UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

[Ludo]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Do you know anyone who bets Heavy Faves only(and comes out ahead). Because I know plenty of dudes who bet slight faves, even, and dogs and make money. But I know no one who bets heavy faves only. I used to know a few dudes who did that, but they no longer even bet fights anymore.

I don't know anyone who bets only heavy favorites. I think that anyone with any maturity in this game would realize that that's a very poor strategy . . . not because it can't work, but because you're not maximizing profits because you're missing out on so many other opportunities.

I think that anyone who says "I only bet dogs" or "I only bet faves" or anything else that limits your options is not playing optimally.

But one more time to both you and Scientist. WHY, in all other sports, do no pros consistantly bet these heavy lines(sure thing) bets? And the really good boxing cappers do not bet long lines either. MMA is new, and has brought in a whole new breed of bettor, but i think in time, it will be just like the rest of sports betting.

I have no idea about other sports. I only bet MMA. But I will say that when it comes to MMA, there are times when--if you really want to make money--you have to make the choice to not be a pussy.

LOL, funny that coming from you to me. I guess I am that pussy that quit my job at the age of 26 to bet boxing and MMA for a living.

So you quit your job at the age of 26 to bet MMA and Boxing and so you could flaunt it on internet message boards with some sort of holier than thou complex while switching back and forth between that and playing the victim? Interesting... But you know, I quit My job at the age of 26 to bang your mom and thats been working out well for Me so who really won?

[Ludo]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Sokodjou and Lashley didn't deserve lines that big given Lashleys inexperience and stamina uncertainty, and Sokodjou didn't deserve it because we KNOW his cardio is an issue.

Also, I thought Edgar has ways to win against Penn and bet him the first time around.

And Fedor's line deserved to be high, but not THAT high.

If Fedor had come in with the right gameplan and stuck to it (force a stand up fight) then he would have been worth every bit of the line he had. Werdum's striking is notoriously stiff and while he looked decent against Bigfoot, Bigfoot seemed completely perplexed by Werdum because he was constantly worried about the sub or getting dragged down I think. Back to the point though, had Fedor just used Werdum as a punching bag it would have looked alot like Werdum/JDS.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

People in this thread has WAY too much time on their hands lol.

The reason I dont bet huge favs -500 or more is because sure you'll find a lot of fights where you think one guy has no chance at winning but if you go 5-1 you only break even . It seems like a big waste of time to me . I know alot of people here got bit on Penn when he fought Edgar and that was what -600? Do you really want to have to find 6 more fights at -600 that you have to win for that 1 you lost?

I've found plenty of fights that are -110 to -150 that had a better chance of winning than most -500 favs. Personally I'd rather lose a fight at -150 that I only have to win 2 more to be ahead again than lose 1 at -600 where I have to find 7 more to get back ahead.

Soko,Fedor,Lashely, Penn etc have lost recently as big favs.

I personally dont bet anything over the -300 to -350 range and I only bet those if I consider them " a lock"

I dont care what anyone bets though because in the end its your money not mine

Good post. Now that I think about it, i really should not have even brought this up(Not sure if I even did).

[Ludo]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Oh you did. Just like you brought it up the last four or five times with Scientist about how he's too stupid to know math or something like that. You really are a bit of an elitist for a guy who left his viable career to base his entire financial future on sports betting cause thats definitely something the genii of the world are doing. It all makes sense now. You are so smart that you transcend even our wildest dreams of what it would be like to be smart. So have fun continuing to alter time and space with your massive thought process there Newton, we mere simple folk will be down here in the undergrowth trying to comprehend toilet paper and where it comes from while you redefine the cosmos unbeknownst to anyone else.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Good post. Now that I think about it, i really should not have even brought this up(Not sure if I even did).

I brought it up, because you said you bet 20u on Cain. But that was before I knew you had a 400u bankroll... so 20u to you is the same as 5u to most of us. Still a big bet, but a reasonable one I think, and not contradictory to what you had said earlier.

Bottom line, we are all arguing pointlessly... because no one here bets heavy favorites regularly and definitely not exclusively. Not me, not SPX... so it is really just a theoretical issue. A theoretical issue that you happen to be wrong about.

I for one appreciate your insight on fights. We don't see eye to eye on this issue, but we're never going to. So, let's just drop it.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Now you done pissed Ludo off...

[SPX]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Now you done pissed Ludo off...

LOL

"Realease the kraken!"

[Mr. IWS]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

So, let's just drop it.

+1

[Ludo]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Now you done pissed Ludo off...

LOL

"Realease the kraken!"

BOL

No lie, thats what I say every time I brick in his mothers mouth.

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Oh you did. Just like you brought it up the last four or five times with Scientist about how he's too stupid to know math or something like that. You really are a bit of an elitist for a guy who left his viable career to base his entire financial future on sports betting cause thats definitely something the genii of the world are doing. It all makes sense now. You are so smart that you transcend even our wildest dreams of what it would be like to be smart. So have fun continuing to alter time and space with your massive thought process there Newton, we mere simple folk will be down here in the undergrowth trying to comprehend toilet paper and where it comes from while you redefine the cosmos unbeknownst to anyone else.

Get real, it was one time, and he did the same to me. Funny how a few of you guys just can not let two dudes go at it without feeling like you have to come to the rescue. Especially when you consider that everything was turning the corner and getting friendlier. Ludo, go back and read the entire history...you know where I was about to get banned, or basically called a pussy. Where was my knight in shining armor(your dumb ass) when those posts were directed at me.

[MMA_scientist]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

^^ for the record, I was never mad.

I am just appalled that you don't see things my way. Not mad at you for it though.


Also, lol @ "release the Kracken" I am using that on the wife to impregnate her tonight.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Get real, it was one time, and he did the same to me. Funny how a few of you guys just can not let two dudes go at it without feeling like you have to come to the rescue. Especially when you consider that everything was turning the corner and getting friendlier. Ludo, go back and read the entire history...you know where I was about to get banned, or basically called a pussy. Where was my knight in shining armor(your dumb ass) when those posts were directed at me.

You were never about to get banned and I didn't call you a pussy . . . I just said that sometimes, in my view, you have to take chances if you really want to maximize your income. It's not called gambling for nothing.

In any case, it's true that we can be a little clique-ish, and that's because we've spent a lot of time getting to know each other. We have a core group and something of a family atmosphere, which I personally appreciate greatly. We also joke around a lot and newcomers sometimes get hazed a little to see how they're going to do in the day-to-day environment of the MMA board.

[Ludo]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

You mean the part where Scientist made an exaggeration in which you would get banned because SPX was pissed off at you as though that kind of thing has ever happened here? Or where SPX said that MMA betting involves times where one must refrain from being afraid of a bet simply because of the line if the reasons are good enough? Dude grow some thicker skin, take the skirt off and quit being such a fucking girl already. It's fine and dandy to start attacking people's systems of betting but as soon as someone comes back at you it's all "oh I didn't do anything! Why are you all picking on Me! Stop coming to the rescue already!" Take that shit back to grade school.

As for where I was when that shit was going on, it's simple. For one they were two things you took way out of context, for two I don't like you. I don't like the cut of your jib, I don't like your elitist attitude, I don't like your near constant knack for rubbing plenty of people the wrong way, I don't like your habitual challenging of other people's betting systems, and I don't like the way your mother uses too much teeth sometimes. Just make a knight in shining armor out of tin foil or something so you can say it's better than anyone we can produce there, Newton.

[SPX]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

Also, lol @ "release the Kracken" I am using that on the wife to impregnate her tonight.

Let us know how that works out for you. . .

[sbjj]

Re: UFC 121 Lesnar vs Velasquez

^^ for the record, I was never mad.

I am just appalled that you don't see things my way. Not mad at you for it though.


Also, lol @ "release the Kracken" I am using that on the wife to impregnate her tonight.

I know you were not mad Scientist. I wasnt either(at you).