UFC 134 Rio de Janeiro Aug 27th

[edman5555]

Yeah I didnt think about it until a second ago but Sivers attacks are much better at range. Barboza is probably a real killer in any type of clinch situation. If pearson tries any type of wrestling it is going to have to be a shot. If he tries to clinch and push up against the fence he should most likely get kneed to fucking hell? Wouldn't you think?

Scratch some of what I said, I just re read the Siver-Pearson play by play and it actually sounds like Pearson outstruck him.

[mike]

pearson did outstruck silver because silver is an outside striker. pearson closed the gap and bullied silver. he doesnt have finishing power though. against barboza, he will get picked apart whether its outside or inside striking. barboza is very fast very explosive and very strong. pearson will get a beating in this one.

[edman5555]

Ok nvrmind. Read the play by play. It looks liek Pearson outstruck Siver. He also did well striking against Winner. The Winner-Pearson fight had a lot of clinching up against the cage walls as well. It was really close there, nobody had a big edge in that part. Winner is actually good at that though. Lentz had him up against the wall for the entire fight and could not get him down. On the other hand, Winner could not get away from him but thats not bad for a brit. Tough call. I still have to favor Barboza in this one but I am not sure by how much..

[edman5555]

pearson did outstruck silver because silver is an outside striker. pearson closed the gap and bullied silver. he doesnt have finishing power though. against barboza, he will get picked apart whether its outside or inside striking. barboza is very fast very explosive and very strong. pearson will get a beating in this one.

Yeah good point. He was striking inside with winner too. That will work very poorly against Barboza.

[edman5555]

David Mitchell is a purple belt in brazilian jiu jitsu under Dave Terrell. I don't think he should stand much of a chance against Paulo Thiago.

[edman5555]

So ranking bets here, Paulo thiago is probably the best bet..

yuri Alcantra looks pretty good. His opponent is Felipe Arantes. I would think he is going to steamroll this guy. Arantes record is filled with a lot of cans. Quite a few guys with losing records or less than a couple of fights. He is also a replacement for the replacement for mackens semez. I will add Alcantra to my bets.

[edman5555]

I also thinking Dan Miller might be a good bet. He will probably be a dog too.

so bets so far are most likely:

Paulo Thiago
Yuri Alcantra
Edson Barboza
Thiago Tavares
Dan miller

[poopoo333]

I got Barboza @ -185. I think the current line sucks though. I think Pearson's only way to win is by decision, so @ +400 something I can always hedge my bet with Pearson by decision. I really think Barboza can sway the judges with his flashy kicks like he did with this to seal the 3rd round against Njokuani:



Njokuani proved in that fight that he is a legit striker in MMA, as well as literally fucking Andre Winner in the ass @ UFC 132. That made Barboza's win that much better, especially with his injuries.

Okami's offensive wrestling might be overrated from the Marquardt fight, Marquardt actually out wrestled Okami in that fight imo. Marquardt ended up on his back from losing position and going for guillotines. I think Okami is going to try and "take the fight" to Silva and possibly get in his face like Sonnen did with some big straight punches like he threw against Linhares and against Marquardt in the 3rd round of that fight. That being said...Silva should win.
This card is either going to be great for me or I will crash and burn.

David Mitchell showed some great defensive grappling against Waldburger. That fight is awesome, it is one of my favorite fights, it was really entertaining. Paulo Thiago is good, but imo he was WAY overrated after beating Swick. He was like -500 against Kampmann and got dominated in the grappling department. I think Thiago will win, but I wouldn't bet it because that shit is gonna be worse than -400.

Svino...Why Nedkov? I originally (and still do) think Cane should win but I may be basing that too much off of his fight with Eliot Marshall.

Everybody knows my thoughts on Forrest Griffin/Shogun Rua and nobody agrees with me but it's ok.

Everybody also knows my thoughts on Schaub/Big Nog

Tavares > Fisher imo, but it will be close. Tavares has the better hands, T3D, grappling, etc.

Yves Jabouin was overvalued @ UFC 129 because of that war with Mark Hominick in his last fight, I am hoping he is overvalued here again as well. Loveland looked real good against Benavidez.

I think Palhares will get tired and Miller will avoid subs and be on top and grind out the decision if he doesn't get subbed early.

As for the 3 other fights consisting of Brazilians I know nothing about (besides Assuncao).....no thoughts

[edman5555]

Waldburger beat Mitchell three rounds to zip didn't he? Paulo is a solid grappler with some power in his hands. He also has a lot more experience. He dropped Swick and Koscheck, beat Volkmann pretty soundly. He lost pretty convincingly to Kampmann but Kamp is really good. I think Paulo can do well against a guy with little standup. (I just assume it is little standup due to the fact he has all sub wins). Do you have a link to the Waldburger/Mitchell fight?

Thiago is pretty solid at stopping takedowns, if all Mitchell has is a ground game he is probably fucked.

[poopoo333]

http://livefightclub.com/tj-waldburger-vs-david-mitchell

Just have to sign up

[Svino]

Svino...Why Nedkov? I originally (and still do) think Cane should win but I may be basing that too much off of his fight with Eliot Marshall.

Well, I haven't seen the line yet. But Nedkov was an underdog to Cantwell before that fight broke down, so I am guessing he will be a big dog to Cane.

I do think Cane is overrated and I've had success betting against him in the past.

As for Nedkov, I don't think he is anything too special. His standup is basically slow but aggressive and wild punching, with knees in the clinch. He is a bit reminiscent of Hamill. His wrestling is not elite, but I like how he goes to it regularly. He has OK takedowns and GnP, and a stifling clinch style that could adapt well to the cage and allow him to beat some better fighters.

[mike]

pp, does bmaker have live betting for the undercard fights? I remember they did before but they didnt have it for the last versus card.

[SPX]

I got Barboza @ -185. I think the current line sucks though. I think Pearson's only way to win is by decision, so @ +400 something I can always hedge my bet with Pearson by decision. I really think Barboza can sway the judges with his flashy kicks like he did with this to seal the 3rd round against Njokuani:



Njokuani proved in that fight that he is a legit striker in MMA, as well as literally fucking Andre Winner in the ass @ UFC 132. That made Barboza's win that much better, especially with his injuries.

Okami's offensive wrestling might be overrated from the Marquardt fight, Marquardt actually out wrestled Okami in that fight imo. Marquardt ended up on his back from losing position and going for guillotines. I think Okami is going to try and "take the fight" to Silva and possibly get in his face like Sonnen did with some big straight punches like he threw against Linhares and against Marquardt in the 3rd round of that fight. That being said...Silva should win.
This card is either going to be great for me or I will crash and burn.

David Mitchell showed some great defensive grappling against Waldburger. That fight is awesome, it is one of my favorite fights, it was really entertaining. Paulo Thiago is good, but imo he was WAY overrated after beating Swick. He was like -500 against Kampmann and got dominated in the grappling department. I think Thiago will win, but I wouldn't bet it because that shit is gonna be worse than -400.

Svino...Why Nedkov? I originally (and still do) think Cane should win but I may be basing that too much off of his fight with Eliot Marshall.

Everybody knows my thoughts on Forrest Griffin/Shogun Rua and nobody agrees with me but it's ok.

Everybody also knows my thoughts on Schaub/Big Nog

Tavares > Fisher imo, but it will be close. Tavares has the better hands, T3D, grappling, etc.

Yves Jabouin was overvalued @ UFC 129 because of that war with Mark Hominick in his last fight, I am hoping he is overvalued here again as well. Loveland looked real good against Benavidez.

I think Palhares will get tired and Miller will avoid subs and be on top and grind out the decision if he doesn't get subbed early.

As for the 3 other fights consisting of Brazilians I know nothing about (besides Assuncao).....no thoughts

This shall be heretofore known forevermore as "PP's Manifesto."

[mike]

Yves Jabouin was overvalued @ UFC 129 because of that war with Mark Hominick in his last fight, I am hoping he is overvalued here again as well. Loveland looked real good against Benavidez.

How good is Loveland's td though? If he can't take Jabouin down, he will lose in the striking.

[Mr. IWS]

It sounds like you are really confident? Can you break it all down for us? Seriously..I would like to be in the know.

First off, I love the Revenge factor as well as Silva fighting in Brazil.

On the feet, obviously the huge advantage goes to Silva. Okami has never seen a striker this good, especially over the last few years, most of the guys he has fought have been predominatly grappler heavy type fighters.

If it turns into a wrestling/grappling match, I think If Okami can even get close enough to get Anderson down, Silva is pretty slick on the ground, and I wouldn’t be surprised if Okami got subbed there or swept. If Okami is going to try to wall and stall Silva, that puts him in danger of being clinched fucked a la Rich Franklin or Silva escaping and lighting Okami up during the standup.

In my opinion, where ever this fight goes, Okami is in danger of being stopped at any moment. I think Okami’s only out is to win a boring decision. Silva has multiple outs to win this one.

I know Okami trains with team TRT now but looking at his body of work, I don’t think he is better than Chael, and a roided up Chael couldn’t finish Anderson with a busted up rib and shitty cardio. I don’t see how a healthy Silva, fighting in his home country doesn’t rape this mutherfucker.