UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

^^ I see a lot of people that are really heavy on Brock. But for me, given the known quantities, I have yet to see something out of either fight that suggests Brock has an edge. For me, for Brock to win or Cain to lose, something we have not seen out of one of the fighters will have to happen. Either Brock's striking will have to have improved or Cain's cardio will have to fail him.

My guess is that Brock is going to try to press him against the cage for most of the round. This will make Cain have to carry his weight and keep Cain away from boxing him up. But I just don't think he will be able to do that. I think Cain will circle out and throw some close quarters punches and win the round. I think Cain will start to full take over about midway through the 2nd.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

I was originally all over Brocky here, but I am starting to think Cain will win.

Gun to my head, I would probably still bet Brocky, but I'm just gonna sit back and watch this one.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

^^^^^^^^LOL

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

^^ I see a lot of people that are really heavy on Brock. But for me, given the known quantities, I have yet to see something out of either fight that suggests Brock has an edge. For me, for Brock to win or Cain to lose, something we have not seen out of one of the fighters will have to happen. Either Brock's striking will have to have improved or Cain's cardio will have to fail him.

My guess is that Brock is going to try to press him against the cage for most of the round. This will make Cain have to carry his weight and keep Cain away from boxing him up. But I just don't think he will be able to do that. I think Cain will circle out and throw some close quarters punches and win the round. I think Cain will start to full take over about midway through the 2nd.

I personally think that is bad strategy for Brock. I think he actually loses the battle in the clinch. Cain has very good knees, and seems to be able to take guys down fron the clinch. Not to mention, like you said, if Cain gets just a split second away from the clinch, he could fire off rapid punches.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

I think we are the complete opposite sides on this card . I like Brock to win , I think -170 is way to high to lay on Hamill( maybe -110 to -120) and I really want to take Kampmann. I'd 100% be on Kampmann if the line hadnt dropped so much and the Madsen line has jumped way too high for me to touch

Still not sure who I'm betting this event

How do you see Brock winning it?

I was initially with on Tito... but then I started thinking about the fact that he has no advanatges at all in this fight, and he has a lay off, and that cervical fusion is a serious serious surgery. I wouldn't be totally shocked to see Hammill paralyze him in there. I am actually surprised they cleared him to fight, especially against a head grabber like Hammill.

Madsen is a near lock in my mind. I just don't give strikers a lot chances against guys that are committed to taking them down (unless they have takedown defense to stop or stall it). Yvel just comes out looking for a death blow now, and he could land it, but most likely he gets scooped up, slammed and kept there and maybe choked out.

I will probably end up staying away from Shields. His hype is high right now after the Hendo win. But he should be able to get Kampmann down, and he is a superior grappler. Kampmann doesn't have a lot of power to make a sudden KO... So think Shields will just Shields him.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

How do you see Brock winning it?

No comment .Anytime two sides disagree on a fight it turns into an argument and I dont feel like arguing with anyone.

I was initially with on Tito... but then I started thinking about the fact that he has no advanatges at all in this fight, and he has a lay off, and that cervical fusion is a serious serious surgery. I wouldn't be totally shocked to see Hammill paralyze him in there. I am actually surprised they cleared him to fight, especially against a head grabber like Hammill.

Madsen is a near lock in my mind. I just don't give strikers a lot chances against guys that are committed to taking them down (unless they have takedown defense to stop or stall it). Yvel just comes out looking for a death blow now, and he could land it, but most likely he gets scooped up, slammed and kept there and maybe choked out.
.

Dont get me wront I think Hamil probably wins but I dont like the -170 or higher on him . I just think the line is too high ,same with Madsen.
As for Shields I just have no opinion on it now .I though Kampmann was worth a shot at almost 3-1 but with the current line I really dont like either side

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

No comment .Anytime two sides disagree on a fight it turns into an argument and I dont feel like arguing with anyone.

I don't want to argue about it, I though the whole point of the forum was to get perspective's from other guys. If you don't want to break down any more fights... I have to banish you as your existence serves no purpose other than harassing SPX.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

I though the whole point of the forum was to get perspective's from other guys.

I thought so too maybe you should explain that to everyone else so everytime two people dont argee it doesnt turn into WWIII


Dont worry though my opinion isnt worth anything anyway I'm down for the year

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Fine. I will send the message out:

"stop being a bunch of bitches"


done.

[Luke]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Fine. I will send the message out:

"stop being a bunch of bitches"


done.

good job

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Yeah I don't see Brocks path to victory, other than landing a massive power shot and then swarming with some gnp that would have to be very very quick and powerful. I think Brock will have the Cardio to go 5 rounds. I think he is doing a 12 week training camp and they say he is in the best shape of this life. He still gets outworked by Cain though, those body shots will catch up to him.

I'm just curious. For all those on Cain, how do you see him winning and why? What chance do you give to tko, sub, dec?

[Svino]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

I will be on Cain, Shields, Hamill, and Madsen.

Madsen: I liked this at -200 where I got it. If you look at how Yvel lost his last fight, and how Madsen won his, I think you can combine them for something of a repeat performance. Madsen by control decision.

Shields: I think Kampmann is being more overrated because of his last performance than Shields is. I don't see Kampmann stopping the takedowns. Sure he'll have a significant striking advantage, but so did Shield's last dozen opponents, and how much good did it do them? Shields by control decision.

Hamill: Ortiz performance against Rashad and Griffin weren't bad, but he hasn't won a fight against someone not named Ken Shamrock since 2006 (or a unanimous decision since 2004). And he's coming off another long layoff plus surgery. I think Hamill has the better striking, and his wrestling is comparable to Ortiz's, if not better at this point. My main concern is in the quality of Hamill's competition. We know about Jardine, and Munoz was a good matchup for Hamill.

Cain: Actually, I would have taken either guy at +150. I'm pretty confident that Cain will be able to cancel Brock's wrestling, and has the better cardio, so he should be able to win a long striking match.

On the other hand, since it seems to be more in demand, let me try to make the Devil's Advocate argument for Brock:
1) Yes, Brock's standup looked like absolute crap against Carwin, but might some of that be due to his hesitation and fear? Everyone including Brock knows that Carwin hits like a truck, but I don't see him displaying the same striking tentativeness against Cain. At the very least, we know Brock has reach and power.

2) For his part, Cain's striking might be getting overrated. He looked awful in the standup against Kongo, and not even that good against Rothwell. The only thing he did *really* well in those fights was get takedowns. He didn't even do a particularly good job of holding Rothwell down, or doing damage in GnP to those guys (I thought the Rothwell stoppage was a little early). The only time Cain looked good in the standup was against Nog, and I'm sad to say I don't count that for much anymore.

3) Lets say there are several takedowns, and each guy spends a little time on top. I have a lot more confidence in Brock's ability to do damage in that interval than I do in Cain's.

4) Even though I think Cain will have better cardio, we don't really have proof of that.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

^^^^^^^^^^Thats good Shit Svino.

[zY|]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Some good points, Svino. One thing though. While the Rothwell stoppage might have been early or at the wrong time, to say Cain's GnP was not damaging is absurd. The first round was arguably the most lopsided round of a fight I have EVER seen. Countless huge power shots landed directly on his chin with his head snapping back and into the floor over and over. It was really a testament to Rothwell's chin and toughness that he never went out. One Sherdog judge and Junkie even scored the round 10-7 and it's hard to argue against. It was an absolute terrorizing. When Ben stood up at the end he looked like he had been run over by a bus.