Friday 8/28/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park

08/28/20, GP, Race 9, 4.14 ET
08/28/20,GP,9,1M [Turf] 1:31:02 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $39,500 (includes up to $5,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. Weight, 120 lbs. Claiming Price $40,000, if for $35,000, allowed 2 lbs. ($7,500 from FBIF pending availability of purse supplement funds). (If deemed inadvisable to run this race over the turf course, it will be run onthe main track at One Mile) (Rail at 96 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	5	Blue Paynt	3-1	Prado E S	McPeek Kenneth G.	SFELC	46.67	2.05/$1
097.4508	7	Beach Chick	6-1	Meneses M	Barbazon III Lester		46.67	2.05/$1
097.0916	6	Gulf Coast Gal(b+)	4-1	Jaramillo E	Nicks Ralph E.	JW	46.67	2.05/$1
096.2068	2	Samurai Fighter	9/2	Lebron V	Casse Mark E.		46.67	2.05/$1
095.3467	9	Zap Mama	7/2	Zayas E J	Maker Michael J.	T	46.67	2.05/$1
094.7243	4	Viburnum	5-1	Arroyo A S	Danner Kelsey		46.67	2.05/$1
094.1652	1	Workin Ecliptical	20-1	Torres C A	Parra Hernan		46.67	2.05/$1
093.0295	8	Indy Front	30-1	Maragh R	Bagwandeen Pernel		46.67	2.05/$1
090.2066	3	Tonala	30-1	Fuentes M	Rodriguez Angel M.		46.67	2.05/$1

* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 21.92, ROI 0.70/$1
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	5	Blue Paynt	3-1	Prado E S	McPeek Kenneth G.	SFELC	33.66	1.19/$1
097.8343	6	Gulf Coast Gal(b+)	4-1	Jaramillo E	Nicks Ralph E.	JW	38.36	1.28/$1
096.6743	7	Beach Chick	6-1	Meneses M	Barbazon III Lester		28.07	1.28/$1
095.4315	2	Samurai Fighter	9/2	Lebron V	Casse Mark E.		24.30	0.74/$1
095.0650	9	Zap Mama	7/2	Zayas E J	Maker Michael J.	T	28.07	1.28/$1
093.8836	4	Viburnum	5-1	Arroyo A S	Danner Kelsey		24.30	0.74/$1
093.1955	1	Workin Ecliptical	20-1	Torres C A	Parra Hernan		24.30	0.74/$1
092.8466	8	Indy Front	30-1	Maragh R	Bagwandeen Pernel		28.07	1.28/$1
090.6063	3	Tonala	30-1	Fuentes M	Rodriguez Angel M.		28.07	1.28/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 25.00, ROI 0.96/$1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Saratoga/Del Mar Wagering Strategies - 8/28/20

---

August 28, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saratoga/Del Mar
Friday, August 28, 2020
*

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
*
It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
*
*
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
*
The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches.
*
Today’s Del Mar Best Plays:

Del Mar – Race 7: Post Time 5:09 PT.
5 – Carpe Fortuna (6-1)

Let’s take a gamble with this first-time starting juvenile filly in a five furlong turf dash that on paper looks fairly wide open. The daughter of Carpe Diem out of a half-sister to Lucky Pulpit breezed a sizzling quarter mile in 20 4/5 seconds at the OBS April sale preview session while displaying quick action and super speed and should be plenty of fit after a healthy recent series of easy drills for trainer P. Eurton. If she breaks with her field, she can win, so at 6-1 on the morning line let’s use her in the win pool and in all of our rolling exotics.

*
Del Mar – Race 8: Post Time 5:39 PT
5-Message (7/2)

Freshened since May, Message has been looking quite sharp in morning drills for B. Baffert and should fire a big shot in the five-runner edition of the Tranquility Lake S. for older fillies and mares. Most effective when on or near the lead, the daughter of Warrior’s Reward catches a field without too much speed, so we’re expecting F. Pat to employ front-running tactics and coax her along from there. Her best effort is good enough, so at 7/2 on the morning line she’ll offer value as a win play and a potential rolling exotic single.

*
*

Saratoga Analysis and Wagering Strategies:

RACE 1: Post 1:10 ET. Grade: X
Use: 2-Captain Bombastic; 5-Dream Bigger

Forecast: The Friday opener features three-year-olds competing in a 100K New York Stallion S. series race at six and one-half furlongs on the main track in a race that drew just five starters. Captain Bombastic finished a respectable fourth in the H. Allen Jerkens S.-G1 earlier this month and today returns to state-bred company and is listed as the 3/5 morning line favorite. A winner of a similar affair two runs back at Belmont Park, the son of Forty Tales has the proper stalking style for this extended sprint trip and seems likely to produce the last run. Dream Bigger finished third to our top pick in the Mike Lee S. in June and then was out of his element when unplaced in a two-turn turf stakes here earlier this month. He’ll have every chance with a pace-pressing trip outside to turn the tables on ‘Bombastic and must be given a legitimate chance to do so. In a race that we’ll otherwise pass, both should be included in rolling exotic play.
*
*
RACE 2: Post 1:44 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Princess Fawzia; 5-Hurricane Breeze

Forecast: This race remains on grass but has been switched from the inner course to the Widener (outer) track. Princess Fawzia has improved with each start and after a couple of brutal beats vs. similar starter’s allowance company should be able to seal the deal today. The lightly-raced daughter of Cairo Prince can win on the lead or as a stalker depending upon the race flow so I. Ortiz, Jr. can play it by ear. Hurricane Breeze, a closing fourth in the same race our top pick exits, may be the one to fear in the final furlong if the pace turns up better than average (it might) and is worth including on your ticket as a back-up or a saver.
*
*
RACE 3: Post 2:20 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Rejected Again; 6-Principal Dancer

Forecast: This race has been significantly impacted with the overnight scratching of two main players, Wardenofthenorth and Swordsman, leaving a field of just six. Principal Dancer has a solid runner-up effort over the local main track under these conditions last month while earning a career top speed figure and a repeat of that race today makes him the one to beat. Rejected Again, freshened since March, shows up cheap for G. Gullo, so he may have issues. The son of Tapizar projects to be part of the pace throughout and against this group could stick around long enough to survive. We’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play
*
*
RACE 4: Post 2:54 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Cobble Hill; 2-Stage Left

Forecast: The contention is drawn inside in this starter’s allowance sprint for $50,000 claimers with Stage Left clearly the fastest of the sixpack based strictly on numbers. The W. Ward-trained gelding was in a tad tough when fourth in first-level allowance company earlier this month but a repeat of his sharp, highly-rated score two runs back will be more than good enough to win. The son of Congrats is most effective when on or near the lead throughout and in a field without any blazers he should draft into a comfortable pace-stalking position. Cable Hill is protected in a sign of confidence by R. Rodriguez after being claimed out of a seven length win for $16,000 two runs back and then finishing a strong runner-up on the raise to $35,000 with a career top speed figures when wheeled back last month. If he can avoid trouble from the rail, the late-running sprinter by Verrazano will be heard from in the final furlong.
*
*
RACE 5: Post 3:30 ET. Grade: B
Single: 2-Party At Page’s

Forecast: This state-bred maiden juvenile filly sprint has been switched from turf to the main track. Party at Page’s was more than eight lengths clear of the rest when nosed out in her debut over this track and distance last month and a repeat of that effort today should be good enough to land her in the winner’s circle, unless there’s a hot shot first-timer in the field (and we’re not seeing one). The daughter of Gemologist must leave cleanly from the rail but if she does she should be on or near the lead throughout. In the absence of any specific knowledge regarding the first-timers, we’ll settle on this J. Englehart-trained filly as a win play and rolling exotic single.
*
*
RACE 6: Post 4:06 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Dovima; 6-Back Channel

Forecast: Dovima appears set to graduate after missing in two photo’s in a pair of grass route affairs to begin her career. Today she shortens to a sprint, switches to the main track and shows an impressive bullet workout (5f, 1:00b, fastest 17) over the local main track to indicate she’ll handle the change in surface just fine. The filly that edged her last time, In Front, came back to verify the strength of the race by repeating on the raise vs. first-level allowance competition. Back Channel, in the money in both of her starts, most recently produced an improved speed figure when third in a hot race last month at Belmont Park and should manufacture another forward move after a recent bullet five furlong drill (1:01 3/5, fastest of 14). The L. Rice-trained filly is worth using on a ticket or two, with the main punch going to Dovima.
*
*
RACE 7: Post 4:41 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Battle Station; 2-Sayyaaf; 3-Matta; 5-New York’s Finest

Forecast: This is a messy affair requiring a spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll go four deep but if you find the need to use more, go right ahead. Battle Station is a late-running sprinter in a race that has plenty of front-running types and could produce the last run with clear sailing in the lane. He’s a winner of two of three career starts over the Saratoga turf course and his good recent form at Delaware Park and Parx shows he’s doing well and ready for another top effort. To us he looks more dangerous than his morning line of 10-1 gives him credit for. New York’s Finest is a real pro and will take them on the front end for as far as he can. A winner of 10 of 24 career starts and five of seven over the local lawn, the R. Rodriguez-trained son of City Zip is moving up in class but has numbers that fit well in this league. Matta is lightly-raced and improving and produced speed figures at Laurel Park that make him competitive on this circuit. At 10-1 on the morning line, the Tale Charge Indy gelding lands Johnny V. and offers a decent look at a price. Sayyaaf was a beaten choice when facing many of these same faces over this course and distance last month while encountering a rough trip but if he can secure a clean journey from the rail the C. Brown-trained colt may have a good look in a total scramble of a race. He’s likely to have to deal with plenty of early heat and hasn’t always been generous in the final furlong.
*
*
RACE 8: Post 5:14 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Irish Front; 4-Blindwillie McTell

Forecast: Irish Front is a promising colt making just his third career start and after crushing a maiden field over this track and distance last month and seems quite capable of repeating on the raise. The son of Summer Front earned a giant speed figure in victory and sports a steady, healthy work tab since for T. Pletcher. He’s 8/5 on the morning line and it would be surprising to see him go a couple of ticks lower. Blindwillie McTell, a recent third in a hot race at this level in his first outing since February, should produce a forward move with that effort behind him and is the one to fear most. A multiple stakes winner in New York bred company, the son of Posse hasn’t quite showcased similar talents in open company but has speed figures that fit and has the proper stalking style for this extended sprint distance. We’ll have tickets including both in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Irish Front.
*
*
RACE 9: Post 5:46 ET. Grade: X
Single: 1-Sweet Melania

Forecast: Sweet Melania is listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite and we suspect she’ll go even lower than that in this year’s edition of the Lake George S.-G3 for 3-year-old fillies over a mile on grass. She’s the best filly in the race, is fastest on speed figures, proven over the course, and is the controlling speed in a race that has little of it. The daughter of American Pharoah, fresh from a gate-to-wire win in the Wonder Again S.-G3 in June in her season debut and training steadily in the interim, is a logical short-priced rolling exotic single.
*
*
RACE 10: Post 6:16 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Madam Deputy; 8-Cainudothetwist

Forecast: This maiden claimer for fillies and mares has been transferred to the main track and will be contested at nine furlongs. Tread lightly. MTO entrant Madam Deputy is a first-off-the-claim play for Rudy and seems sure to improve after finishing a distant but respectable third in her debut at this level in a better than average affair at Belmont Park last month. The daughter of Constitution should enjoy today’s longer trip and really doesn’t have a whole lot to beat. Cainudothetwist, a solid runner-up in her only outing, is another likely to step forward; however, she’s bred more for grass than dirt so we’re just hoping she can run as well on the main track as she did over the Belmont Park lawn in early July. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics but the best advice is to include as many as your budget allows.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee

Aug 28 '20, 3:10 PM in 50m
MLB | Twins vs Tigers
Play on: Twins -149 at betonline

PICK - Minnesota Twins -149
RATING: 30*
ROT#: 907
No way I'm passing up a play on the Twins at -149 in Game 1 of their double-header with the Tigers. I really think this line should be pushing -200 with the edge Minnesota has on the mound.
Detroit is sending out Matt Boyd for his 7th start of 2020. In the first 6, he's got an atrocious 8.48 ERA and 1.744 WHIP. He's given up 8 homers in 28.7, which is about 2.5 HRs/game. He's facing one of the best power lineups in baseball in the Twins. In Boyd's last 5 starts vs the Twins, he's given up 13 home runs!
Minnesota will counter with Randy Dobnak. He is 5-1 with a 1.78 ERA and 1.022 WHIP in 6 starts. The only reason he's not a big name right now is he doesn't strike guys out. He's got 16 K's in 30 1/3 innings. Media just doesn't give these guys a lot of love. Give me the Twins -149!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Martin

Aug 28 '20, 6:37 PM in 4h
MLB | Orioles vs Blue Jays
Play on: Blue Jays -1½ -105 at 5Dimes

1 Unit FREE PLAY on Toronto Blue Jays -1.5 (-105)
The Toronto Blue Jays beat the Red Sox 9-1 yesterday to get back above .500 for the season. They are a nice young team with a potent lineup that has scored 16 runs their last two games against the Red Sox. John Means is 0-2 with a 10.12 ERA in four starts this season for the Orioles with 12 earned runs allowed in 10 2/3 innings. Hyun-Jin Ryu is 2-1 with a 3.19 ERA in six starts this season, including 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA in his last three outings. Toronto should put away Baltimore early in this one and win by multiple runs. Give me the Blue Jays on the Run Line.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Walker

Aug 28 '20, 7:05 PM in 4h
MLB | Braves vs Phillies
Play on: Phillies -140 at Mirage

Free Pick on Phillies

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Williams

Aug 28 '20, 7:30 PM in 5h
MLB | Nationals vs Red Sox
Play on: Nationals -164 at YouWager

1* on Nationals -164

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sal Michaels

Aug 28 '20, 7:30 PM in 5h
MLB | Nationals vs Red Sox
Play on: Red Sox +148 at YouWager

Free Play on Red Sox +148

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Davis

Aug 28 '20, 8:15 PM in 5h
MLB | Indians vs Cardinals
Play on: Cardinals +118 at sportsbook

The Cardinals are worth a look here as a dog. McKenzie did have a nice start but that was only one game and it was against the Tigers. I think the value is coming from the Cardinals getting swept in the double header by the Pirates yesterday. Cardinals really need a bounce back and I believe they get it here tonight

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price

Aug 28 '20, 8:30 PM in 6h
Soccer | Náutico vs Guarani
Play on: Náutico +317 at 5Dimes

1* Free Pick on Náutico +317

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Price

Aug 28 '20, 9:10 PM in 6h
MLB | A's vs Astros
Play on: A's +105 at sportsbook

Dave’s Friday Free Play:
1* on Oakland A’s +105
The Key: The Oakland A’s (22-10) look like legitimate World Series contenders this season. The Houston Astros (17-14) are no longer the juggernauts they were before now that they’re not cheating, and plus they have lost their top 2 starters from last year in Cole and Verlander. The A’s have a huge edge on the rubber in this matchup. Chris Bassitt is 2-1 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.08 WHIP in 6 starts this year for Oakland. Bassitt is also 2-1 with a 3.68 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in 6 lifetime starts against Houston. Lance McCullers is 2-2 with a 5.74 ERA in 6 starts this year for the Astros. McCullers is 4-2 with a 4.40 ERA and 1.51 WHIP in 8 lifetime starts against the A’s. Take Oakland.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Totals Guru

Aug 28 '20, 9:10 PM in 6h
MLB | OAK vs HOU
Play on: UNDER 9½ -120

Free Total Annihilator On A's vs Astros under 9½ -120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jimmy Boyd

Aug 28 '20, 9:40 PM in 7h
MLB | Giants vs Diamondbacks
Play on: Giants +165 at 5Dimes

1* Free Pick on Giants +165

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bryan Leonard

Aug 28 '20, 9:40 PM in 7h
MLB | Giants vs Diamondbacks
Play on: Giants +162 at YouWager

929 San Francisco at Arizona
As much as we love the Diamondbacks starter Gallen, this line is much too heavy. The Giants have a wRC+ of 96 vs righties, just 4% worse than league average. Arizona on the other hand is 0-7 on the year vs southpaws with a 62 wRC+. That's second worse in all of baseball. Tyler Anderson was dominant in his last start throwing a nine inning shutout with an 83 game score. His success should continue here against the light hitting Diamondbacks.
PLAY SAN FRANCISCO

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Ness

Aug 28 '20, 9:40 PM in 7h
MLB | Giants vs Diamondbacks
Play on: Diamondbacks -157 at betonline

My free play is on the Arz D'backs at 9:40 ET.
The San Francisco Giants' seven-game winning streak ended with a thud on Thursday, as the hated-Dodgers swept the host Giants in a doubleheader (7-0 & 2-0) that took place because both teams agreed not to play Wednesday. The 15-18 Giants begin a five-game road trip Friday night in Arizona, the first of three vs the slumping D'backs. Arizona was 13-11 after winning SIX in a row from Aug 12-18 but welcomes the Giants to Chase Field having lost EIGHT straight games to fall to 13-19. The D'backs haven't played since Wednesday, as Colorado and Arizona did not play Thursday due to protest
Friday's pitching matchup is a 're-hook' from last Friday, when Tyler Anderson (1-1, 3.45 ERA) and the Giants beat the D'backs 5-1, who started Zac Gallen (0-0, 2.25 ERA). Anderson began his career with the Rockies in 2016 and over his first two seasons, went 11-12 with a 4.09 ERA over 34 starts. He made 32 starts in 2018, going 7-9 with a 4.55 ERA. He began the 2019 season in the Rockies rotation but was quickly placed on the DL due to knee inflammation. He came off the DL a week later and made five starts before being demoted to AAA. He underwent major season-ending surgery to correct a chondral defect on June 11 of 2019 in his left knee, which was expected to require a lengthy recovery time. He made just five starts in all of 2019, going 0-3 with an 11.76 ERA. Anderson was claimed off waivers by the San Francisco Giants on Dec 2. His 5-1 victory over the D'backs last Friday was the first complete game of his career!
You may have noted above that Zac Gallen has yet to have a decision in 2020 (win or loss), despite making six starts. However, Arizona is 4-2 in his starts, as he not only owns a 2.25 ERA but his WHIP is 1.06 (42-12 KW ratio) and his BAA is .202. Gallen pitched six strong innings last Friday against the Giants, allowing just three hits and one ER but again, settled for a no-decision. However, here's the rub. Gallen can set a major league record by allowing three or fewer ERs in his first 22 major league starts with another excellent outing here (note: He currently shares the record with former Boston Red Sox pitcher Aaron Sele).
Isn't Gallen long OVERDUE to pick up a "W?" Why not here vs Tyler Anderson?. After all, before pitching his first career complete game last Friday vs Arizona, Anderson had gone just 1-14 in his previous 20 starts (teams were 4-16). I'm with Gallen in this one. You in?
Good luck...Larry

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones

Aug 28 '20, 9:40 PM in 7h
MLB | Giants vs Diamondbacks
Play on: Diamondbacks -158 at betonline

Jack’s Free Pick Friday: Arizona Diamondbacks -158
The San Francisco Giants had their shocking seven-game winning streak come to an end in emphatic fashion yesterday. They were shut out in both games of their double-header with the Dodgers, and now they’re back to reality.
Now the Giants have to try and get back up off the mat and travel to Arizona to face the Diamondbacks in Game 1 of this series. They run into a highly motivated, rested Diamondbacks team that had yesterday off and will be hungry to end an eight-game losing streak.
Ace Zac Gallen is proving to be everything the Diamondbacks had hoped for and more when they traded with Miami for him. He has posted a 2.25 ERA and 1.056 WHIP in six starts this season with 42 K’s in 36 innings. Gallen allowed only one run in six innings on August 22nd against the Giants in his only career start against them.
Tyler Anderson is 0-1 with a 5.94 ERA and 1.620 WHIP in four road starts for the Giants this season. Anderson is 2-1 with a 5.95 ERA and 1.536 WHIP in eight career starts against the Diamondbacks. Arizona is favored heavily for good reason here due to its huge advantage on the mound. Bet the Diamondbacks Friday.