UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

Yeah Munoz was a D1 champ if i remember correctly. I'm not sure he was outgrappled by Grove..maybe he used bjj techniques. I doubt Grove out(Wrestled) him.

I didn't see the ed herman fight. I don't know much about Ed Herman. Munoz has power and decent technique. Has Simpson knocked anyone out without using ground and pound?

[Svino]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

You can see the Munoz / Grove fight here:

http://www.wat.tv/video/kendall-grove-c ... l8y5_.html

Munoz was having a pretty hard time taking Grove down, and Grove had some dangerous sub attempts on him when the fight did get to the ground. My read on Munoz as an MMA wrestler is that the only thing he does really well is get back to his feet. He is a hard guy to hold down, but his takedowns, takedown defense, and top control seem to be lacking.

Simpson isn't that dominant an MMA wrestler himself though; I'd have to watch more video of him to refresh my memory.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

It seems like Munoz was really going for broke in that fight. Maybe in a wrestler vs wrestler fight he will be more controlled. His shots have always been telegraphed, I don't seem him really taking down Simpson very much.

Simpson had a difficult time taking down Leben in their fights also. So maybe they both suck at offensive wrestling( for wrestlers).

Either way at negative money maybe SPX is right and I shouldn't bet.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

I went ahead and jumped on Simpson for half a unit. I would honestly not be surprised to see either guy win this one, so for me, that means go with the dog.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

Went ahead and pulled the trigger on George: 2.5u to win 1.1u.

He manhandled Stevenson and won two clear rounds against Pellegrino.

Lauzon looked excellent against Ruediger, but struggled in the wrestling against even against Stout and got chewed up on the feet. I know the Stout fight was his first after an injury layoff, but I still don't take the Ruediger win to mean that he's a monster now. Just means he looks great against lesser comp.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

Went ahead and pulled the trigger on George: 2.5u to win 1.1u.

He manhandled Stevenson and won two clear rounds against Pellegrino.

Lauzon looked excellent against Ruediger, but struggled in the wrestling against even against Stout and got chewed up on the feet. I know the Stout fight was his first after an injury layoff, but I still don't take the Ruediger win to mean that he's a monster now. Just means he looks great against lesser comp.

Joe was coming off a long layoff in the Stout fight and he gassed in the second round. I think J Lo's wrestling is pretty good but it may not be enough to stop Sotir from taking him down. I think Sot will win but I am not 100% confident in it. I bet if he does win though, it will be by a dec. Sot does not have a lot of power in his hands and I doubt he will be submitting J lo. I bet a prop will pop up for it. You might be able to get +odds.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

Joe was coming off a long layoff in the Stout fight and he gassed in the second round. I think J Lo's wrestling is pretty good but it may not be enough to stop Sotir from taking him down. I think Sot will win but I am not 100% confident in it. I bet if he does win though, it will be by a dec. Sot does not have a lot of power in his hands and I doubt he will be submitting J lo. I bet a prop will pop up for it. You might be able to get +odds.

I know Lauzon was coming off a layoff, but it's hard to say how much that affected him. Since he's come back we've gotten two fights: Stout and Reudiger. J-Lo really only has one good UFC win: Jeremy Stephens, who's not really a ground fighter. (I know he beat Pulver--and everyone here knows I support Pulver--but . . . don't make me say it.)

Apparently he also beat Mike Brown way the fuck back in the day, but Brown's never been great at LW and that was 6 years ago.

G-Sot is looking awesome and, with Stevenson and Pellegrino under his belt, he's kind of already surpassed J-Lo in accomplishments in my book.

But to address your point directly about the fight going to decision, yeah, it probably will.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

Yeah J lo hasn't really beat anyone great. He does have some positives though, he finished all his opponents in his wins, he was doing well against against stout until he gassed( We can't say he would have won if he didn't gas but it is possible). Also, he is very young. His last loss before Stout was kflo, when he was only 24 years old. Still I think you are right though, Sotir should be able to win this. I dont think George Sot's wrestling is really that great but it was good enough to steal rounds from Pellegrino and Big Daddy. His striking is ok, mostly I think he does well because his reach is so much longer than the guys he is fighting. Not that I am an expert on striking or anything, but he doesn't seem like any kind of world beater on the feet. Pellegrino almost KO'd him at the end of their fight. Joe and Pellegrino both landed takedowns on him during their fights by the way, just not as many as George landed on them. George's BJJ is very good though.

What I likely see happening is George taking J Loe down to steal rounds. I'm not sure George will have much of any advantage in the standup. Their reach is about the same( J LO is 5' 10'' if i am not mistaken) and he seems about as good as George. I'm sure someone can land a big shot that changes the fight but its not like their is a huge noticable gap.

I think George might be a little thicked and stronger also, which might help with takedowns. But he isn't going to be subbing J LO if he gets him down, he will most likely have to watch out and be careful. Which gives him good reason to stay on top and take it easy, do some damage and maintain position.

So I am going to say George Sotiropolous by takedown, top control decision. I am actually thinking about betting it now. Thanks for getting me thinking.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

Just took Rampage/Machida goes distance @+105

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

So bets so far:

George Sot by Decision
Machida by Decision
Tyson Griffin.
Edson Barboza
Maybe Karo Pariysan
Probably BJ PENN.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

I just bought a new phone that allows me to surf the internet so I can place bets at work on my break. Oh yeah, go gambling. I will be getting the good lines though.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

Ill be on Lyoto for a unit.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

I am looking at Falcao/Harris right now. Falcoa is a wild brawler, old school Wanderlei style- just pure agression. I have never seen him on his back, and I think Harris can probably put him there and slow his pace down. He doesn't look to have the technical grappling to give Harris any problems (like when Amir armbarred him, but he seems to have fixed that). If Harris chooses to stand and bang, he will probably get put down though, Falcao looks like a maniac. Falcoa highlight: http://www.fightlinker.com/maiquel-falc ... o#comments (watch @ 5:45 for some unsportsmanlike conduct). But at -255, i don't know, that is a little steep

I think Munoz gets it done with striking. I agree that his wrestling has not translated. Not all guys have wrestling that will translate to mma (just like some really good bjj guys can't make it work in MMA). He is hard to control though and Simpson is going to have to struggle to get him down, if he can at all. Simpson has shown some power as well, but I just think Munoz will bomb him out at some point. Munoz is going to put it all together IMO and end up being good. Hell, he gave a closer fight to Okami than Nate did.

I am going to be on BJ.

I have Davis in a couple parlays (Faber/Davis and Davis/Maia). I think he will win, but Boetch probably has some value. We saw Davis get stuffed in his last fight... Boetch is the first D1 wrestler to face Davis, and he might be able to stuff a shot or two and land his heavy hands.

I guess I have to concede that Sotiropolous is good. Lauzon is way behind on the ground IMO... if Sot gets him down, he is in trouble. Still not going to bet it though. I don't really see how Joe wins it, tbh. I would like to see Sot/Pelligrino again if anyone has a link

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

So bets so far:

George Sot by Decision
Machida by Decision
Tyson Griffin.
Edson Barboza
Maybe Karo Pariysan
Probably BJ PENN.

Where did you get lines on Griffin and Barboza? Haven't seen those.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

I think Lentz is going to be a tough fight for Griffin. Lentz should actually be the better wrestler. He can strike too... I think that is a really close fight, but the decision prop is where it is at for me. Neither is a finisher and neither is easy to finish. If the line is even remotely decent (say -300), I will probably be on the decision prop here.

Barboza looks like a nightmare, but Elkins is a straight up midwestern wrassler. I don't know that Barboza has had to face a wrestler yet... how is his takedown defense? Elkins does not look intimidating, but he doesn't suck.

Hallma/Karo is really close too. Hallman could play spoiler again here. His hands are at least as good as Karo's, and he has good takedowns, and he fights really smart. I don't think he will let Karo put him on his back. Either guy has value @ +150 IMO