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I'll likely drop a little bit on Schaub and see if I can't make back a little of what I lost when I bet against him on Tuchscherer. I'm already on Lesnar for a unit and a half, not sure if I'll add a bit more or not just yet. At that price I like Kampmann for a small play as well to be honest. He is a very underrated grappler in his own right(yes I know I just bashed him in another thread as he pertains to Paulo Thiago) but I think it's going to be his takedown defense and technical striking that could lead him to victory. Shields has a knack for winning even though by rights he shouldn't win simply because his skillset is so "out in the open" in the sense that you know exactly what he wants to do, what he has to do to win. Stopping it is the hard part.
2013: +8.24u(increased unit size on 5/19)
Favorites: 20-6 + 6.13u
Underdogs: 10-19 -2.51u
Ludo's Locks Parlay Project: +1.4u
Kampmann isn't stopping shields from getting him down. To me the question is whether or not shields will submit him or get a decision victory. What do you think Scientist?
Kampmann isn't stopping shields from getting him down. To me the question is whether or not shields will submit him or get a decision victory. What do you think Scientist?
That was my initial inclination too... and Shields is a very good grappler. But I think his takedowns might be slightly over sold right now. Prior to the Hendo fight, he was unable to get Lawler down and keep him there. He had to jump guard to get the fight down. Lawler has shown some stout TD defense though. The other issue is that Kampmann has a nasty front headlock series and it might be enough to keep Shields at bay for a while. I do think Shields will get him down though. I doubt he subs him though unless he gets that guillotine. I think Shields will drag it down and frustrate Kampmann eventually.
The flip side is that Kampmann's best game is his grappling. His striking isn't nearly as dangerous as the guys that Shields has been beating. I think it is Jake's fight to lose. He has cardio for miles, and he just had to not get rocked. Kampmann suprised the hell out of me with his grappling last time though. Shields is really good at going back and forth between his wrestling and jj though. I don't think Kampmann is going to be able to do that again. His path to victory is on the feet.
That said, my opinion is shit right now. Since I think Shields will win, that almost surely means Kampmann is going to dominate him. If I win my Askren bet, I may join you here though.
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