UFC 134 Rio de Janeiro Aug 27th

[mike]

i see. i tried the alert thing at bfo too but for some reason they never alert me lol but i check the site on tues for lines too. LOl i was just gonna do this betting thing for fun but i ended up spending alot more time on it. As for this card, I only like the Barboza bet but I think there's a very good chance Johnny Eduardo will beat Assuncao. I am still waiting to see if his odd gets better b4 I place a bet on him.

[SPX]

Fuckin' PP.

[MMA_scientist]

I am giving in and betting Schaub. I just don't think Nog has the goods anymore. I always make the same mistake of thinking the vets are going to pull it out somehow, and that is how I lose many of my bets. He just is not going to win.

[SPX]

I have followed the same path, Scientist.

I too have a tendency to think the old guys will find a way to pull it out, but this time I will not be fooled.

inb4Nogbysub

[poopoo333]

Since UFC 128:

Schaub beat Cro Cop
Jones beat Shogun
Davis beat Lil Nog
Machida beat Couture (not sure if this counts since Machida really isn't an up and comer)
Rory MacDonald beat Diaz (also not sure if this counts, but it was a prospect vs vet type of deal)
Story beat Alves
Mighty Mouse beat Torres

The only fights where the more well known "vet" beat the up and comer prospect since then was Guida over Pettis, Florian over Nunes, and Tito over Bader..oh and Ludwig over Amir

[SPX]

Good stuff there PP, although I think that in this sense we are more speaking of guys who are clearly at the end of their career and who have been losing convincingly in their last few fights.

Crocop and Couture certainly fall into that category, but guys like Torres and Guida do not.

[Ludo]

I honestly don't think Nogeuira can win this fight without a double leg and like an instant transition into half guard or better. He's not outstriking Schaub, and he's definitely not going to be able to sit in Schaubs guard or hold Brendan in his own. Minotauro has a path to victory here bit I just don't think it's very viable given Schaubs huge speed, striking, and sprawling abilities. It would be different if he liked to sit inside and punch but he stays outside for the most part and snipes. Like I said before this is probably going to look exactly like the Gonzaga fight where Schaub just makes Minotauro follow him around until the decision or until he puts Nogueira down for the night.

[Vandelay]

This guy got knocked out by roy nelson, outstruck gonzaga, and had to push cro cop against the fence for the majority of their fight. Lets not annoint put him in the same class as overeem just yet.

[Ludo]

Since UFC 128:

Schaub beat Cro Cop
Jones beat Shogun
Davis beat Lil Nog
Machida beat Couture (not sure if this counts since Machida really isn't an up and comer)
Rory MacDonald beat Diaz (also not sure if this counts, but it was a prospect vs vet type of deal)
Story beat Alves
Mighty Mouse beat Torres

The only fights where the more well known "vet" beat the up and comer prospect since then was Guida over Pettis, Florian over Nunes, and Tito over Bader..oh and Ludwig over Amir

Good points, but like you I wouldn't consider Machida an up and comer since he was Champion already. I also wouldn't consider Guida a true veteran just because he's still improving and adding new facets to his game. Most of the time "veterans" have already peaked and are in the journeymen kind of roles. Being fed to up and comers with the intention of gaging how good the new fighter actually is, or relegated to fan fights rather than meaningful title contention type fights. When I think Veteran I think Matt Hughes types of guys but he's a bit of an extreme example at this point.

I think we are in the middle of a period where the guys who were great five and six years ago are starting to fade and the new crop of fighters is getting more well rounded every day. We'll start seeing alot of former fixtures in the sport getting snuffed out by relatively new talent. These guys now are total animals and whats better is there are far more places to train now. You can go to multiple camps and train with some of the best in the world almost anywhere with techniques designed for MMA.

[Ludo]

This guy got knocked out by roy nelson, outstruck gonzaga, and had to push cro cop against the fence for the majority of their fight. Lets not annoint put him in the same class as overeem just yet.

I don't really think the Nelson thing was a total detriment. The reason Nelson was able to do what he did to Schaub was the threat of the takedown. Just like how Werdum was able to light Overeem up a few times. The constant threat of a takedown creates openings up top. Nelson likes to use that bully style where he'll follow you around trying to close the distance for a clinch or a single leg and after a few of those your wary, the next time he comes in it's with an overhand right.

The Gonzaga fight was actually great performance. Gonzaga hasn't exactly been a total bust standing up. He did break Cro Cop and almost knock Carwin out.

As far as Cro Cop goes that was a tough stylistic fight for Schaub and so he had to impliment some gameplanning instead of just sitting outside like he prefers. The problem there is Cro Cop is also an outside fighter, and a dangerous one at that. If you allow Mirko to sit on the outside all night your going to be eating kicks for as long as your able to keep standing or until the final bell rings.

I don't think anyone is acting like Schaub is the next Overeem or anything. But he is clearly a very quick fighter and has crisp hands with more than enough power to get the job done.

[Ludo]

I think it's less that we're building Schaub up and more that we're being realistic about Nogueira's deterioration as a durable fighter after all these years of brutal wars he's taken more damage than thought possible in. It's not totally unfeasible that Minotauro can drag Schaub down and lock up a submission that Schaub can't get out of. But it's much more likely that Minotauro just isn't the zombie he used to be anymore and can't take the kind of beating he used to be able to without batting an eye.

[sbjj]

This guy got knocked out by roy nelson, outstruck gonzaga, and had to push cro cop against the fence for the majority of their fight. Lets not annoint put him in the same class as overeem just yet.

Mir had to push CC against the cage far more than Schaub did. It is not like CC can not still bang a bit with someone just willing to stand with him. And CC still has a better chin than Nog IMO.

I think this ends pretty bad for Nog.

[SPX]

I wonder what the scientific explanation is for a fighter wearing down like that. . .

Obviously it happens, but why?

[Ludo]

Joe Rogan out of UFC134, Kenny Florian steps in replace him

[Ludo]

I wonder what the scientific explanation is for a fighter wearing down like that. . .

Obviously it happens, but why?

I think it's like any other recurring injury. If you pop your shoulder out once it's more likely to happen again, and just like that if your knocked the fuck out after suffering alot of brain trauma your more likely to have it done again.