AW and p:PTD>0 and date>=20020101

In their last four in this spot, they scored 14, 16, 13 and 13 points respectively.

In their last two games, the Niners allowed Matt Ryan to throw for 348 yards and Carson Palmer to throw for 407 yards but won them both because they benefitted for a 2-0 takeaway margin in each. This is not a good sign. The Niners are 0-11 ATS on the road after a win in which they allowed at least 310 passing yards and a completion percentage of less than 75%. The SDQL text is:

team=Fortyniners and A and po:PY>=310 and p:W and po:CP<75 and date>=19981201

Note that the Niners are 0-7 SU their last seven and they scored 6, 3, 16, 14, 7, 13, and 3 points in these seven games respectively, the last of which was their 29-3 loss to the Seahawks this season. On the average, they have fallen short of the linesmakers' expectations by an average of MORE than two touchdowns. Brutal.

It certainly can be argued that the 49ers are better on paper, but this game isn't being played on paper, it is being played in Green Bay. Grab the three points.

MTi's FORECAST: GREEN BAY 23 San Francisco 20

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Best Weekend Wagers with Weekend Warrior January 05, 2014 6:26 AM by Mark Mayer

NHL Hockey

60 Chicago Blackhawks -150: The Blackhawks were idle Saturday and benefit from San Jose having played the night before.

Results NHL (0-0-0) Overall Record: 10-6-0

NFL Football Playoffs

105 San Diego Chargers / Cincinnati Bengals OVER 46: Bengals were 8-0 both SU/ATS and far more explosive on offense compared to on the road. Chargers QB Philip Rivers in top form.

107 San Francisco 49ers / Green Bay Packers UNDER 46: Ice Bowl II with temperatures predicted to be below zero by game time. Expect this to be decided in the trenches.

Results NFL (Sat 0-2-0) Overall Record: 26-33-1

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PICK ADDICT

1* NFL [106] Cincinnati Bengals -7

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NBA Basketball Play of the Day January 05, 2014 6:23 AM by GT Staff

Boston Celtics +10 at Oklahoma City Thunder at 4:05 p.m. PST

The Celtics have seen four of their last five games decided by 3 points or less. Oklahoma City on second of back to back and may be fatigued flying back home. Meanwhile Boston rested.

809 Boston Celtics +10


Results 2013-14 NBA (Sat.1-0-0) Overall Record: 7-6-0

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GamingToday's Consensus Picks January 05, 2014 6:14 AM by GT Staff

NFL Football Playoffs

106 Cincinnati Bengals -7: The Chargers make the cross country trip into cold Cincy were the Bengals have won and covered all eight of their home games this year and QB Andy Dalton is playing with confidence.

108 Green Bay Packers +3: Somehow the Pack got back into the playoffs winning their last game with a miracle late TD by Rodgers who finally came back. Talk about cold, well this one will be a frozen tundra something the Niners are not use to.

Results 2013-14 NFL (0-2-0) Overall Record: 63-58-7

NBA Basketball

810 Oklahoma City Thunder -9½: We will rely on Parry’s Power Guide as he has the Thunder rolling over the Celtics in this game by more than 20 points.

812 Dallas Mavericks -6½: The Power Guide has the Mavs as a double digit winner.

814 Los Angeles Lakers +1: The last of the three Power Guide plays will be on the Lakers who the Guide has as the straight up winner by more the six points.

Results 2013-14 NBA (0-0-0) Overall Record: 39-31-4

NHL Hockey

54 Carolina Hurricanes -135: Carolina at home sitting on a three game win streak, they look to make it four.

56 Anaheim Ducks -160: The Ducks have won two straight while the visiting Canucks have dropped three in a row.

Results 2013-14 NHL (0-0-0) Overall Record: 58-42-1

NCAA Basketball

827 Missouri State -2½: This is the Parry’s Power Guide play of the day in college hoops as the Guide has them 10 points better.

Results 2013-14 NCAA BK (Sat. 2-1-0) Overall Record: 33-25-0

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Cappersadvantage

CharlotteSports
6.5 Teaser: Cincy pK & SF +3.5
Cincy -6

Big E
ML Parlay - SF & Cincy

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CHRIS JORDAN

200 Bengals/Chargers over

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California Sports:

• 4* = Missouri State -4.5
• 4* = Boston U +1.5
• 3* = Northwestern +15

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Master Sports:

• 4* = Grizzlies +2.5
• 4* = Wake Forest +6

[golden contender]

GC: NBA PLAY

Sunday card has the Triple System NFC Side with systems that date to 1977, their is also a Double 90% Early NFL Winner, the 5* Go Daddy Bowl total and another 5* NBA Total that has 100% and 94% systems. NBA Top ranked. Big 6* NFL Total +5* on Saints cash big on Saturday. Free NBA 3* Total below.


On Sunday the free 3* NBA Totals Play is on the Over in the Boston at OKC. Game. Rotation numbers 809/810 at 7:05 eastern. This game applies to a nice totals system that plays to the over for road dogs of 10 or more with rest, like Boston here, that covered the spread by 1-3 points as a home dog last out, and are playing an opponent that played on the road. If the total in these games is 190 or higher they have flown over 85% of the time since 1995. OKC has no rest playing last night in Minnesota. Look for an up and down game resulting in an over. On Sunday there are three 5* Football plays both NFL Sides and the 5* Go daddy Bowl total. In the NBA we are top ranked and have a Double system 5* Total one total has never lost the other cashed 94%. The NFL Plays are from system dating as far back as 1977. Those with us on Saturday scored a big 6* NFL Win over KC and a 5* on The Saints. More damage on Sunday. For the free play take The over in the Boston at OKC Game.

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TMC Sports Advisors

Cincinnati -7

San Diego/Cincinnati Over 46

Green Bay +2.5


Free Pick

Celtics +10

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Betting Line Moves

Loyola Chicago +2.5

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doc

5 Unit Play. #636 Take Wisconsin Badgers -6 over Iowa Hawkeyes (8 pm BTN) Both of these teams should be atop the standing in the Big Ten come March; however, getting this low of a number with Wisconsin at home is just too good to pass up. Wisconsin just does not lose very often at the Kohl Center under Bo Ryan and this will have extra motivation for this game as a former player now plays for Iowa.

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