10-31-15

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Maddux

#123 - 10 units on South Florida +9
#176 - 10 units on Cincinnati -24
#184 - 10 units on Southern Miss -21
#204 - 10 units on UCLA -19.5

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Andy Iskoe (CFB)

Top Play Houston -11

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Spartan

3* - Florida

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Dave Essler

3* sec goy - Florida ML

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GoodFella GOY

Over The Total Washington State vs. Stanford play up to 64

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Fezzik | CFB Side Sat, 10/31/15 - 2:30 PM
triple-dime bet 184 Southern Miss. -23.0 (-110) Pinnacle vs 183 UTEP

Analysis: Vegas opened this game WAY too low.

We expect a 30+ point blowout win here by Smiss over a truly horrible Utep team.........


Jump on this one ASAP!


Market UPDATE: The line jumped to 24.5, and now we are looking at 70% rain and maybe some wind.


Lower this one to a normal 2* play at the current conditions......

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Dave Cokin

[129] Umass +2.5
[141] Georgia St +18
[150] Wash St +11
[194] Boston Coll +2.5
[200] Minnesota U +14

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Indian Cowboy

5-Unit Play. #203. Take Colorado +22.5 over UCLA
3-Unit Play. #146. Take Washington -4 over Arizona

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NORTHCOAST SPORTS ECONOMY CLUB SELECTIONS

1. Notre Dame -9.5 (TOP SELECTION)
2. Marshall -19
3. Iowa -17
4. USC -6
5. Virginia +6
6. Minnesota +14
7. South Carolina +17
8. Oklahoma St -3
9. Tennessee -8.5
10. Akron +3.5
11. Washington -4.5
12. Oklahoma -39

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Davis



5-Unit Play. Take #159 Oklahoma St -2.5 over Texas Tech (Saturday, October 31st at 3:30 pm)

Let me be as blunt as I can be: Texas Tech is absolutely atrocious on defense. They couldn't stop you playing quarterback with our group of handicappers as your offensive line and skill position players. Seriously, they are horrible. That puts an inordinate amount of pressure on the offense. While TT's offense can score some points, it certainly isn't consistent. And that's putting it mildly. I really like Kingsbury but his idea of forcing a few turnovers/field goals and outscoring teams will have to change before he becomes a top-tier head coach. The talent in this game will be close with Okl St having a slight advantage. But the defensive advantage belongs to the Cowboys and in the end, this game will come down to who can get the most stops. The answer is simple: not Texas Tech!
Take Oklahoma State.


4-Unit Play. Take #172 Kentucky +8.5 over Tennessee (Saturday, October 31st at 7:30 pm)

Tennessee is too young and too inconsistent to be favored by 8.5 points over anyone in the SEC, even Kentucky. I certainly like the way the Vols have played recently as they took Alabama to the brink and they beat UGA at home. However, I can envision a situation where they may have a bit of a letdown this week at Kentucky. They are coming off the emotional win vs UGA two weeks ago and the close loss at Bama last week and now they play lowly Kentucky. This team is not mature enough to avoid letdowns. Kentucky is not a very good team but they do have some explosive players on offense including Boom Williams. They have close losses vs Florida and Auburn at home and a win over Missouri. An upset in this spot would not shock me at all but I will run to the window with the 8+ points.
Take Kentucky

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JASON SHARPE



7 Unit Play Take #165 Illinois +4.5 over Penn State (12:00pm est):

Penn State is 6-2 overall coming into this one but I'm not buying into it that at all. The Nittany Lions have got 'the worse' from quite a few opponents thus far as they benefited from a +3 fumbles situation in their win over San Diego State, faced a Rutgers squad that was missing a ton of key guys due to suspension including their head coach, won against an Indiana sqaud who was without their starting quarterback in the game and Penn State was also +5 in turnovers combined in their two close wins over Army and Maryland, both of which they failed to cover the point spread against either. Overall they've only won just one game this season against a team that has a winning record.
Illinois has a big edge in this one as the Illini play in their 2nd game back from a bye week while Penn State plays for the 9th straight week in a row. This is can be a huge advantage for one team over another when you get late in the season as not only does it help give each team a 2nd chance to work on some different things but most importantly it allows them to improve on their injury situation as well. Illinois beat Penn State last season by a 16-14 score and they've also played the much tougher schedule between the two teams this season so far as well.
Take Illinois and the points here.


3 Unit Play Take #181 Western Kentucky -24 over Old Dominion (12:00pm est):

Old Dominion will be starting Shuler Bentley at quarterback in this one. Bentley has struggled all year at qb for ODU and was replaced a few games ago by David Washington who ignited the Monarchs offense. Washington was hurt late in the last game and now it goes back to redshirt freshman Bentley here. ODU has struggled in a big way this year when facing decent offenses and they face a great one here in Western Kentucky.

WKU played better than I expected last week against mighty LSU despite the final score being 48-20. The Hilltoppers were down just 14-7 at the half in the game. They have won by an average of 28 points per game and averaged 51 points per game in contests against non-power five conference teams and overall have faced a tougher schedule than ODU this season. There's no reason WKU can't score 45 points or more in this game meaning ODU will need to score over 20 points to cover this spread. Keep in mind that in games started by Bentley, the Monarchs have averaged just under 15 points a game against FBS teams.
Take Western Kentucky minus the points here.


3 Unit Play Take #164 Iowa State +5.5 over Texas (7:00pm est):

You won't find many teams excited over an 18 point loss but that's the feeling around this Iowa State program right now. The Cyclones came storming back down 35-0 last week and got to within 15 points on the road against the mighty Baylor Bears. The ISU defense held Baylor quarterback Seth Russell to under 200 yards passing in the game and just a 43% completion rate in the game. It was the 2nd week in a row that Iowa State played was closer than most expected them to be against two heavyweight teams in TCU and Baylor. The real excitement though came from the play of quarterback Joel Lanning as it was Lanning who led the ISU come back in the game as the sophomore went 12 of 17 in the contest and earned the start here against Texas.
The Longhorns have won two games in a row but were in nice scheduling spots in both contests. They faced a depleted and worn out Kansas State squad last week and did enough to beat them 23-9. The week earlier they won a big rivalry game over an Oklahoma squad that was coming off a big win the week before and most likely didn't have their full attention in the game. Texas won this game last year in a game seesaw affair that seen 6 ties and 7 lead changes as Texas kicked a field goal to win 48-45 with 3 seconds left.
Look for the Cyclones to get some revenge here in this one. Take Iowa State plus the points.


3 Unit Play Take #167 Vanderbilt +12 over Houston (7:00pm est):

This is a very difficult game for the betting markets to place a point spread on as these two teams have played much different schedules thus far. Houston hasn't faced a team with a winning record this year and their opponents have a combined record of 8-30 overall against FBS teams this year. The perception with this Houston offense is of a high flying passing offense but the reality is their passing game is a little above average. It's the Cougars run game that has been carrying this squad but things will be a lot tougher here for them in this one as they will be without 3 starting offensive lineman in this game against a decent SEC defense.
Vanderbilt should be fired up for this one as they'd love nothing more than to knock off an undefeated team and have nothing to lose in this one. The Commodores are a much improved football team this year especially on defense where they've done a great job so far shutting down opposing offenses. The Vanderbilt defense has allowed just 16 points per game in 2015 and they've been in every game this season. The big question here in this one that must be asked is: if Houston had played the Vanderbilt schedule of home versus Western Kentucky, Georgia and Missouri and at Mississippi, Middle Tennessee State and South Carolina, what would the Cougars record be coming into this game. There's no way that the Cougars would be undefeated currently and there's also a good shot they'd could be under .500 on the season right now also.
Let's take advantage of this mistake in the line here and take Vanderbilt plus the points in this one.


3 Unit Play Take #202 UNLV +20.5 over Boise State (3:30pm est):

UNLV returns to action after their bye week last weekend and face a Boise State team who has played all nine weeks of this season so far. The Rebels have played better than most people expected this year under new head coach Tony Sanchez. They come in off their most frustrating loss of the season last game as they couldn't hang on late after getting out to a 14 point lead in the 3rd quarter . Most importantly though they're getting back their starting quarterback Blake Decker here in this one and that's huge as the senior has missed lots of action this year and when he's been out his replacement Kurt Palandech has struggled to move the Rebels offense.
Boise State looked like a tired football team last week as they struggled in the 2nd half against a bad Wyoming squad, only outscoring the Cowboys by a 10-7 score. The Broncos were thrashed the week prior at Utah State 52-26 as injuries on their offensive line continue to mount as they've averaged barely above 3.0 yards per carry in their last two contests. For as strong of a reputation as Boise State has for blowing teams out most of their big wins have come on their home blue turf back. The Broncos have failed to win by 20 points or more on the road in 13 of their last 16 road contests.
Take UNLV plus the points here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alan Harris



4 Unit Play. Take #141/142 Georgia St. vs. Arkansas St Over 59.5 (7:00 PM, Saturday, October 31)

Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet on Saturday night when the Georgia St. Panthers travel to take on the Arkansas St. Red Wolves at Centennial Bank Stadium in Jonesboro, AR. Georgia St. has posted a 7-2-1 record to the over in their last ten Sun Belt Conference games and they have gone a perfect 6-0 to the over in their last six games following an ATS win. Arkansas St. has been an over team as well in the spot they are in here on Saturday night as they have gone 7-1 to the over in their last eight games following a straight up win and they have that same 7-1 record to the over in their last eight home games. Throw in the fact that the Red Wolves have gone 21-7 to the over in their last 28 Sun Belt Conference games and that they have gone over the posted total in thirteen of their last sixteen games where they faced a team with a losing record and that's where we'll have our play in a game that we see turning into a shoot-out in Jonesboro on Saturday night.


3 Unit Play. Take #149/150 Stanford vs. Washington St. Over 62 (10:30 PM, Saturday, October 31, ESPN)

Two teams that have been trending to the over will meet on Saturday night when the Stanford Cardinal travel to take on the Washington St. Cougars at Clarence D. Martin Stadium in Pullman, WA. Stanford has posted a 5-1 record to the over in their last six games following a straight up win and they have gone a perfect 5-0 to the over in their last five games where they faced a team with a winning record. The Cougars have been an over team as well in the spot they are in here on Saturday night as they have gone over the posted total in five of their last six games following an ATS win and they have a 20-8 record to the over in their last 28 home games. Throw in the fact that these two teams have a combined 9-3 record to the over in their last 12 conference games and we'll look for points in Pullman on Saturday night in a game between two teams that can really light up the scoreboard.


5 Unit Play. Take #153 USC -5.5 over California (3:00 PM, Saturday, October 31, FOX)

The USC Trojans will look to back to back wins after their victory last week over Utah when they travel to take on the California Golden Bears at Memorial Stadium in Berkeley, CA on Saturday afternoon. The Trojans looked great last week in the win over the #3 Utes and they have been pretty good in the spot they are in here on Saturday. They have posted a perfect 5-0 ATS record in their last five games at Cal. The Golden Bears, on the other hand, have really struggled in the situation they are in here as they have gone just 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games played in the month of October and they have gone just 6-18 ATS in their last 24 home games. Throw in the fact that the road team has gone 6-2 ATS in the last eight head to head meetings between these two teams and we'll lay the points with the Trojans in a game that we have them winning by double digits on Saturday afternoon.


4 Unit Play. Take #156 Temple +11 over Notre Dame (8:00 PM, Saturday, October 31, ABC)

The Temple Owls will put their undefeated season on the line when they take on the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Lincoln Financial Field on Saturday night in Philadelphia. The Owls have posted an 8-3 record in their last eleven games where they faced a team with a winning record and they have gone an excellent 23-9-1 ATS after allowing less than 100 yards or less on the ground in their previous contest. Throw in the fact that Temple has gone 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall and we'll take the points with them on Saturday night a game where we think their defense will keep them in it until the end, covering the double digit number over the Fighting Irish.


4 Unit Play. Take #168 Houston -11.5 over Vanderbilt (7:00 PM, Saturday, October 31, ESPN 2)

The Houston Cougars will look to improve their record to 8-0 when they take on the Vanderbilt Commodores at TDECU Stadium in Houston on Saturday night. The Cougars have posted a 5-1 ATS record in their last six non-conference games and they have gone an excellent 21-8 ATS in their last 29 games where they faced a team with a losing record. Throw in the fact that Houston has gone 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games following a win by 20 or more points and we'll lay the number with them at home on Saturday as they know they need a big win over an SEC school to keep up with Memphis and Temple (other teams in the AAC) in the eyes of the pool voters on Sunday.


3 Unit Play. Take #174 Utah -24 over Oregon St (7:00 PM, Saturday, October 31, Pac-12 Network)

The Utah Utes will look to bounce back from their first loss of the season last week when they take on the Oregon St. Beavers at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Salt Lake City, UT on Saturday night. While Utah was outplayed in all aspects of the game in their loss to USC, they have been pretty good in the spot they are in here on Saturday and they get to play the team that we have rated the lowest in the conference. The Utes have also been able to bounce back well after an ATS loss, going 5-1 in their last six games where they were in that situation. Oregon St, on the other hand, has been awful in the spot that they are in here on Saturday night. They have gone just 1-10 ATS in their last 11 conference games and they have failed to cover in 13 of their last 16 games overall. Throw in the fact that Oregon St. has gone 0-5 ATS in their last five road games and we'll lay the big number with the Utes here in a game that they could win by 40+ if everything breaks right for them.


7 Unit Play. Take #176 Cincinnati -27 over Central Florida (12:00 PM, Saturday, October 31, ESPN)

The Cincinnati Bearcats will look to hand the UCF Knights their ninth loss this season when the two teams meet at Nippert Stadium in Cincinnati on Saturday afternoon. The Bearcats have posted an 8-1-1 ATS record in their last ten conference games and they have gone a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five games where they faced a team with a losing record. UCF, who is now 0-8 and dealing with the forced retirement of Head Coach George O'Leary, has been awful in the spot that we find them in here on Saturday afternoon. They have gone just 1-6 ATS in their last seven games following a straight up loss and they have failed to cover in eight of their last nine games overall dating back to last season. Throw in the fact that UCF has gone just 9-24 ATS in their last 33 games after they allowed more than 200 yards on the ground and we'll lay the big number with the Bearcats as we have them winning in blowout fashion over the Golden Knights on Saturday afternoon.


4 Unit Play. Take #179/180 UL-Monroe vs. UL-Lafayette Under 57 (5:00 PM, Saturday, October 31)

Two teams that have been trending to the under will meet on Saturday night when the UL-Monroe Warhawks travel to take on the UL-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns at Cajun Field in Lafayette, LA. UL-Monroe has posted a 5-1 record to the under in their last six road games and they have stayed under the posted total in 13 of their last 16 games following an ATS loss. Throw in the fact that the Warhawks have scored just 51 points in their last three games and we'll play the under here as we expect UL-Lafayette to score a bit but we're not sure that UL-Monroe will be able to do the same.


3 Unit Play. Take #205 Air Force -7 over Hawaii (10:30 PM, Saturday, October 31, CBS Sports Network)

The Air Force Falcons will look to build on their win last weekend over Fresno St. when they travel off the mainland to take on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at Hawaiian Airlines Field at Aloha Stadium on Saturday night. The Falcons have posted a 6-2 ATS record in their last eight games following a straight up win and they have covered in nine of their last thirteen games overall. Hawaii, on the other hand, has really struggled in the spot they are in here on Saturday night as they have gone just 1-5 ATS in their last six home games and they are an awful 3-13-1 ATS in their last 17 games played in the month of October. Throw in the fact that Hawaii has gone just 3-7-1 in their last eleven Mountain West Conference games and we'll lay the TD with Air Force here on the road as we think their triple option attack will be too much for Hawaii to handle.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vernon Croy


CFB Game of the Week



5-Unit Play. Take #147 San Diego State -3 over Colorado State (Saturday, October 31 at 3:30 PM ET)

This pick falls into one of my top CFB systems and the Aztecs are the better team here on both sides of the ball. The Aztecs rank 14th in the country for rushing yards (1651 ry) and 15th in the country defensively for rushing yards against (805). The Aztecs have allowed just 289.5 yards per game this season and while Colorado State has allowed 401 ypg and 1435 ry overall. The Aztecs have had a tougher strength of schedule overall to back up those stats and they are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games played against the Rams. The Aztecs are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27conference games and the Rams are just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing a team that has a winning record. Play San Diego State with confidence.

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Gold Medal Club CFB Selections

140 Auburn
148 Colorado State
149 Stanford
172 Kentucky