Strikeforce Dallas June 18th

[MMA_scientist]

kelly is pretty nuts. If I read it correctly your bankroll is supposed to be your net-worth. Imagine making a bet on money your backing up with your house, car or credit lines. I guess pro's do it everyday but it takes some serious balls and belief in your edge.

I believe I could make a living at this today, if only I were ballsy enough to cash out my savings and just go full on degenerate. Actually, I am. But my wife does not have that same faith in my gambling ability. So I have to convince her by building my stack from nothing... and then going full on degenerate.

[Thewisemann]

Yea, scientist, you have me seriously thinking of hedging Ubereem, I got him at -215.

[flyinggogoplata]

I believe I could make a living at this today, if only I were ballsy enough to cash out my savings and just go full on degenerate. Actually, I am. But my wife does not have that same faith in my gambling ability. So I have to convince her by building my stack from nothing... and then going full on degenerate.

I know it means nothing coming from me, but I fully support you going full degen.

[SPX]

I don't really believe that I can quantify the edge to a precise enough degree to make confident bets on a kelly style system.

I think this is the real problem. If you knew for a mathematical fact exactly what the edge is, then full kelly would probably be the most profitable way to go. But at the end of the day, we're just guessing.

[MMA_scientist]

Yea, scientist, you have me seriously thinking of hedging Ubereem, I got him at -215.

Don't do it. I am just excited Werdum wore his gi. Seriously, don't listen to me, Werdum is one of my fave HW's and I always say he is going to win.

[SPX]

Werdum usually DOES win . . . Except when this happens. . .

[flyinggogoplata]

I think this is the real problem. If you knew for a mathematical fact exactly what the edge is, then full kelly would probably be the most profitable way to go. But at the end of the day, we're just guessing.

Tracking your edge just takes time. Start a spreadsheet put the odds you bet at then the odds at the closing line. Over a thousand plays you can see your edge pretty clearly. If you routinely beat the closing line you're a winning gambler.

[SPX]

Tracking your edge just takes time. Start a spreadsheet put the odds you bet at then the odds at the closing line. Over a thousand plays you can see your edge pretty clearly. If you routinely beat the closing line you're a winning gambler.

How do you really say, though, that this guy has a 65% chance of winning instead of a 62% chance? It's not like the fight result confirms that or anything.

[MMA_scientist]

Tracking your edge just takes time. Start a spreadsheet put the odds you bet at then the odds at the closing line. Over a thousand plays you can see your edge pretty clearly. If you routinely beat the closing line you're a winning gambler.

right, you can calculate your overall edge, which I have done with the help of svino a few times. There is a thread around here somewhere that has the forumla in it.

But that is different than calculating your edge on a specific fight. Say I set my line at -115 for Werdum, and he opens at +220... I better be pretty damn confident in that -115 to go out and make a big bet based on the value. SPX and I see eye to eye on this, it is a myth to say you can precisely predict the outcome of a fight to within a few percentages. I generally think in like 20% groupings personally.

[flyinggogoplata]

How do you really say, though, that this guy has a 65% chance of winning instead of a 62% chance? It's not like the fight result confirms that or anything.

You would need to create a math model to get lines that close.

[SPX]

I generally think in like 20% groupings personally.

That's pretty much me, too. I do try to set percentages, but really it's more like I put them into various categories, like:

Not going to win (barring some crazy fluke shit)
Might win, but doubtful
Solid chance to win, close fight
Will probably win, close fight
Should win
Will definitely win (barring some crazy fluke shit)

[Luke]

I think this is the real problem. If you knew for a mathematical fact exactly what the edge is, then full kelly would probably be the most profitable way to go. But at the end of the day, we're just guessing.

I don't think you can apply Kelly to MMA or boxing because you never really know your exact edge in a fight is .
In football after running my numbers I can predict my exact adv (using my system)against the point spread and convert those points in my adv to a percent that gives me my exact edge .In MMA/boxing I wouldnt even know where to start to figure it out

[Luke]

If you routinely beat the closing line you're a winning gambler.

What if you bet all dogs, a lot of the time the closing line is the best line you'll see on the dog

[MMA_scientist]

That's pretty much me, too. I do try to set percentages, but really it's more like I put them into various categories, like:

Not going to win (barring some crazy fluke shit)
Might win, but doubtful
Solid chance to win, close fight
Will probably win, close fight
Should win
Will definitely win (barring some crazy fluke shit)

pretty much what I do. The hard thing about it is that you never get confirmation. You are never really right and you are never really wrong. If you set your line at -400, the other guy is still supposed to win 20% of the time... so when you lose, well yeah, he had a 20% chance. You really never get confirmation that you were correct on your line.

I just try to think, at this moment in space and time with all the information that we have, what is going to happen? Then I have confidence level similar to your scale, and then I match up the line with my confidence level, and pull the trigger.

There are some things, at this moment in space and time, that I do not think will happen, period, 0%- like Rogers submitting Barnett or Daley submitting Diaz. Just is not going to happen. Even if Barnett takes a dive, Rogers won't even think about trying to submit him, it is almost risk free money.

[flyinggogoplata]

right, you can calculate your overall edge, which I have done with the help of svino a few times. There is a thread around here somewhere that has the formula in it.

But that is different than calculating your edge on a specific fight. Say I set my line at -115 for Werdum, and he opens at +220... I better be pretty damn confident in that -115 to go out and make a big bet based on the value. SPX and I see eye to eye on this, it is a myth to say you can precisely predict the outcome of a fight to within a few percentages. I generally think in like 20% groupings personally.

It's not a myth for most sports because math models can be very good, however you're probably right about mma in particular simply because a lack of any databases existing.

However there is no need to predict any fight to within a few percentages. If you see any value on a opening line you might as well max bet it with the limits being so low. Pinnacle's head linesman once proposed releasing every fight at pick em with low limits of course. Then when the line is banged into shape by the sharps the are limits upped.