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On Friday the Free play is on the over in the Angels at Tigers game. Rotation numbers 917/918 at 9:05 eastern. This game fits a nice system that plays to the over for home favorites off a home favored loss at -140 or higher vs an opponent who was a road favorite of -140 or more. LA. has J. Weaver going and he has gone over in 8 of 11 starts. In his last game here he went just 4 innings allowing 4 runs on 7 hits before getting yanked. Verlander has not dominated the Angels like he has other teams and has a 4.44 era vs LA.. The Angels have gone over in 7 of 10 games vs losing teams in the second half and have a terrible 5.13 road bullpen era. Take the over here tonight. On Friday I have the 6* MLB Total of the Year backed with a 17-0 MLB Totals system that averages 13.5 runs per game long term. I also have a 90% System side to complete the card. Jump on and start the weekend off right. For the free play go over the total in the LA at Detroit game.
triple-dime bet 913 SDP / 914 ARI Over 9.5 Bodog
Analysis: The San Diego Padres and the Arizona Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 RUNS is the TRIPLE STAR Play of the Day for Friday, August 6th!
I really, really like this total. I liked San Diego yesterday, and they got the hard earned win. Now they are in a classic letdown spot, having to play in a place they traditionally struggle in after competing with their rival. Tough spot here, and the oddsmakers know this.
That's why this line opened so low, and that's why this total came out so HIGH. This is a correlated parlay with Arizona and the OVER in reality. The reason we aren't taking Arizona though is because this Padres team has showed so much fight this year it's unbelievable. In the late innings, i know they will be scrapping to get some runs across. I also can't say that i completely trust this Arizona bullpen either, especially against this scrappy San Diego team.
Here's how i think this game will play out.
Jon Garland is going to get beat up. It's just going to happen. There's no way this line would be this low, and getting lower, if Garland wasn't go†ing to give up his share. Oddsmakers are taking a fierce stance with the Diamondbacks tonight. Arizona just can't get involved in a low scoring bullpen type game with the Padres. That's the least likely way Arizona would win this game.
Instead, i look for the Diamondbacks to do what they do best, hit well at home. Garland isn't anything special in Arizona, and he won't be tonight either. I think Arizona gets ahead early thanks to their offense, and then the Padres won't be able to use their premium bullpen relief, as they will save that for later in the series. As much as i follow San Diego, i know they aren't as strong in Game 1's of series for exactly what i just said.
With San Diego playing from behind, i think their offense is going to have to plate some runs. Heading to Arizona, you can be certain the coaching staff has explained to their offense how important it is they do well this weekend. San Diego simply struggles in Arizona.
This line is at 9.5. Let's be real, how many Padres totals do you see at 9.5? It just doesn't happen very often. One of the most popular wagers tonight is the UNDER in this very game. Yet, this line hasn't budged, and certainly hasn't moved anywhere close to a flat 9. With the heavy action coming in on this UNDER, the fact this total isn't moving should tell you something.
Oddsmakers really tipped their hand here. The reason this play is a TRIPLE STAR is because i've really started to see Padres games well again. I knew this game was a trap before the line ever came out. The making of this line only makes this play stronger. The ensuing line movement has officially made this a big play. Let's cash it! The Padres and the Diamondbacks OVER 9.5 RUNS tonight is the 3 UNIT TRIPLE STAR Play of the Day!
Favoring: EDMONTON on the money line. Play On - Home teams vs. the money line (EDMONTON) - excellent offensive team (>=7.4 YPP) against a team with a terrible defense (>=7.4 YPP), after gaining 8.1 or more yards/play in their previous game
(23-3 since 1996.) (88.5%, +22.2 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +1 units).
Favoring: EDMONTON on the money line. Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (EDMONTON) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, after the first month of the season
(58-10 since 1996.) (85.3%, +42.1 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).
Favoring: BRITISH COLUMBIA on the money line. Play On - Any team vs the money line (BRITISH COLUMBIA) - off a close loss by 7 points or less to a division rival, in weeks 5 through 9
(32-14 since 1996.) (69.6%, +32.5 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).
Favoring: EDMONTON on the money line. Play On - Home teams vs. the money line (EDMONTON) - after playing a game at home, after the first month of the season
(128-50 since 1996.) (71.9%, +74.2 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0 +2 units).
Favoring: MONTREAL on the money line. Play On - Home teams vs. the money line (MONTREAL) - after playing a game at home, after the first month of the season
(128-50 since 1996.) (71.9%, +74.2 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (2-0 +2 units).
Favoring: EDMONTON on the money line. Play On - Any team vs the money line (EDMONTON) - excellent offensive team (>=7.4 YPP) against a team with a terrible defense (>=7.4 YPP), after gaining 8.1 or more yards/play in their previous game
(33-8 since 1996.) (80.5%, +27.2 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +1 units).
Favoring: BRITISH COLUMBIA on the money line. Play On - Any team vs the money line (BRITISH COLUMBIA) - after failing to cover the spread in 3 out of their last 4 games, a terrible team (<=25%) playing a team with a winning record
(23-18 since 1996.) (56.1%, +34.8 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1 -1 units).
Favoring: EDMONTON on the money line. Play On - Home teams vs. the money line (EDMONTON) - excellent offensive team (>=7.4 YPP) against a team with a terrible defense (>=7.4 YPP), after gaining 7.6 or more yards/play in their previous game
(27-5 since 1996.) (84.4%, +22.9 units. Rating*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +1 units).
Favoring: EDMONTON on the money line. Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (EDMONTON) - after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in non-conference games
(34-4 since 1996.) (89.5%, +28.2 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-0 0 units).
Favoring: MONTREAL on the money line. Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (SASKATCHEWAN) - excellent rushing team - averaging 150 or more rushing yards/game
(28-10 since 1996.) (73.7%, +26.7 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +1 units).
Favoring: HAMILTON on the money line. Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (WINNIPEG) - after 2 or more consecutive wins against the spread, in weeks 5 through 9
(48-23 since 1996.) (67.6%, +37.7 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +1 units).
Favoring: TORONTO on the money line. Play On - Road teams vs. the money line (TORONTO) - with a poor defense - allowing 385 or more total yards/game, after gaining 275 or less total yards in their previous game
(26-18 since 1996.) (59.1%, +32.9 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-1 -1.3 units).
avoring: EDMONTON on the money line. Play On - Any team vs the money line (EDMONTON) - excellent offensive team (>=7.4 YPP) against a team with a terrible defense (>=7.4 YPP), after gaining 7.6 or more yards/play in their previous game
(40-13 since 1996.) (75.5%, +29.8 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (1-0 +1 units).
Favoring: TORONTO on the money line. Play On - Road underdogs vs. the money line (TORONTO) - off a loss against a division rival, in the first half of the season
(19-12 over the last 5 seasons.) (61.3%, +27.9 units. Rating=*)
The situation's record this season is: (0-2 -2 units).
4 UNIT Under 7 Los Angeles Angels vs. Detroit Tigers
4 UNIT Over 162.5 Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever
4 UNIT San Antonio Silver Stars +10 over Phoenix Mercury
4 UNIT Tulsa Shock +8 over the Los Angeles Sparks
Matt Garza followed up his no hitter with a solid effort versus the Yankees and it's safe to say the Rays' right-hander has found his form. Garza struck out nine and walked just won in 7 innings of work. Garza’s K/BB ratio continues to head in the right direction: 2.09/2.17/2.39/2.52 which assists in what has been a declining GB percentage: 47.7%/41.7%/39.7%/34.5%.
After an impressive April and May (3.55 and 3.89 ERAs, respectively), Brett Cecil struggled in June but returned to form in July. Cecil’s overall numbers remain significantly better than his rookie season and while he is winless in his last three starts he's limited the big hit recording a 2.79 ERA trumps with a middling K ratio of 12/9. Cecil has lowered his BB/9 from 3.66 to 2.72 and HR/9 from 1.64 to just 0.84 in 86 innings of work this year and decreased his FIP from 5.37 to just 3.75 to go along with a 1.20 WHIP (compared to 1.65 in ’09).
Tampa Bay is 14-3 to the UNDER when facing a team with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games.
After overtaking the Yankees and move to the top of the AL East, the Rays have dropped consecutive games to fall back into second place. Consistency on offense has been an issue since the injury to Carlos Pena and it remains tonight against a tough road test against a capable southpaw.
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