UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

I did not see that Daniel Roberts was on this card. He is probably worth a bet at that line. Roberts is good, pretty underrated IMO.

On Stout, I don't know. Striker/Striker match.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

On Stout, I don't know. Striker/Striker match.

I'm gonna look into it. At this point, I suspect Stout's gonna sex him up.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Kampmann isn't stopping shields from getting him down. To me the question is whether or not shields will submit him or get a decision victory. What do you think Scientist?

That was my initial inclination too... and Shields is a very good grappler. But I think his takedowns might be slightly over sold right now. Prior to the Hendo fight, he was unable to get Lawler down and keep him there. He had to jump guard to get the fight down. Lawler has shown some stout TD defense though. The other issue is that Kampmann has a nasty front headlock series and it might be enough to keep Shields at bay for a while. I do think Shields will get him down though. I doubt he subs him though unless he gets that guillotine. I think Shields will drag it down and frustrate Kampmann eventually.

The flip side is that Kampmann's best game is his grappling. His striking isn't nearly as dangerous as the guys that Shields has been beating. I think it is Jake's fight to lose. He has cardio for miles, and he just had to not get rocked. Kampmann suprised the hell out of me with his grappling last time though. Shields is really good at going back and forth between his wrestling and jj though. I don't think Kampmann is going to be able to do that again. His path to victory is on the feet.

That said, my opinion is shit right now. Since I think Shields will win, that almost surely means Kampmann is going to dominate him. If I win my Askren bet, I may join you here though.

I think KAmpmann has been taken down a couple times, I know Condit got him down. I think Volkmann and Thiago got him down as well, just not very much and they themselves were taken down. The thing that sells me the most is the fact that Jake consistently outwrestled Dan Henderson for 5 rounds after he got rocked with that haymaker than almost knocked him out. That thing was hard, and he came back and outwrestled Hendo. Kampmann is good but he isn't hendo in the wrestling department. I think Shields is a lock. I'm starting to think that Kampmann might not get submitted by Shields also.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

I'm not sure where the line is going though. Where does everyone stand? Kampmann or shields?

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Also Court Mcgee, is he any good?

[SPX]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

I'm not sure where the line is going though. Where does everyone stand? Kampmann or shields?

I don't bet against Kampmann and I don't say he "won't" do anything. I'm not saying Kampmann will win here--it may play out exactly as you seem to think it will--but Kampmann has a way of surprising people. Kampmann definitely has the striking edge, and is himself good at subs and wrestling. I grabbed Kampmann at +285 and I'm happy with that.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Also Court Mcgee, is he any good?

If he wasn't coming off of TUF and fought those guys he beat during TUF on regional shows, Jensen would probably be a slight favorite lol. Or -115/-115

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

I actually think Taylor can beat Stout if the fight remains standing. Taylor is much quicker.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

I just watched a video interview with Joe Rogan where he says Kampmann is a really tough matchup for Shields. He brought up good points, Jakes striking is crap and Kampmann is hard to take down.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

He does hold wins over Yushin Okami, Carlos Condit, Daley, Lawler, Miller and Hendo though. This is a tough one to call. He is a two time all american at cuesta college. I used to live near there btw, nice fucking area. Beautiful beaches, San Luis Obispo. It's where the pit is. Anyways he also has a bronze medal from ADCC. I don't know. I thought this was a lock but now I am starting to question it.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Oh, he also submitted mike pyle.

[Ludo]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

.57u to win 1u on Kampmann
2u to win 2u on Sanchez
.65u to win 1u on Schaub
1.6u to win 1u on Cote
1.5u to win 1u on Lesnar

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Well i've been looking at Kampann and reading play by plays. I read from Barros up. Barros was able to get one takedown before getting battered, Volkmann didnt get any before getting battered and then submitted, condit was able to get him down a bit and thiago did a small amount. The one with the most success was Condit. The closest match to Shields seems to be Volkmann. A Grappler with little standup.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

I wouldn't put too much stock in the Volkmann fight. Volkmann is tiny, he is at 155 now, and could probably make FW. Kampmann spent most of his career @ MW. Shields' takedowns have definitely improved over the years. I think the biggest thing is that he just relentless on it. He is not content to let a standup fight play out. It is ground or bust for him. I think he will get it, but I just question what he is going to be able to do with it. He is not a real submission machine, he is more of a top control bjj gay, though he does have that guillotine. Kampmann's wrestling seems to have improved a lot though, so that is what has me staying away at this point.

[Ludo]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

I wouldn't put too much stock in the Volkmann fight. Volkmann is tiny, he is at 155 now, and could probably make FW. Kampmann spent most of his career @ MW. Shields' takedowns have definitely improved over the years. I think the biggest thing is that he just relentless on it. He is not content to let a standup fight play out. It is ground or bust for him. I think he will get it, but I just question what he is going to be able to do with it. He is not a real submission machine, he is more of a top control bjj gay, though he does have that guillotine. Kampmann's wrestling seems to have improved a lot though, so that is what has me staying away at this point.

More of a top controll bjj GAY? Freud says there are no accidents...