Saturday 10/7/23 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[ConleyPicks]

Matt Fargo

This is a play on the ARIZONA ST. SUN DEVILS+4.5 -115 for our Saturday Free Play. The Colorado love continues as it comes in as a road favorite after being a road underdog of three or more touchdowns in its first two road games. Granted, the competition goes down a bunch here but this team is filled with flaws. The defense did a great job against the run last week against USC but was lit up through the air once again and that is not good facing a team that has gotten its passing game going. The absence of Travis Hunter on the defensive side cannot be understated as the unit is allowing 36.6 ppg which is worst in the conference. Arizona St. has lost four straight games which is playing into this number as well but this is a good matchup in a very winnable games as a home underdog. The Sun Devils have come to life on offense since head coach Kenny Dillingham took over the offensive play calling and they are coming off their best games of the season with 430 totals yards and 6.0 yppl. They go against a Colorado defense that is ranked No. 124 in defensive EPA and their own defense has been strong with the exception of the game against USC. Here, we play on underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points that are averaging 2.5 or more turnovers per game and after 3 consecutive games with a turnover margin of -1 or worse going up against a team averaging 1.25 or fewer turnovers per game. This situation is 23-4 ATS (85.2 percent) since 1992. Play (378) Arizona St. Sun Devils

[ConleyPicks]

Dave Price

Dave's Saturday Free Play:

1* on Colorado/Arizona State OVER 59.5

The Key: Colorado is a clear OVER team with a great offense and terrible defense. It's rare you're going to have the opportunity to back an OVER on them the rest of the season of under 60 points. I like the price we are getting here. The Buffaloes have scored at least 36 points in 4 of their 5 games this year. The Buffaloes have allowed 35 or more points in 4 of their 5 games this year as well. Arizona State has a poor defense, but the offense has come to life in recent weeks. The Sun Devils scored 28 points on USC and 21 on a good California defense last week. They also had 430 total yards on the Golden Bears. Neither team can run the football, so both will be keeping it in the air in this one which will benefit the OVER. Colorado is 10-1 OVER in its last 11 road games off a game with 80 or more combined points. Take the OVER.

[ConleyPicks]

ASA

#378 ASA FREE PLAY ON Arizona State +4.5 over Colorado, Saturday at 6:30 PM ET - We expect an emotional letdown for Colorado here. They’ve been through 5 straight weeks of huge games @ TCU, Nebraska, Colorado State, @ Oregon, and USC. On top of that, last week they got down big 41-14 more than midway through the 3rd quarter vs USC before expending all kinds of energy rallying back to make it a game before losing 48-41. Now going on the road to play a ho hum opponent in ASU is a perfect spot for the Buffs to take a break and not play with the intensity they have been this season. If that happens, there is a good chance they lose this game outright. We’ve said this all season – the Buffs are a solid passing team but not really very good at anything else. Their offensive line is a mish mash of lower tier transfers (2 starters from the MAC) and returning players who weren’t effective last season. They have almost no running game ranking 120th nationally in that stat averaging just 83 YPG. Defensively they’ve been a sieve allowing 480 YPG ranking 128th in the country. Those factors do not bode well when laying points on the road. ASU is playing hard and they’ve improved. The last 2 weeks they’ve covered the spread by a combined 30 points vs USC and Cal. Last week the Devils put up 430 total yards, outgained Cal by a more than 100 yards, and nearly pulled the upset as a 13 point dog losing 24-21. The Sun Devils are trending in the right direction and this is a huge home game for them where as it’s Colorado’s least “sexy” game so far this season. Upset alert and we’ll grab Arizona State plus the points.

[ConleyPicks]

Info Plays

1* FREE INFO PLAY on Arizona State +4.5 -115

[ConleyPicks]

Brandon Lee

7* NCAAF Kentucky/Georgia Free Pick

PLAY ON GEORGIA BULLDOGS -14

I'm going to lay the 14-points with Georgia at home against Kentucky. This line makes no sense at all. On one side you have a Georgia team that despite a 5-0 SU record has failed to cover the spread in 5 straight games. Kentucky is also 5-0 SU, but they are 4-1 ATS and coming off an impressive blowout win and cover in a 33-14 home win over Florida as a mere 1-point favorite. The betting public has grown tired of laying the points with Georgia and are lining up to take the points with the Wildcats. Close to 70% of the action is on Kentucky right now. Given that you would expect this line to be dropping, but it's not. Most books have moved this to Georgia -14.5 with a couple going to -15. Whenever the public is all over a dog like they are here, I will almost always look to go the other way. This has all the makings of a statement game for the Bulldogs, who simply can't continue to play as poorly as they have to start games. I also think it's a bad matchup for Kentucky, who relies so much on their run game to get their offense going. It will not be easy running the ball against this Georgia defense. Give me the Bulldogs -14!

[ConleyPicks]

Doc's Sports

Free Play from Doc’s Sports. Take #402 Minnesota Golden Gophers+20.5 over Michigan Wolverines (7:30p.m., Saturday, October 7 NBC) Michigan will be playing their second straight road games and I do not see them blowing out another conference opponent. Michigan had a perfect start last week against Nebraska, but Minnesota will try and grind the clock on them and keep the scoring in the forties. Minnesota has been scoring points in their last two games and if they reach the twenties in this game, that should be enough to get the cover. Michigan has not looked great against subpar opponents and playing in back-to-back road games will not allow them the cover in this night game at Minnesota. Do not miss out on Doc’s Sports weekend card featuring MLB Playoff Picks, WNBA Finals Picks, and all the other sports including daily props. Get in on the action now and let 52 years of handicapping experience work for you.

[ConleyPicks]

Black Widow

1* Free Wiseguy Play on Michigan-18.5

*All picks are based on situations, trends, statistics and injuries among many other factors*

[ConleyPicks]

Ricky Tran

Ricky's 1* play on FRES-5.5 -115

Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.

- Fresno State are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games.

- Wyoming are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games played in October.

- Fresno State are 6-0 in their last 6 road games.

Verdict: The value is on the road favorite.

[ConleyPicks]

Vic Duke

Free Pick: Wyoming+6

Fresno State/Wyoming 8:00: On the surface, Fresno would appear to be a double-digit favorite in this game; after all, their defense has been lights out on their last 3 foes while UCF transfer QB Keene is averaging 300 YPG through the air en route to a 36.4 PPG average. A closer look at their last three foes reveal a combined 2-13 SU record. And after season opener at Purdue (narrow win), the Bulldogs traded points with FCS lightweight Eastern Washington. And Tedford lost a lot of talent from last year's winning team. Going up to Laramie to play into revenge will not be easy. Wyoming a sweet 11-2 ATS with revenge off back-to-back SU wins. Wyoming the call.

[ConleyPicks]

Rocky Atkinson

Rocketman Sports FREE CFB play Saturday 10-7-23

Colorado State @ Utah State (8:00 PM EST)
Play On: Colorado State -3

The Colorado State Rams travel to Utah State to take on the Aggies on Saturday night. Colorado State is 1-2 overall this year while Utah State comes in with a 2-3 overall record on the season. Colorado State averages 354 passing yards per game while their defense only gives up 103.7 rushing yards per game this year. Utah State is allowing 33.8 points per game overall this year, 36.5 points per game at home this season and 39 points per game past 3 games overall. Colorado State barely lost to Colorado a few weeks back while Utah State's offensive stats are a little misleading when they put up 78 points at home against Idaho State. We'll recommend a small play on Colorado State on Saturday night! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

[ConleyPicks]

Freddy Wills

Iowa State +7 -120 1.2% Free play

Iowa State has faced elite level defense so far, and the offense is gaining confidence and hitting strides. Overall they faced an average 24th ranked ypp defense, an average opponent 31st ranked passing success ranked defense, and 27th opponent success rate defense. It’s a pass first offense and they’ll get a chance to attack TCU who ranks 106th in passing success rate. Iowa State has not turned the ball over, and they play good defense especially at home. I think we are getting value with this number, and Matt Campbell 10-4-1 ATS as a home dog. It’s an 8pm home game against a team that went to the college football playoff. TCU just lost last week and gave up 200+ yards on the ground to West Virginia, a team that always struggles to play on the road.

[ConleyPicks]

Sean Murphy

Saturday MLB Free play. My selection is on Los Angeles-195 over Arizona at 9:20 pm et on Saturday.

Fairly obvious choice here as we'll fade the Diamondbacks off their stunning series sweep of the Brewers in the Wild Card round. The Dodgers will hand the ball to future Hall-of-Famer Clayton Kershaw and I expect him to continue his dominance over Arizona, noting he owns a 2.80 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in 45 career outings against it. Merrill Kelly will start for the D'Backs and he owns a 2-14 team record in 16 career starts against the Dodgers, logging a 5.70 ERA and 1.70 WHIP along the way. Having been idle since last Sunday with the N.L. West wrapped up for quite some time, the Dodgers can't wait to play 'real' baseball. Look for them to get rolling in a hurry on Saturday against Arizona. Take Los Angeles.

[ConleyPicks]

Hunter Price

1* Free Pick on Seattle Sounders FC+106 (Soccer)

[ConleyPicks]

Joseph D'Amico

Saturday’s FREE WINNER: Arizona Wildcats+21

Game 375.

7:30 PM PST/10:30 PM EST.

Guys, before you get in a big huff about me choosing Arizona against USC this week, take a deep breath and read my entire analysis (LOL). I'm not going to argue the fact the Trojans don't deserve to be the ninth ranked team in the nation. I mean come on, their offense is absolutely amazing. They rank first in college football in scoring, third in total yards, fourth in passing, and 50th in rushing. I'm also not going to argue quarterback, Caleb Williams, as of this point, is a definite Heisman-candidate. No question, head coach, Lincoln Riley has put together a hell of an offensive juggernaut. This in turn will certainly attract millions of dollars from other universities wanting to come and visit them. And tons of recruits wanting to show off their talents for NFL scouts. That's all well and good. But let's be very, very honest, this team has totally given up on defense. And yet the oddsmakers are still overvaluing them each week. They covered against Nevada and Stanford. But couldn't get bettors paid, failing to cover against San Jose State, Arizona State, and Colorado. As a matter fact, the last few opponents, the Sun Devils, and the Buffaloes, had them on the ropes. Guys, I'm not going sit here and argue that Arizona is going to take the conference. They won’t. Let's face it, they're just 3-2 straight up with wins against Northern Arizona, UTEP, and Stanford. They did come close against Mississippi State on the road as well as Washington at home, two teams that they on paper, are far inferior from. But this team does cover the pointspread, going 4-1 ATS this season. They have a less than stellar offense, but certainly strong enough to move the chains against the USC defense. Defensively, they hardly slowed down the Bulldogs and the Huskies, but they did play strong enough on both sides of the ball to keep those contests close. I doubt they're going to make this one too easy for the Trojans here. The status of quarterback, Jayden de Laura is still uncertain as of this post. But backup play-caller, Noah Fifita was good enough to compete last week against Washington. If he gets to start this week, I expect him to do the same. And with Notre Dame up next on the road at South Bend, perhaps Southern Cal might be in a “look ahead” mode or at the very least, take their foot off the gas come the second half. This is way too many points to give a very game, Arizona team. Take the Wildcats. Thank you.