UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

I actually think kongo did end up taking cain down....third round maybe

[Luke]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

I actually think kongo did end up taking cain down....third round maybe

I dont remember I'd have to watch it . I remember having a huge bet on Cain in that fight and freaking out at the beginning of every round when Cain would get rocked

[poopoo333]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Just read the play by play...kongo tried to take cain down twice but ended up getting his back taken instead.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

He got him down in a scramble once and cain got right back up. Don't read to much into it, cain took him down repeatidly the entire fight.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Luke,

I think Cain will force a stand up fight and out box him, maybe stuf some shots and end up on top in a front headlock postition some. Maybe some scrambles, a few takedowns from Brock, but I don't think the size will make a difference. Cain has spent his adult life wrestling heavyweights. There are 2 types of HW wrestlers, and the smaller ones know how to deal with the bigger guys. If Cain gets down, I think he will be standing up before he hits the mat.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Cain should win. I think he can finish Brock. He will wear him out.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

I think I will probably be on Cheick Kongo also.

[edman5555]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

which is not on this ufc

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 121

This will be at least a 20 unit play for me. This is one of those 3 to 5 fights a year that I will hit very hard.

srsly? 20u? I thought you were knocking UKdonkbet (via SPX) because he bet like 30u on a fight, what gives?

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 121

This will be at least a 20 unit play for me. This is one of those 3 to 5 fights a year that I will hit very hard.

srsly? 20u? I thought you were knocking UKdonkbet (via SPX) because he bet like 30u on a fight, what gives?

BIG DIFFERENCE. 30 unit bet for a 5 unit payoff vs. 20 Unit bet for a 30 unit payoff. Once again, it is risk-reward.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Yeah, but unless you set your own line on Cain at like -400, that is a lot more risk than 30u on something that is 90% to win.

I mean, I like Cain too, but I have to give Brock at least a 40% chance to win. There is value to Cain, but betting 1/5 of your bankroll seems sort of maniacal to me.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Yeah, but unless you set your own line on Cain at like -400, that is a lot more risk than 30u on something that is 90% to win.

I mean, I like Cain too, but I have to give Brock at least a 40% chance to win. There is value to Cain, but betting 1/5 of your bankroll seems sort of maniacal to me.

Not even close to 1/5 of my bankroll. But I just disagree with your whole philosophy. You seem to assume that big favorites have a 90% chance to win, I do not. I look at it simply as risking alot of money to win a little. that kind of thinking IMO is flawed.

Assuming you have a 100 unit bankroll. For some reason you have the mindset that betting 30% of your bankroll for a 5% return makes more sense than betting 20% of your bankroll for a 30% return. I think you just feel better because the LINE is telling you that you are making a safer bet. I bet over 50 units on GSP in his second fight with Hughes. I had the same conversation with others about that fight that I am having with you.

People could just not believe I was betting that much on the dog. they would tell me to just bet it on a heavy fave. for a sure thing. So most people thought I should drop 10K down on some fave. to win 2K, instead of 10K on a slight dog to win 12K. i just do not look at it that way.


BTW, i think Brock would be lucky, very lucky, to have a 40% chance to win.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

sbjj... I don't think betting 20% on any fight is a good idea. I don't think there is a difference between doing it on a fave or dog though. The issue is not THE LINE, the issue is YOUR LINE. If your line is -400 and the actual line is -250, I would bet the shit out of that. Same thing with this one. If you think Cain should be more than -150 (60%) and he is currently at +135 (40%), that needs to bet and bet big. Similarly, if a fighter is at -300 (75%) and you think he should be -900 (90%) then you also need to bet the shit out of that...

So it is not that I think a favorite is automatically 90% to win. The issue is when the favorite is more likely to win that the line indicates. There is no difference between betting 30 to win 5 and 20 to win 30 if the value is there, because the risk of loss (in your specific assessment) is the same.

In any event, if you are not using a 100u bankroll, then this is all moot. I was just questioning the wisdom of betting 1/5 of your bankroll on one fight, which you are not doing.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

sbjj... I don't think betting 20% on any fight is a good idea. I don't think there is a difference between doing it on a fave or dog though. The issue is not THE LINE, the issue is YOUR LINE. If your line is -400 and the actual line is -250, I would bet the shit out of that. Same thing with this one. If you think Cain should be more than -150 (60%) and he is currently at +135 (40%), that needs to bet and bet big. Similarly, if a fighter is at -300 (75%) and you think he should be -900 (90%) then you also need to bet the shit out of that...

So it is not that I think a favorite is automatically 90% to win. The issue is when the favorite is more likely to win that the line indicates. There is no difference between betting 30 to win 5 and 20 to win 30 if the value is there, because the risk of loss (in your specific assessment) is the same.

In any event, if you are not using a 100u bankroll, then this is all moot. I was just questioning the wisdom of betting 1/5 of your bankroll on one fight, which you are not doing.

Our difference in thining is this Scientists. You spend alot of time in your head trying to figure out value. I take a simpler approach with fundamental rules. I WILL NOT bet a -500 fighter even if I think he has great value because I am still risking to much for what my possible return will be. This is something i think every good capper should do...set simple rules and abide by them. They are not set rules if you EVER have an exception for them.

Do me a favor, come on here the next time you see a -300 guy that you believe should be -900. I think I might have to wait awhile on that one. Yet we have 2 fights coming up which IMO have GREAT value...Cain and BJ.

Bottom line, we have two different mindsets. You will bet ANY fight as long as you see value. While I have more set rules that I must try to abide by. I firmly believe that my rules have kept me from losing alot of money.

Also, when you say bet a fight hard or bet the shit out of it. Do you bet the -300 or higher fighter the same as the +150 fighter? if you see the same value structure in a -300 fighter and a+150 fighter...do you bet the same units. I would guess you bet more on the -300 fighter because he is more expensive. Which can lead to bigger overall losses. When i all actuality, if you are willing to drop 6 units on a -300 guy, you should be willing to do the same with the +150 guy.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Our difference in thining is this Scientists. You spend alot of time in your head trying to figure out value. I take a simpler approach with fundamental rules. I WILL NOT bet a -500 fighter even if I think he has great value because I am still risking to much for what my possible return will be. This is something i think every good capper should do...set simple rules and abide by them. They are not set rules if you EVER have an exception for them.

That's fine. That's YOUR rule. Others abide by the simple rule of betting fights that have a ton of value.

Do me a favor, come on here the next time you see a -300 guy that you believe should be -900.

That would be hard to do. But I think there are a lot of -500 fights that should be -900. GSP/Hardy probably falls into that range. I wouldn't be surprised if Hardy only lands that necessary KO shot once in 20 fights, much less 10.

You will bet ANY fight as long as you see value.

That's not how he bets at all. I've seen him pass up plenty of bets that he felt had value, but was unsure about.

I firmly believe that my rules have kept me from losing alot of money.

Or perhaps they've kept you from winning a lot of money. That is, if you're actually a good capper.