UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

[SPX]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

Ill be on Lyoto for a unit.

I've got Lyoto already and I'm thinking about pushing my be up to 5u. The ONLY way I see Rampage winning this fight is by KO and I am just extremely doubtful about that happening.

My biggest concern is whether Lyoto's gonna be at the top of his mental game or whether his mind is fucked up from the KO.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

I am looking at Falcao/Harris right now. Falcoa is a wild brawler, old school Wanderlei style- just pure agression. I have never seen him on his back, and I think Harris can probably put him there and slow his pace down. He doesn't look to have the technical grappling to give Harris any problems (like when Amir armbarred him, but he seems to have fixed that). If Harris chooses to stand and bang, he will probably get put down though, Falcao looks like a maniac. Falcoa highlight: http://www.fightlinker.com/maiquel-falc ... o#comments (watch @ 5:45 for some unsportsmanlike conduct). But at -255, i don't know, that is a little steep

Interesting highlight. I see what you mean about him being a brawler. Seems like he's all hands, too. I didn't see much in the way of kicks or a clinch game.

I think Harris takes him down and keeps him there. But you're right that he could catch Harris. Miranda rocked Harris with a punch and had him in a little bit of trouble before Harris turned it around. I do agree that the line is a little steep, though.

Side note: Amir did not armbar Harris. He TKOd him and it was a shitty stoppage.

I am going to be on BJ.

I liked BJ as a +135 dog. Don't really like him as a -155 fave.

I guess I have to concede that Sotiropolous is good. Lauzon is way behind on the ground IMO... if Sot gets him down, he is in trouble. Still not going to bet it though. I don't really see how Joe wins it, tbh. I would like to see Sot/Pelligrino again if anyone has a link

Unless Lauzon REALLY DID become a monster between the Stout and Reudiger fights, I think George is better than him everywhere.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

Just took Rampage/Machida goes distance @+105

That will probably cash.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

Interesting highlight. I see what you mean about him being a brawler. Seems like he's all hands, too. I didn't much in the way of kicks or a clinch game.

I think Harris takes him down and keeps him there. But you're right that he could catch Harris. Miranda rocked Harris with a punch and had him in a little bit of trouble before Harris turned it around. I do agree that the line is a little steep, though.

Side note: Amir did not armbar Harris. He TKOd him and it was a shitty stoppage.

I thought I remebered an armbar... well, those two things (Miranda and Amir) are probably enough to scare me out of the bet. Did you see the roid rage at the end of the clip? What a douche. Probably some blood feud, these brazilians and their feuds...

I liked BJ as a +135 dog. Don't really like him as a -155 fave.

The more I think about this, the less I like it. I do think BJ is better. I think his takedown defense has gotten better, Hughes has gotten slower and less powerful... but I am pretty sure Buj just skipped training camp all together for this fight. He said he was just working out of his gym for this one, basically training himself. I really hope he doesn't show up and gas again. I have sort of talked myself out of this one this morning...

Unless Lauzon REALLY DID become a monster between the Stout and Reudiger fights, I think George is better than him everywhere.

I think he just knew he was going to beat Gabe and that Gabe is a gasser, so he went bananas... worst case scenario, Gabe gasses first. He is the same guy, solid ground game, but not spectacular, decent hands, but nothing crazy, decent takedowns. I am not going to bet this fight, because in my heart I still don't think Sotiropolous is very good. I am just waiting for the hammer to fall...


after stewing for a couple hours, I really think my big bet is going to be Griffin/Lentz goes the distance.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

I thought I remebered an armbar... well, those two things (Miranda and Amir) are probably enough to scare me out of the bet. Did you see the roid rage at the end of the clip? What a douche. Probably some blood feud, these brazilians and their feuds...

The Amir fight really doesn't tell us a whole lot. I thought it was a poor stoppage. The ref acted too quickly. Harris thought so, too. Here's his Harris's 9 minute reaction:

http://www.ultimatefighter.com/videos/t ... ald-s-fury

I actually have a profile of Harris in this month's UMMA. He actually says today that Amir did him a favor and that he was not ready for the UFC at that point. He says he's a much better fight now than he was then, and I tend to agree with him.

And yes, I saw Falcao act like a maniac. Dude seems like he might be genuinely crazy.

I think he just knew he was going to beat Gabe and that Gabe is a gasser, so he went bananas... worst case scenario, Gabe gasses first. He is the same guy, solid ground game, but not spectacular, decent hands, but nothing crazy, decent takedowns. I am not going to bet this fight, because in my heart I still don't think Sotiropolous is very good. I am just waiting for the hammer to fall...

I was skeptical about George as well, mostly because of the way he lost to ol' what's-his-name on TUF and the way what's-his-name ended up fairing in the UFC after that.

But it looks like George is one of those fighters who improved dramatically after the show and now he's a legit contender. He's for damn sure doing a hell of a lot better than that season's winner.

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

Rampage winning inside distance is @ +400 and Machida winning decision is +160

[Havis Jr]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

Brown/foster goes the distance? It was just released @ +220, now at +180 5min later...

Brown has gone to distance 2 times, foster hasn't yet. They have been fighting well above and below their own skill levels. They seem to finally be evenly match and combined with the fact that its a loser leaves town situation, maybe the will be conservative and try for the UD. Thoughts?

[Havis Jr]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

Aaron Simpson has a really good chance against munoz. Munoz on paper is the better wrestler, but he trains at blackhouse and hasn't been able to keep those wrestling skills up from what I can tell in his past few fights. Simpson trains with cb/bader so you know his wrestling will be on point. Simpson also has the better hands.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

I agree that Simpson is the better wrestler. But I just don't think he is so much better that he can get and keep Munoz down. Simpson has been working his wrestling consistently since college (his is 37)... I think it is clear he is better than Munoz at this point. Also, Munoz's style of wrestling is not very mma conducive. He shoots into a front headlock position and then either drags out or comes out the back door... great for wrestling, really ahrd to score on a guy who is good there... not great for mma. He doesn't have a really explosive shot.

That said, I don't think Simpson can keep him down. And given what we saw with Leben, there is no reason to think that he will not have to work really hard for his takedowns. I just think that Munoz is going to blast him at some point and wobble him just like Leben and Lawlor did. Munoz packs some power. He also sets a high pace in those scrambles.

I agree that Simpson is live, but I think Munoz will win it personally.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

One thing that may be worth keeping in mind is that all but one of Simpson's wins are by (T)KO.

Also, I had no idea he was that old. I thought he was like 29 or 30.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

Did not realize Elkins was out. How are Lullo's takedowns? That fight just went to bettable for me.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

I think Lentz is going to be a tough fight for Griffin. Lentz should actually be the better wrestler. He can strike too... I think that is a really close fight, but the decision prop is where it is at for me. Neither is a finisher and neither is easy to finish. If the line is even remotely decent (say -300), I will probably be on the decision prop here.

Barboza looks like a nightmare, but Elkins is a straight up midwestern wrassler. I don't know that Barboza has had to face a wrestler yet... how is his takedown defense? Elkins does not look intimidating, but he doesn't suck.

Hallma/Karo is really close too. Hallman could play spoiler again here. His hands are at least as good as Karo's, and he has good takedowns, and he fights really smart. I don't think he will let Karo put him on his back. Either guy has value @ +150 IMO

Why do you think Lentz will cause problems for Griffin? He doesn't seem to be that good to me. He couldn't get Winner down at all, in all his other fights he was taken down and rocked on the feet quite a bit. Tyson seems like he is much faster also.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

Also every guy Lentz has fought has been a non wrestler except Emerson(high school). All of his fights have been close and his opponents have been havent faired well in the ufc. Tyson beat Duane Ludwig, Clay Guida, Thiago Tavares, Gleison Tibau, Marcus Aurelio, Rafael Dos anjos and Hermes Franca. His losses have been to better wrestlers, granted. But Nik Lentz doesn't seem to have that good of wrestling...I don't know. I know Gomi knocked him out but Lentz doesn't have that power.

Don't you think that Griffins quicker hands will make the difference?

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

Yeah, I think Griffin will win with leg kicks and strikes. I just think Lentz is tougher than he gets credit for, and he can grapple and clinch pretty well. I think Winner would outstrike Griffin, and he couldn't put Lentz away... I think Griffin will win each round, but Lentz will make it ugly the whole way. He just seems to have a way of making a fight ugly.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 123 - Machida/Rampage

But Lentz makes fights ugly with guys he should be able to do that with. I seriously doubt he is able to just push Tyson up against the cage and hold him there, which is pretty much the only way I see him winning. Tyson is very hard to hold on to and control. He should really be able to pretty much easily beat Lentz IMO.

I was actually hoping that we get Griffin @ -170 or better.